General Election - Conservative + UKIP coalition?

robgmun · 24 Jan 2015 at 09:30

delta0 said:
That's not enough as that could be distributed across a lot of areas. Lib dems got big percentages in the last polls which didn't result in much.

They got 25% which translated to 60 seats, i wouldnt say that wasn't much and i was being very conservative when i said 15, that would be the minium

nick.lidgett · 24 Jan 2015 at 09:30

I would like to see the Conservatives win the election outright with UKIP as far away from the proceedings as possible, I cant take labour remotely seriously with their current leader.

StriderX · 24 Jan 2015 at 09:30

robgmun said:
I'm hoping for a Con + UKIP coalition

the alternative is

Labour + SNP

That's right, a bunch of idiot left wingers who doesn't know how to run a **** up in a brewery and a bunch of Scots who hate our guts controlling our country, if that doesn't make anyone vote Con or UKIP you deserve what coming to you

Neither of them truly give a damn, at least with the SNP it becomes hilarious...like the system they reside.

Dolph · 24 Jan 2015 at 09:32

robgmun said:
they get anywhere between 15-20% in polls, they'll get at least 15 seats in May

Not necessarily. In theory fptp means you could get 50%-number of constituencies of the vote and get no seats.

The concentration of the vote matters as much as the percentage. It is also why labour in 2010, despite performing worse in the popular vote than the Tories did in 1997,retained more seats, and why Cameron didn't get a majority despite getting a higher proportion of the vote than Blair did in 2005.

Tunney · 24 Jan 2015 at 09:33

delta0 said:
Polls didn't show the same outcome at the last election or the one before that ....

But Nate Silver called every US state correctly in the 2012 presidential election and a Lab/Lib Dem/Other coalition is being predicted over here using the same model.

Von Smallhausen · 24 Jan 2015 at 09:33

scorza said:
I don't think there'll be another coalition, our system is set up to avoid such an outcome remember. Ed will make a perfectly fine Prime Minister, but I rather suspect we'll end up with a Conservative majority government /shudder.

The two Ed's lack of a plan and clear fiscal incompetence makes me shudder rather more.

Mynight · 24 Jan 2015 at 09:36

Must admit snp holding power worries me. I get the feeling a lot will be blocked if it doesn't favour Scotland.

Probably deluded paranoia.

robgmun · 24 Jan 2015 at 09:39

Dolph said:
Not necessarily. In theory fptp means you could get 50%-number of constituencies of the vote and get no seats.

Of course, but real world results show that sort of thing is unlikely

Mynight said:
Must admit snp holding power worries me. I get the feeling a lot will be blocked if it doesn't favour Scotland.

Probably deluded paranoia.

Not paranoia, this is exactly what would happen

delta0 · 24 Jan 2015 at 09:42

robgmun said:
They got 25% which translated to 60 seats, i wouldnt say that wasn't much and i was being very conservative when i said 15, that would be the minium

The other parties didn't poll much higher but conservatives were over 300. I think ukip will get 1 or 2 but it means nothing in the grand scheme.

robgmun · 24 Jan 2015 at 09:48

delta0 said:
The other parties didn't poll much higher but conservatives were over 300. I think ukip will get 1 or 2 but it means nothing in the grand scheme.

1 or 2 is incredibility naive and completely out of touch with the general public, UKIP is far more popular then you might imagine, but we'll just have to see in the next GE

delta0 · 24 Jan 2015 at 09:56

Tunney said:
But Nate Silver called every US state correctly in the 2012 presidential election and a Lab/Lib Dem/Other coalition is being predicted over here using the same model.

You only have to go through history to see that every party has won a second term.

robgmun · 24 Jan 2015 at 09:58

delta0 said:
You only have to go through history to see that every party has won a second term.

So are you thinking i would be another Tony/Lib government? How would that work when the Libdem vote has collapsed?

BDEE · 24 Jan 2015 at 10:03

scorza said:
Ed will make a perfectly fine Prime Minister,

Thanks for the best joke of 2015 so far - Hilarious and had me in stitches!

delta0 · 24 Jan 2015 at 10:10

robgmun said:
So are you thinking i would be another Tony/Lib government? How would that work when the Libdem vote has collapsed?

Not necessarily. A majority or a mix up of smaller parties. Conservative will get the most seats again. They weren't far off a complete majority last time.

robgmun · 24 Jan 2015 at 10:34

scorza said:
I don't think there'll be another coalition, our system is set up to avoid such an outcome remember. Ed will make a perfectly fine Prime Minister.

Picture the scene. You have just filmed a hard-hitting party political broadcast with a 91 year old war hero. It’s strong stuff, and you think it will get people interested in your party. So, at the end of the PPB, you put your party’s website up on the screen. Except, instead of the correct URL (www.labour.org.uk/harry), you send them to www.labour.org/harry, a parked domain that belongs to someone else and used to for job recruitment. “But we don’t need millions for this election, as we’re going to win the internetz.

**** up ......... brewery

Don't let these jokers in

XeNoN89 · 24 Jan 2015 at 10:35

Please don't let labour get in, they will crash our economy again

As for Ed Millibland as PM....LOL

robgmun · 24 Jan 2015 at 10:45

Ed will make a perfectly fine Prime Minister.

http://awkwardedmilibandmoments.tumblr.com/

Cosimo · 24 Jan 2015 at 10:49

scorza said:
I Ed will make a perfectly fine Prime Minister.

Joke of the week....

Even Gromit could do a better job.

Zethor · 24 Jan 2015 at 10:59

XeNoN89 said:
Please don't let labour get in, they will crash our economy again

As for Ed Millibland as PM....LOL

When exactly did Labour crash the economy?

Will21st · 24 Jan 2015 at 11:00

just imagine Ed Balls in charge of the treasury.... shudder.

Con+UKIP or Con majority, Labour+SNP and Libs would be a nightmare scenario.