Greece Elections

Stretch · 5 Feb 2015 at 01:33

European Central Bank toughens its stance on Greece

This is pretty serious for Greece. It's maybe a warning shot, but if an agreement can't be reached in the next few weeks Greece will surly be out of the Euro. It doesn't look like they'll be much left to change into Drachmas.

dowie · 5 Feb 2015 at 01:43

after all the rhetoric the Greeks will either have to face reality and accept that they're not going to get any big changes or they'll have to take a huge risk and leave the eurozone

I guess the finance minister has talked a good fight for the domestic audience, I'm not sure whether he'll keep it up when it becomes apparent there is still very little room for negotiation.

Stretch · 5 Feb 2015 at 01:59

They should leave.

Apparently many people in Greece stopped paying a number of "unpopular" taxes (is there any other kind?), in anticipation of Syriza being elected. They're now in a whole lot more trouble than they though. Money will run out in March.

The rest of Europe should be preparing to protect itself from the fallout.

dunker · 5 Feb 2015 at 02:26

europe needs to leave the EU.

Iraklis F.C. · 5 Feb 2015 at 04:06

Political pressing http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-on-greek-government-debt-is-really-all-about

Was predicted too in December. ALso this happens hours before the meeting with the german finance minister, coincidence?

Freddie1980 · 5 Feb 2015 at 07:49

dowie said:
they lost 75%...

the ECB buying bonds form you after you've taken a 75% hit on them doesn't change the fact that you've taken a 75% hit, nor does Greece making payments on the newly restructured debt change that - it just means you don't take a further hit on what you're left with, for the moment at least

from the link posted by Dolph:
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Economic_Adjustment_Programme_for_Greece

no one is compensating them for that if that is the impression you're under - the ECB buying the restructured debt from banks and lending Greece money to carry on making payments on debt doesn't change anything with regards to the 75% loss the various commercial banks have suffered on their Greek bond holdings

Debt write off doesn't make the debt disappear, you may recall when banks agreed to the original write off banks like RBS turned around and put interest rates on its variable mortgage rate. So all thats happened is the responsibility for paying off Greek debts has fallen to everyone else in Europe regaurdless of whether their in the eurozone or not. Greece should just f off from the euro so everyone can enjoy Greece for what it is, a cheap holiday in southern Europe.

Westyfield2 · 5 Feb 2015 at 16:47

Stretch said:
European Central Bank toughens its stance on Greece

This is pretty serious for Greece. It's maybe a warning shot, but if an agreement can't be reached in the next few weeks Greece will surly be out of the Euro. It doesn't look like they'll be much left to change into Drachmas.

That's a massive shot across the bows! I'd say the chances of a grexit are increasing.

Freddie1980 · 5 Feb 2015 at 18:26

Unless they have plan in place to deal with the 280m euro debt left behind if Greece leaves I'd wager the Greeks are the ones with the power here. The other Euro nations can't allow Greece to default on its debts and expect it remain in the union which is what everyside wants (not me, I just want cheap holidays again) so it's diffxult to see what actual pressure they can put on Greece.

Iraklis F.C. · 5 Feb 2015 at 18:47

So, its an issue of cheap holidays then? No wonder the world is going down the drain, on a daily basis.

But thats just fine with me, i didnt expect anything more than this, i am outraged by the idiots surrounding me for allowing this country (and me personally) reading insulting comments like these. But what difference can a single man do in all this madness, so be it..

Freddie1980 · 5 Feb 2015 at 22:33

Iraklis F.C. said:
So, its an issue of cheap holidays then? No wonder the world is going down the drain, on a daily basis.

But thats just fine with me, i didnt expect anything more than this, i am outraged by the idiots surrounding me for allowing this country (and me personally) reading insulting comments like these. But what difference can a single man do in all this madness, so be it..

I would imgaine tourism and its related benfits makes up a sizeable portion of your economy so I wouldn't be so belligerent and any prospect that has the potential to pull Greece towards a more secure economic footing in this long term. Either way Greek has a lot more pain on the way no matter path it chooses.

Freddie1980 · 5 Feb 2015 at 22:50

Iraklis F.C. said:
So, its an issue of cheap holidays then? No wonder the world is going down the drain, on a daily basis.

But thats just fine with me, i didnt expect anything more than this, i am outraged by the idiots surrounding me for allowing this country (and me personally) reading insulting comments like these. But what difference can a single man do in all this madness, so be it..

I would imgaine tourism and its related benfits makes up a sizeable portion of your economy so I wouldn't be so belligerent and any prospect that has the potential to pull Greece towards a more secure economic footing in this long term. Either way Greek has a lot more pain on the way no matter path it chooses.

dowie · 5 Feb 2015 at 23:08

Freddie1980 said:
Debt write off doesn't make the debt disappear, you may recall when banks agreed to the original write off banks like RBS turned around and put interest rates on its variable mortgage rate. So all thats happened is the responsibility for paying off Greek debts has fallen to everyone else in Europe regaurdless of whether their in the eurozone or not. Greece should just f off from the euro so everyone can enjoy Greece for what it is, a cheap holiday in southern Europe.

nah a debt write down means exactly that - a portion of the debt (bonds) held be private creditors at the time were subject to a write down the total effect of which was a 75% loss for them... (it was IIRC a combination of losing approx 50% of the face vale of the debt and accepting lower interest payments going forward) - that part of the debt has, if you like, 'disappeared'

dowie · 5 Feb 2015 at 23:10

Iraklis F.C. said:
Political pressing http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-on-greek-government-debt-is-really-all-about

Was predicted too in December. ALso this happens hours before the meeting with the german finance minister, coincidence?

probably not, but what do you expect - Greek bonds are junk, the only reason the ECB was accepting them was as a result of the bailout plan, the new govt has already made changes to that agreement and stated it wants to renegotiate, why then should the ECB accept junk bonds - unless a new agreement is reached then it is a fairly sensible move

Stretch · 21 Feb 2015 at 17:09

The deal yesterday seems to confirm what most of us knew already. Greece either needs to continue with "austerity" and pay up, or default and leave the euro. They don't appear ready to leave the euro.

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31564846

It's business as usual, with creditors dictating events.

Dolph · 21 Feb 2015 at 17:28

Shock as Greece discovers democracy cannot force another group with no vote to give you money

dowie · 21 Feb 2015 at 18:05

it is just a bridging loan essentially and they'll not have any real room for change at the moment if they want this extra 4 months of funding...

Spain wouldn't have been too happy at the moment to see a pro-austerity Greek govt succeeding in any negotiations right now.

I guess they've got 4 months to come up with some solutions but I really don't think they're going to get their creditors to budge too much (they'll have to be fairly creative with any proposals), I think they're basically just going to have to keep on with the posturing while their general population slowly starts to realise that not much is going to change in reality unless they fancy going all out and just exiting the eurozone.

EdGey · 21 Feb 2015 at 18:18

Now is definitely the time to buy a few houses in Greece.

Stretch · 21 Feb 2015 at 20:35

dowie said:
it is just a bridging loan essentially and they'll not have any real room for change at the moment if they want this extra 4 months of funding...

It's not even a bridging loan. They need to present a "list of reforms" to creditors by Monday on order to have the loan ratified. "list of reforms" is just code for austerity, i.e. show how you're going to pay the money back or you don't get any more.

Danthus · 21 Feb 2015 at 20:51

It will be interesting to see what the Greek public do when the realise the promises of Syriza were all a load of hot air.

Christmas themed thank · 21 Feb 2015 at 20:53

Why don't they sell off some of the bricks that are holding up the derelict Olympic stadium?

Greece Elections

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