Not sure if troll or just stupid (you decide)

estebanrey

estebanrey

estebanrey

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Am I being trolled on Youtube? I never underestimate people's stupidity so I'm never really sure.

I'm not sure if I can post the video because it ptobably contains swearing, but it is Keith Lemon, Holly and Fern's appearance on Jonathan Ross where he makes them play the Russian Roulette egg game.

So there are four people (Holly, Fern, Lemon and Ross) and six eggs. Five of the eggs have been hard-boiled and one is normal. They each take it in turns to take an egg and smash it against their forehead, obviously hoping to get a hard boiled one and not get egg on their face (literally).


Anyhoo, Holly says something along the lines of "I'll go first because I've got a better chance of not getting the bad egg, is that right?" which I criticised for being mathematically incorrect. Youtube being Youtube I get a couple of people arguing with me.

Despite explaining why they all have the same chance of losing no matter when they choose to go, a couple of guys just aren't having it.

So here's the debate , am I being trolled or are these guys just thick?

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brb need a magnifying glass

Edit: If Holly goes first and gets a hard boiled egg, then surely the person who goes after her (and so on) will have an increased chance of getting the bad egg since there is now one less egg to choose from? Or do they just put it back and mix them up again?
 
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estebanrey said:
Anyhoo, Holly says something along the lines of "I'll go first because I've got a better chance of not getting the bad egg, is that right?" which I criticised for being mathematically incorrect. Youtube being Youtube I get a couple of people arguing with me.

Despite explaining why they all have the same chance of losing no matter when they choose to go, a couple of guys just aren't having it.
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At the moment I'm not getting it.
Holly has a 1 in 6 chance of getting the normal egg
The next person has a 1 in 5 chance of getting the normal egg and so on.
or am I missing something?
 
It depends on how the game was played.

If they all picked an egg one by one from the 6 and then proceeded to go around breaking them then they would each have had the same chance of getting the bad egg. The ones who went later would have had less choice but their chance of getting the bad one would still have been 1 in 6.

If they pick an egg and then break it and then it leads to the next person, then things are different. If the first person gets a good egg then there are only 4 good and 1 bad egg left. Thus a 1 in 5 chance of getting the bad egg. If this person gets a good egg the next person has a 1 in 5 chance. etc. As soon as someone gets a bad egg the game is over.
 
Just watched the clip.

They take it in turns to hit an egg each time then the next person comes up.
Your logic doesn't work as the person afterwards has a higher chance of picking a bad egg.
 
geuben said:
It depends on how the game was played.

If they all picked an egg one by one from the 6 and then proceeded to go around breaking them then they would each have had the same chance of getting the bad egg. The ones who went later would have had less choice but their chance of getting the bad one would still have been 1 in 6.

If they pick an egg and then break it and then it leads to the next person, then things are different. If the first person gets a good egg then there are only 4 good and 1 bad egg left. Thus a 1 in 5 chance of getting the bad egg. If this person gets a good egg the next person has a 1 in 5 chance. etc. As soon as someone gets a bad egg the game is over.
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But then that isn't really Russian roulette is it? The point is that the risk increases as the game goes on.
 
spoffle said:
But then that isn't really Russian roulette is it? The point is that the risk increases as the game goes on.
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If it wasn't clear, I haven't seen the clip. I didn't know how they were playing the game...



... I was trying to explain to the OP he was probably wrong in a nice way.
 
Dimple said:
At the moment I'm not getting it.
Holly has a 1 in 6 chance of getting the normal egg
The next person has a 1 in 5 chance of getting the normal egg and so on.
or am I missing something?
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But "the next person" also has a 1 in 6 chance they won't have to go at all because Holly might get the egg

Holly = 1 in 6 chance = 16.6666%
Next person = 5 in 6 times (Holly not getting the bad egg) 1 in 5 = 16.6666%

At each stage the next person has a higher chance of the getting the bad egg, but this is offset by the same magnitude due to the fact the person before might end the game before you even get a go.

They all have a 16.6666% chance at the start of the game, so going first is no advantage.
 
geuben said:
If it wasn't clear, I haven't seen the clip. I didn't know how they were playing the game...



... I was trying to explain to the OP he was probably wrong in a nice way.
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The OP's wrong, that's pretty clear I think. My point was that if they are playing it any other way, then they're not really playing it properly so I would have thought that it's safe to discount the possibility of them having played it different ways without having seen the video.
 
estebanrey said:
But "the next person" also has a 1 in 6 chance they won't have to go at all because Holly might get the egg

Holly = 1 in 6 chance = 16.6666%
Next person = 5 in 6 times (Holly not getting the bad egg) 1 in 5 = 16.6666%

At each stage the next person has a higher chance of the getting the bad egg, but this is offset by the same magnitude due to the fact the person before might end the game before you even get a go.

They all have a 16.6666% chance at the start of the game, so going first is no advantage.
Click to expand...

So when there are 2 eggs left, are you still suggesting that the chance is 16.666%?

I feel like you're misunderstanding on purpose.
 
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