More egg probabilities

[arc@css]

We need a few more egg yolks.

 

[dowie]

The funny thing is I spoke to a few people at work about the Monty hall & a number didn't believe me. I ended up making a VBA Monty hall simulator I can send them in excel & run off 50,000 examples of the win rates of switching & sticking!.

when it was originally published mathematicians wrote in claiming the switching was wrong, probability questions often throw people

I reckon the easiest way of demonstrating it for people who don't get the principle initially is to take a more extreme example - say a pack of cards, the aim is to pick the ace of spades... contestant picks a card, the host flips over 50 other cards all of which aren't the ace of spades, contestant can the stick or switch... tis much more intuitive then that switching is beneficial

 

[Zogger]

question doesn't actually say how the player wins the game so not surprised it confused people

 

[tbyeah]

question doesn't actually say how the player wins the game so not surprised it confused people

I just assumed you don't want runny egg all over your face.

 

[Cyberangel11]

It's not simple. :/

Do you think it's as simple as 1/5 is better than 1/6?

If she picked 2 and now 6 gone, her pick is still 2, which is 1 out of 5 possible eggs, changing it to 5 wouldn't do anything, it's just another of 1/5 possible eggs.

If 6 is gone, egg 2 doesn't become less likely to win.

 

[Sliver]

It's not simple. :/

Indeedy. I find it eggstremely difficult.

 

[Zethor]

If 6 is gone, egg 2 doesn't become less likely to win.

True but the rest of the eggs will be more likely to win.