The thing i'd be more worried about is that businesses will be more tempted to hire people under the 25 year old threshold so that they won't have to pay £9 p/h, putting millions of over 25's at risk of struggling to find work. Especially in unskilled positions.
It is basically YTS through the back door. No company in the land is going to pay £9 an hour when they can pay less and get the same work done. I can see a lot of people in their mid 20's struggling to find work come 2019 and because the NLW will be a legal requirement, employers won't be able to offer over 25's less under any circumstances.
that seems to be the problem people have with it - entitlement issues/envy
omg I was significantly better off than poor people now I'm only moderately better off than poor people
I don't think so. I think it is more to do with people feeling they have worked hard to better themselves and in one policy decision the relative benefits from doing so have been taken away. The incentive has been dashed.
For example, my wife has just spent the last 2 years doing college courses and working two jobs (one for free as a volunteer from 08:15-1400 and her second as a paid employee from 15:00-21:00) to get into a school to be a TA. Yes believe it or not full time TA posts are
that hard to get into even for someone who has taught performing arts for 20 years (the last 7 at degree level) and has spent 2 years volunteering at the same school.
Her pay is now frozen for 4 years and in 2019 she will be earning less than NLW (which presumably the school with then have to raise by law). She is doing a specialised role in working with autism and given her past teaching experience this makes her very useful to the school. But the school are bound by law to pay a certain wage and will do everything they can not to pay more because year on year they get less funding.
So should my wife decide to move on or retire, who will fill that gap? What incentive will there be for up and coming people who want to be a TA to go through all the stress and hassle of college courses and working for free to possibly maybe get into a role which then pays no more than a job stacking shelves in Tesco? By nature we all like the path of least resistance or we take a more painful path for more gains. Sure, perhaps a person at Tesco won't get as many days off and has to work differing hours but are those negatives worth more or less than working part-time for free for 2 years as well as doing a 2nd job just to be in the position to simply
apply for a TA role? (no guarantee you will even find work after it).
It isn't about envy it is very much about incentive. My wife has worked damned hard to get herself into this position, and made sacrifices for a chance to get into a role which better fits around her lifestyle aspirations. In 2019 what incentive will there be for people wanting to do the same when they could earn just as much in Tesco without any qualifications or experience?
There are none and thus it limits the interest in such roles and will
eventually lead to a skills shortage. Unless pay increases commesurate with experience and skills. But with ever decreasing school budgets is that likely? Hence 1-2-1 support for autistic children may be shelved or the ratios between TA and pupils increased meaning a lower quality of education for each child overall.
If you are not going to pay over and above NLW for the skills and experience needed to do a job, people won't do it. Sure, in the short term the roles will likely get filled but in long term people will not bother with the hassle (pain) of getting experience and qualifications if there is no commesurate benefit (gain) at the end of it. So you start to get skills shortages in the public sector. This is the exact same thing happening in the NHS with nurses and a big reason why we are having to import them from all over the world.
We will see the same with child care. The burden the government has so flippanlty foisted onto the childcare industry in order to win votes is going to put many places out of business or force them to raise prices for everyone for childcare outside of the free hours. Parents can ill aford the prices as they are and the benefits from the increase in free childcare becomes null and void if prices have to rise. More kids will be taken out of childcare and more parents will stay at home instead of going out to work so everyone loses. The government does not even financially match the working costs of the free childcare which is pretty lame considering it is a policy they have
forced on the industry.