I have a million £ and want to give you some of it....

I'd pick a guaranteed £10k over a possible (but unlikely) £100k win any day, so #1 for me.

We've got a raffle at work where you pay £1, pick a number between 1 and 45. The winner is decided by the National Lottery 'Bonus Ball'. The prize is £40. I won't play it because you're statistically likely to lose money. One guy won two weeks in a row. I guess I'm financially cautious.
 
It needs to be a sliding scale rather than a set increase. 80% for 200k is too easy. If It was 80% for 20k it'd be a harder judgement as to wether to gamble.
 
estebanrey said:
You have a 90% chance of winning £100k so far from unlikely.
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Yeah, I read the post wrong. Thought we were going from £10-100k for some reason.

I'd like to revise my choice and pick 12. An 88% chance of winning enough to be mortgage free at 28. That would be epic.
 
estebanrey said:
There is no 'right' answer, more of an insight into how people think.
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not sure what you mean by 'right' but there is an optimum answer (in terms of £s)

50 would be the optimum number to pick, every other choice has a lower expected value

obviously 'utility' can come into it and poor people might want lower numbers than 50... and likewise stupid people might want higher numbers than 50
 
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number 1 but multiple times :)

Reasons
1) you never said we only had to play once
2) you never said the number would be removed after it was picked

Theoretically if you played the game 100 times you could get 100 x 1 x 10,000 which is the same as gambling for the 100 with extremely low odds of winning, it would just take longer :)
 
dowie said:
not sure what you mean by 'right' but there is an optimum answer (in terms of £s)

50 would be the optimum number to pick, every other choice has a lower expected value

obviously 'utility' can come into it and poor people might want lower numbers than 50... and likewise stupid people might want higher numbers than 50
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I don't really follow that - it's just an individual weighing up of risk and reward, Shirley?

Basically if we don't think like you we are poor or stupid :p
 
1

1 is a guaranteed £10,000. Zero risk.

If you are just some internet rando giving away £££ with a weird game like this, chances are you would pick a number close to 1 if not 1 itself to minimise your charitable pay out.

I'll have my £10k please.
 
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