Am I doing it wrong?
51.9 - 7 + 4 = 48.9 for leave.
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Yes, assuming I remembered the numbers right.
You say it was 51.9 to 48.1. If people switched:
Leave would go to down by 7% of 51.9% and up by 4% of 48.1% = 50.2%
Remain would go down by 4% of 48.1% and up by 7% of 51.9% = 49.8%