Brexit thread - what happens next

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Broadly, the short while bit is the problem with the tax haven, borrow and spend to favour businesses model: the markets won't have the confidence we can keep it up for any length of time. Plus, it's no good becoming a tax haven, without the trade deals in place, again slowing us down. Finally, if Scotland splits, they, Germany, France and Ireland can make a play for our services industry anyway -- poaching staff and reducing tax revenues from a hub like London. We aren't the only ones familiar with stimulus measures, and in the end, the larger, more attractive market would win (by sheer attrition if not prudent leadership).

That makes sense. Thank you. I would think Scotland would be more likely to wait it out. If by some miracle, leaving turns out to be a good idea it might be in their interest to stay. If it looks like we are royally screwed by the EU they can leave UK. Would they then be able to join the EU?


They could. But I've seen no indication that the Tories would consider it; it would, after all, be effectively admitting they've adopted the wrong strategy over the last six years. They've put too much skin on the line to admit that the deficit isn't the be all and end all now.

We're also in a much worse position to adopt stimulus now than we were six years ago.

I accept there probably isn't enough money to go around now so cutting revenue won't work or would be unsustainable. Just trying to think of positives to keep the UK afloat.

Most of this thread and most of the media seems focused on looking inward, laying blame and finding ways to get out of the decision. There is very little effort going into actually devising a plan. It's just all panic and no action.
 
If scotland leaves we should rebuild Hadrians wall and mount it with machine guns and 40mm cannons. :D keep those darn Scots off our England! :p

Yes, and the border will become the new Calais with hordes of grabigrants making cardboard shanty towns whilst they wait to climb into the back of haggis lorries in their attempt to reach the promised land :p:p
 
view from Australia

http://theconversation.com/australia-should-aim-for-a-trade-deal-with-the-uk-post-brexit-61591

Brexit may be bad for sharemarkets in the short term, but it could present an opportunity for more liberal trade in the long run. The Australian government is negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the European Union (EU) but it may be better to put that on a very slow track because there are advantages in completing an FTA with the UK first.

The UK is not a member of the Eurozone and has adjusted to the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis, putting it in a manageable position. The UK is Australia’s eighth largest two-way trading partner and accounts for around 25% of the total trade of the EU’s 28 members with Australia. Services account for around half of Australia’s trade with the UK.

Germany’s total trade is smaller: it is Australia’s tenth largest trading partner and services contribute less than a quarter of the total value of trade. OECD analysis shows Germany protects its services industries more than the UK.

There are advantages to Australia’s completing an FTA with the UK first. It would be quicker and easier than negotiating with the EU and more likely produce better access for Australian services businesses to the UK market. As a member of the EU, the UK is obliged to follow a common EU position. Greater German restrictions on foreign services suppliers would make the EU position as a whole less liberal.

Historically, the UK has been a leading advocate of free trade in Europe. If it’s freed of the requirement to support consensus in the EU, it is likely to be even more liberal outside it.


As demonstrated in Australia’s latest FTAs and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) a leading focus for opening markets today is to remove restrictions on foreign services business, such as banking and accountancy. Traditionally, trade liberalisation has focused on reducing trade barriers - tariffs. Most tariffs on goods worldwide today are low. This is also feature of the Trans-Pacific Trade and Investment Partnership (TPIP) which the EU and the US are struggling to complete.

Personally I think lots of people are still being swayed by the whole project fear aspect in the media and seeing some volatility in the markets... I'm pretty positive about the whole thing - some sort of association agreement with the EU or an EFTA type solution would be great for us (I personally don't care much about immigration unlike say some of the working class from Barnsley seen on Channel 4 news but unfortunately we might have to harm part of our deal with the EU in order to get concessions over free movement). But overall, in the long term, we're probably going to do rather well. The EU can lumber on regardless and deal with any future eurozone crisis themselves.
 
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The main reason I'm worried is because I don't trust our government to sort things out. The impression ive got from growing up trying to keep up with the news as much as possible, is that the government couldn't organise a bun fight in a bakery without the EU... (Judging by how bad they are at managing everything WITH the EU...)
 
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The main reason I'm worried is because I don't trust our government to sort things out. The impression ive got from growing up trying to keep up with the news as much as possible, is that the government couldn't organise a bun fight in a bakery...

In my experience, that is broadly true of all aspects of the Public sector ;)
 
basically, no one expected leave to win.

now that it did they're all unsure as to what to do and are just resigning and running away from the problems. Typical.
 
Could be the first multi-million person march on Westminster (of modern times) and there won't be a building left.

It's terrifying and actually fear that would happen.

Project fear? The referendum had no legal right, it was advisory. IF the government choose to ignore it which is their DEMOCRATIC right you are advocated a violent revolution?
 
Project fear? The referendum had no legal right, it was advisory. IF the government choose to ignore it which is their DEMOCRATIC right you are advocated a violent revolution?

I completely see your point, but when the government says they'd honour the outcome of the referendum whatever the result they sort of back themselves into a corner.
 
Project fear? The referendum had no legal right, it was advisory. IF the government choose to ignore it which is their DEMOCRATIC right you are advocated a violent revolution?

Common it would be a perfect opportunity to intern them in work camps for their own good!
 
Extremely. Look at the Boston MP, supported remain when 80% of his constituents voted out. Can't see him getting returned.

Seems a very closely contested seat, aside from 2010, and even then other minor parties are present besides UKIP and Labour. After the recent shambolic backtracking and lack of plan from Leave and even Farage in the media, I'd bet on it being a pretty much even tossup between the lot, with the increased turnout from a straight binary vote being lost.
 
Could be the first multi-million person march on Westminster (of modern times) and there won't be a building left.

It's terrifying and actually fear that would happen.

The chance of a multi million person march occurring is precisely nil... :rolleyes:

There might be a few violent protests of a few hundred people... Tear gas and batons, and send them all home (no pun intended). As the leave side seem to like saying so much "they'll get over it". :p
 
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