Brexit thread - what happens next

[datalol-jack]

However the compromise tends to be in the favour of the stronger party (in this case probably the EU) unless they've got a reason to be nice about it (which they don't).

I suspect we'll end up with the short end of the stick as we've thrown away a reasonably influential position within the EU, and the likes of Farage have annoyed them, which combined with their own internal issue means that they don't have any major reason to compromise too much in our favour.

"Who's laughing now?!" - Juncker's memo to Farage upon our descent to the EEA status They're like kids, honestly.

 

[dowie]

However the compromise tends to be in the favour of the stronger party (in this case probably the EU) unless they've got a reason to be nice about it (which they don't).

Maybe... however the idea that no compromise/deal will be made and we'll have to simply go with the EU's position seems a bit dubious. It is possible that if they're not prepared to make concessions then we don't come to a deal and simply leave (well not 'simply' as it won't be simple at all...).

 

[Greebo]

I really don't think Corbyn is going to go. He has the support of Labour party members and that's what he's all about. He thinks he's doing the right thing by sticking to his principles and the mandate to lead as set out by his election.
He's not going to get elected but I don't think the Labour part membership really care. They would rather have a leader who was at least slightly left wing but unelectable, than a centre-right leader who stands a chance.

Agreed. We dont need an opposition party which is just a copy of the government party like when Blair won.

But the other MP's want power. What happened to sticking to your political beliefs and principals?

 

[Trifid]

Another small problem with the EFTA arrangement is the bilateral cluster**** of it all -- it'll be costly and laborious as it is for the Swiss (though Switzerland never minded bureaucracy as such). Again eating into those promised money pots for the NHS, hospitals, infrastructure, science, regions, farmers, infinite fish, etc.

I can see an economic argument for EFTA in allowing us to conduct our own trade deals. Long term growth through this arrangement could enable us to be richer in 10 years time. I don't see any benefit of being out completely, the EU has been very clear, if you want full market access you need to accept freedom of movement and contributing to the budget.

 

[kitch9]

That's what we had!!!

Nope.

In-work, housing, etc benefits are all available immediately, provided the applicant can prove they are in some sort of work, part time or otherwise.

Its only out of work benefits where you wait. Basically people can move where they want, say they are working and claim almost as many benefits as an out of work person would.

 

[Arazi]

Interesting to read that Vodafone is thinking about upping and heading to a EU base given the referendum vote. Hadn't realised such a small percentage of their revenue was derived from UK markets.

I think we may see quite a few international firms headquartered in the UK head on over to the Continent in the next year or so. Those with significant non-GBP revenues would be mad not to do so.

It's a bit like drug dealers, one gets taken out, another steps in.

 

[Greebo]

Self governance is something that I remain skeptical about until we know the details but its highly likely that we will initially roll 100% of EU law into our own post exit for time constraints alone. Many of European laws make absolute sense anyway, why would we want to drop them? It has to be said, we only ever hear about the daft ones, which if we had representatives who actually turned up we could have probably prevented anyway. Regardless, look at the EEA and you'll see that we would have to accept many of the new EU laws anyway.

The only actual positive I can see in this is fishing quotas, IIRC are not part of an EEA agreement, but it seems like we are wrecking everything for an improvement in one industry, still confused.

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...t-mean-greater-catches?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Wouldnt hold my breath over that helping. Seems like its our government who sold the vast majority of our fishing quotas to foreign large corporatiosn when the majority of europen countries insisted that only their country's boats could use the quota. Again Eu blamed for something that was in UK's control.

 

[platypus]

Hmm well my MP has said he intends to vote against article 50 in the house should it go through that way, and to support staying in the EU. I wonder how many others do, and if its enough to stop it happening? Unlikely I'd have thought.

 

[datalol-jack]

I can see an economic argument for EFTA in allowing us to conduct our own trade deals. Long term growth through this arrangement could enable us to be richer in 10 years time. I don't see any benefit of being out completely, the EU has been very clear, if you want full market access you need to accept freedom of movement and contributing to the budget.

That still assumes us deregulating heavily, taxing higher initially but not strictly businesses or higher earners (which would be divisive), borrowing cheaply to cover spending and deficits (unlikely if confidence in us drops) and signing decent trade deals with at least North America, China and India, which would be hard to even negotiate in ten years of uncertainty without an army of, you guessed it, expert staff which we simply don't have.

In short, forget the sugar-coated garbage Minford's peddling, his core assumptions are flawed, and think of how much damage you'd need to do politically, socially and economically to get as close to perfect competition as possible -- it won't happen.

 

[Six6siX]

It's a bit like drug dealers, one gets taken out, another steps in.

Why would they choose the UK?

 

[LOAM]

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...t-mean-greater-catches?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Wouldnt hold my breath over that helping. Seems like its our government who sold the vast majority of our fishing quotas to foreign large corporatiosn when the majority of europen countries insisted that only their country's boats could use the quota. Again Eu blamed for something that was in UK's control.

In that case then I see nothing.

 

[Greebo]

I can see an economic argument for EFTA in allowing us to conduct our own trade deals. Long term growth through this arrangement could enable us to be richer in 10 years time. I don't see any benefit of being out completely, the EU has been very clear, if you want full market access you need to accept freedom of movement and contributing to the budget.

Problem is some of the new PM candidates have already stated their case the red line is freedom of movement and that comes before trade if compromises have to be made as the people have voted.

 

[kitch9]

Self governance is something that I remain skeptical about until we know the details but its highly likely that we will initially roll 100% of EU law into our own post exit for time constraints alone. Many of European laws make absolute sense anyway, why would we want to drop them? It has to be said, we only ever hear about the daft ones, which if we had representatives who actually turned up we could have probably prevented anyway. Regardless, look at the EEA and you'll see that we would have to accept many of the new EU laws anyway.

The only actual positive I can see in this is fishing quotas, IIRC are not part of an EEA agreement, but it seems like we are wrecking everything for an improvement in one industry, still confused.

The companies that trade with the EU will have to abide by their rules, those that don't, won't.

At the minute as an EU member EVERYONE has to abide by their laws.

 

[Mr Jack]

The companies that trade with the EU will have to abide by their rules, those that don't, won't.

At the minute as an EU member EVERYONE has to abide by their laws.

So instead of having one set of laws that manufacturers and traders have to abide by, we'll now have two sets and instead of it being trivially easy for any company that currently trades in the UK to start exporting to the EU, they'll now have two different sets of rule to keep track of.

Why is this a win exactly?

 

[dowie]

I can see an economic argument for EFTA in allowing us to conduct our own trade deals. Long term growth through this arrangement could enable us to be richer in 10 years time. I don't see any benefit of being out completely, the EU has been very clear, if you want full market access you need to accept freedom of movement and contributing to the budget.

that would be ideal for me, my vote wasn't about immigration - however a lot of people did vote with immigration as a factor and the UK negotiators do need to take that into account and will likely be pushing for some form of control/curbs to freedom of movement - such as going back to pre-Maastricht arrangements where a job offer is needed, or introducing(probably quite generous) caps (I think the points system probably isn't going to be acceptable from the EU side)

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...t-mean-greater-catches?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Wouldnt hold my breath over that helping. Seems like its our government who sold the vast majority of our fishing quotas to foreign large corporatiosn when the majority of europen countries insisted that only their country's boats could use the quota. Again Eu blamed for something that was in UK's control.

that is because we are generally far more liberal and open when it comes to trade and for that same reason we'll find it far quicker and easier to conduct trade agreements with the rest of the world than the EU does as per the Aussie opinion piece that they'd be better off pushing for a trade deal with the UK as it will be conducted far quicker - issue with the EU is that any trade deals frequently do get held up by random minority interests from one or other member state and end up as a sort of compromise... they're certaily not ideal for our more open approach to trade

EFTA + our own trade deals would be great for our economy, unfortunately the immigration/free movement aspect means some form of compromise will need to be found

 

[do_ron_ron]

yup, that is one thing that has become apparent in the past few days - politicians are so out of touch with the population

first we've had brexit which over half the country supports but most politicians don't

now we've got Corbyn who had a huge mandate from his party but that the vast majority of Labour politicians (or at least MPs) want to get rid of

Corbyn is right to say he's not going to step down and will throw his hat in the ring again as he had such huge support from the grass roots membership last time... just because he's not the 'right choice' as far as the establishment is concerned isn't necessarily going to cut it - that is the thing about democracy, you don't always get to dictate to people re: what is good for them

ditto to the EU - the establishment thinks it is the 'wrong' decision... unfortunately for them there isn't much hope of reversing it - other than some clutching at straws arguments that we could have a general election on some remain platform or the SNP could supposedly block it...

If anything the last few days have been good for democracy and two fingers up at Brussels bureaucrats and UK politicians who'd want to ignore the will of the people under some flawed presumption that they know whats best.

JC is a manifestation of the people's discontent as is Farage. It has little to do with the EU for most people. It is the wider social and political discontent with the way the country is governed. We have had the Crash which was due to politicians in the US and UK removing banking controls. The resulting Crash the people could have dealt with if to use our Chancellor "we are all in it together". If the pain had been evenly spread people would have grudgingly accepted and carried on. What we have seen is the rich enriching itself further at the hands of the poor with Govt encouragement. The bankers getting bailouts and then sticking two fingers up to the rest when it came to bonuses and moaning about the few safeguards put in place to prevent another Crash.
The pain has seemed to them(the large majority) to be one sided and the anger has been growing. The lack of any ability of Govt to do something about jobs and the economy fuelled this discontent.
Farage with the like minded media channelled this discontent into anti-EU sentiment and the resultant mess.
The sad thing, as other posters have pointed out is that these same people are going to have to bear the costs of the mess. Even if you believe the most ardent Brexiter there will still be years of transition/negotiation before new arrangements come into force. There is still a cost to all this and they will bear it.
Will it solve the problem? No, because the haves will still prosper disproportionally at the hands of the poor who will lose more services/benefits.
Personally, I think the worst has yet to come when the people see this rosy future is nothing other than the old system with a new name.

 

[Phonesis]

Corbyn situation: Dire. But he's right to stay firm. Be interesting to see what happens.

Brexit: Less dire than few days ago. Maybe stabilising. Maybe.

 

[datalol-jack]

So instead of having one set of laws that manufacturers and traders have to abide by, we'll now have two sets and instead of it being trivially easy for any company that currently trades in the UK to start exporting to the EU, they'll now have two different sets of rule to keep track of.

Why is this a win exactly?

Don't mention Imperial Measures!

 

[Arazi]

Apart from your hero worshiping Farage, No!

Oh ok

 

[do_ron_ron]

I have to say though, I'm at a loss as to who in the Labour party actually voted for Corbyn. I work in a school and all of the teachers I've spoken to (who you would expect to be quite left-leaning) can't stand him and think he has to go.

This is one of the right wing papers myths. Having just retired from teaching and worked in a number of schools over the years I have found that teachers tend to be more Conservative. Left? Left wing of the Tory party maybe. My last PT was an ardent Thatcherite. I have attended many conferences/external working groups and have yet to meet this far left teacher that the media say is the norm.