Brexit thread - what happens next

[Freakbro]

Well it was my post you cited. If not that then what are you basing it on?

As I've said, the retractions of how important certain issues were before the vote that now are being dismissed with reasons given by the remain side

Your post was just one reflective example.

And yes, I am treating it as a whole, the same way we can say 'Immigration (freedom of movement) was one of the main reasons people voted to Leave' but that doesn't mean it was the main issue for every Leave voter.

 

[dowie]

As I've said, the retractions of how important certain issues were before the vote that now are being dismissed with reasons given by the remain side

Your post was just one reflective example.

And yes, I am treating it as a whole, the same way we can say 'Immigration (freedom of movement) was one of the main reasons people voted to Leave' but that doesn't mean it was the main issue for every Leave voter.

perhaps you're better off sticking to actual examples rather than vague ones that rely partly on your own memory/bias and partly on grouping all leave supporters together as it doesn't make for a very good argument

 

[Roar87]

No one really thought Turkey would join soon, I remember that thread, it was stated that they could do at some point in the long term (20+ years). My point was that we most likely won't have another referendum in the next 40 years, and if our country had a veto we probably wouldn't use it anyway as our government seems in favour of them joining.

 

[Jono8]

It's ok, we all flip-flop from time to time

 

[HEADRAT]

So if we're not in the Common Market what's the alternative, there are many other countries that aren't part of the Common Market and do trade with the EU, what's the tariff?

 

[wildman]

So if we're not in the Common Market what's the alternative, there are many other countries that aren't part of the Common Market and do trade with the EU, what's the tariff?

Tariff depends on the class of goods e.g

Chinese steel has a 16% Tariff

Tariffs on japanese car parts are around 3 - 5 %

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-japan-eu-tariffs-idUKBRE99H0TZ20131018

 

[HEADRAT]

Well as we export much less to the EU than they import to us then can't we just pay the tariff and then raise the tariff on their goods they import, surely we'll be quids in (then we don't have to worry about all this "free movement of people" tosh)

 

[wildman]

Well as we export much less to the EU than they import to us then can't we just pay the tariff and then raise the tariff on their goods they import, surely we'll be quids in (then we don't have to worry about all this "free movement of people" tosh)

ok

 

[Amp34]

so you're admittedly arguing a point regarding something that isn't likely to happen anytime soon... and also would need to be a scenario where only the UK would be worried about the negative effects of to the point we're we're the single nation to veto it

as for no deal on immigration it is one of the main issues campaigned on ergo will be a major issue for the negotiating team, rather unrealistic to ignore it. Maybe we'll end up in some sort of hybrid EEA- deal

Switzerland has had a binding referendum forcing the government to try and reduce free movement. The issue is the EU aren't even willing to discuss the matter, let alone negotiate this issue. They aren't budging on the single market=free movement issue.

You argued earlier that Switzerland was similar to the UK, yet it's not getting anywhere on this issue.

Hey, we may be lucky, but at the moment all the cards are pointing to no dice.

 

[Zethor]

Well as we export much less to the EU than they import to us then can't we just pay the tariff and then raise the tariff on their goods they import, surely we'll be quids in (then we don't have to worry about all this "free movement of people" tosh)

If we are not in the single market we lose most corporate HQs.

 

[Avenged7Fold]

EU based companies can include the tariff in their price of the products to keep margins the same and pass on the cost to the consumers, it is not like we have many alternative places to purchase stuff from for cheaper. The EU on the other hand is made up of a number of countries and has a number of trade deals to sort out alternative places to purchase from.

Our exports to the EU vs imports is definately not something that can be used as leverage to strong arm.

 

[Amp34]

No one really thought Turkey would join soon, I remember that thread, it was stated that they could do at some point in the long term (20+ years). My point was that we most likely won't have another referendum in the next 40 years, and if our country had a veto we probably wouldn't use it anyway as our government seems in favour of them joining.

Rot. Many people were arguing the point that there was a British team working on EU membership in the Turkish consulate. That there was going to be a flurry of announcements after the referendum on turkey, that the visa free travel was going to cause an influx of millions and was just the start.

Some were arguing 20+ years (mostly people voting remain pointing out it was way in the future), a large proportion were arguing that it was going to happen in the next few years and we needed to get out sharpish because of it.

 

[Avenged7Fold]

Just need to look in the old referendum threads to see all that crap

 

[V F]

Anyone watch the kaiser report on brexit. Regardless of the first minute or so them claiming the hedge funds manipulating the market and making billions and the eventual ever widening gap between the rich and poor.

Quite interesting views

I haven't watched the Keiser Report in a long time due to the fact Max is getting louder and louder.

Anon mouse, 1 day ago
Max, you are turning into try hard Alex Jones. :/

 

[dowie]

Rot. Many people were arguing the point that there was a British team working on EU membership in the Turkish consulate. That there was going to be a flurry of announcements after the referendum on turkey, that the visa free travel was going to cause an influx of millions and was just the start.

Some were arguing 20+ years (mostly people voting remain pointing out it was way in the future), a large proportion were arguing that it was going to happen in the next few years and we needed to get out sharpish because of it.

Are they also arguing for some sort of hybrid EEA type deal?

Many people were arguing for all sorts of things - point still remains that trying to generalise everyone in say the 'leave' camp based on stuff claimed by some others in the leave camp is rather flawed

 

[Bonjour]

EU member states are now going to be able to vote on CETA (the Canada-EU trade deal). It's thought this may be at least partly due to discontent fanned by Brexit.

 

[Mulder]

I think the rest of Europe will end up being closer and stronger when they see what the alternative is with their own eyes. I don't think the Euro is going anywhere.

Many commentators, including the ex Govenor of the Bank of England, think the Euro will only end badly and ultimately collapse. I've mentioned it in previous threads, but it's got fundamental structural issues that have never been addressed, only kicked down the road at each sign of trouble. Credit Suisse put a research note out earlier in the year saying the Eurozone could start to unravel if another recession hits the EU.

People don't want to accept it, but it's more likely than most people think.

 

[grudas]

Well as we export much less to the EU than they import to us then can't we just pay the tariff and then raise the tariff on their goods they import, surely we'll be quids in (then we don't have to worry about all this "free movement of people" tosh)

you do realise that everything imported will go up in price?

and you do understand that people like you and me will the be the ones paying for it?

brilliant logic.

take one step forwards and two back.

 

[HEADRAT]

I wasn't stating the logic and yes I know things will go up (falling £ won't help much in that regard). I just wondered why we couldn't simply pay the tariffs if that's what it takes.

Personally we might be worse off but as an exporter/country we might actually come out ahead.

 

[LOAM]

Have we reached £$ parity yet?