Brexit thread - what happens next

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Switzerland is the 6th largest financial centre in the world, source. The EU's highest entrant is 14th. Yes passporting is important (and of course we could still get passporting rights depending on the negotiations) but it really hasn't hurt Switzerland that much.

UBS and Credit Suisse base their international institutional and corporate sales teams (within capital markets) in London, as they're unable to execute such transactions in Switzerland. London dominates most areas of capital markets as a result, however should we leave the EU and not have access to passporting, then these areas of capital markets would up and leave - as well as associated practices, such as market making and structuring. This would be devastating news for the City.

Switzerland has huge asset management and private banking capabilities, but very little in the way of investment banking.
 
Apart from comparing pure growth stats, one also needs to adjust for the current losses and possible recession (that were highly unlikely to have happened were we to stay). Your predicted Brexit growth is so good, that it outpaces UK-in-EU growth despite these losses. Is UK to hit China-like growth rates of 6-7% once we stabilise? Are there any developed countries that grow that quickly?

You need to go back and read my post again because that is the exact opposite of what I said.
 
Biblical proportions....dramatic much :D

London is the world's number one financial centre for a number of reasons; language, timezone, quality of workforce, employment laws, globally leading legal system etc. To think a crash of "biblical proportions" will occur just because we lose EU passporting rights is just way over the top.

And the fact we can now form closer ties with/an association with the 4th and 6th largest global financial centres should mean in time we prosper outside of the EU, rather than decline from being inside it.

Here is PriceWaterCooper's evaluation
"A Brexit study by PwC, an accounting firm, for TheCityUK concludes that gross value-added in financial services would fall by 5.7-9.5% by 2020 and employment by 70,000-100,000. The sector would grow more slowly and some firms would relocate to other EU financial hubs. The main cause would be the loss of “passporting rights”. These allow any British-based bank or investment firm to trade across Europe: without them, firms would have to set up separately capitalised subsidiaries inside the EU. A study by Frontier Economics for London First, another lobby group, also finds that total British trade would fall by £67 billion-92 billion a year."

http://www.economist.com/news/brita...would-be-one-biggest-losers-brexit-city-blues

BTW, -10% would drop London from no1 spot to somewhere around Switzerland, I can see why they are all in favour :)
 
Lol, and your posts have no substance, just a lot of getting personal.

Big business loves regulations, it helps them maintain their market shares and makes it harder for new entrants into the market.

How are your clients by the way? Particularly the Asians ones. You seem to be working for the only big bank not affected by Brexit.
 
Looks like DELL are hiking the price of everything by 10%, blaming Brexit.

Funny that they didn't do this in 2009 when it was 1.35, and did they lower prices when it was 1.5? Nope.

Scummy.

You haven't thought this through.

The rate in 2009 was arrived at gradually (from about 2 to about 1.35 over the course of six months) so prices moved slowly and weren't remarkable.

This recent drop, though not as steep, happened more suddenly. That's what a "shock" is.

Edit: saying that there were some steep slides around that time. 21 Oct 2008, 10 Nov 2008, 19 Jan 2009... Maybe it wasn't as obvious in prices because they just kept going up and up. :p
 
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As a consumer I'm quite fond of regulations, particularly the ones that you know, stop companies selling things that are likely to make me dead.

Those would be covered by our own British Standard etc. regulations. The point isn't to be free of regulation completely. It is to only apply certain regulation where it is necessary. When regulation gets out of hand it leads to the issues we saw with diesels. The rest of the world was right and already knew diesel was bad. Anyway health and safety is one of many regulations. I doubt we will see any change on the H&S side as we are quite rightly strict on this.
 
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YThe rate in 2009 was arrived at gradually (from about 2 to about 1.35 over the course of six months) so prices moved slowly and weren't remarkable.

If you look at inflation figures you can see a big spike that occurred around that time. Much of this spike was related to falls in the pound.

Companies rarely mention price increases because it's not a great business plan but prices do change all the time in response to shifts in the £s value. I suspect they are mentioning it now because they want the government to act to ensure single market access.
 
Damaging maybe but for how long? You cannot categorically say that leaving isn't the best option for the country as you simply do not know. Everything from both sides is purely based on hypotheticals of what might happen in the future. Thus you do not actually know if there will have been things that could be considered as consequences if we stayed in.

I do not class myself as ignorant however I'm not an economic expert either. I simply do not like what I believe the EU is trying to form into. I am one that sees the EU as failing thus it seemed better to me to abandon the sinking ship now before further integration took place.

There has to be a vote purely because you do not know how many MP's have vested interests etc to stay in the EU. There'll still be some form of corruption and back handers in the politics system and basically everyone is selfish these days so due to that if kept 'sweat' that'd be a vote for in regardless of whether things really aren't so rosy in the EU.

I do not know but I hope my decision to leave for the long term benefits is the right decision. I am however not naïve enough to categorically state that it is the right decision like so many remain voters seem to spout off that being in is the only and right decision. That seems like a very narrow minded view to me.

You are right, in the "long term", no one can say for definite whether leaving or not would be for the best in the long term. However, in the short term, it seemed that the vast majority experts in fields related to the bureaucracy and operation of the EU - political, law, social, economic - were of the general consensus that leaving the EU would be a bad idea, and by short term, they were talking in terms of multiple years at the very least, and this is a prediction which is so far starting to ring true.

So given that both arguments could only hypothesise about what would happen long term, but that it was quite clear that leaving would be a universally bad idea for the short term...why would you vote to leave? Why not vote to remain, where you still have no idea if things will be worse/better off long term, but you at least ensure a measure of stability and security to be maintained in the "short" term?

This is something I can't quite get my head around. I hope you're right, I really do, that that we end up better off in the long term. But given that we don't know how long that will be, and that it is not certain that we will be better off, it seems an incredibly foolish gamble to make on an irreversible decision.

The thing is, the Leave campaign can't really be proved wrong. If things start to improve in 20 years time, they will say "See, leaving was a good idea!!" even though it would probably be impossible to prove, that far down the line, if any improvements were as a direct result of leaving the EU, and also impossible to say whether we might have been in an even better position by remaining anyway.
 
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