Brexit thread - what happens next

Burnsy2023 · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:31

jimjamuk said:
Both sides I seemed to believe were spouting rubbish at every opportunity. The referendum should have had a extra choices

Leave EU completely
Partially Leave EU
Status Quo
Join Euro and go all in

Things just aren't black and white for most people

The problem with that is defining what all those options actually mean.

What does partially leave the EU mean? EEA? EFTA? Some other trade agreement? These have substantial differences and practicalities.

What does status quo mean? I think it's true that neither the UK nor the EU are going to stand still, both will change. How? Nobody quite knows because the decisions haven't been made.

Moses said:
That is debatable. It's arguable either way. I'd imagine we won't ever find out because the PM won't push the button without choosing to ask Parliament, given if they did we'd have a legal challenge which could risk the scope of their prerogative powers.

Indeed, like I mentioned, it would be daft for anyone, let alone TM being just put in post as PM, to go for this without parliamentary support.

LOAM · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:34

Moses said:
That is debatable. It's arguable either way. I'd imagine we won't ever find out because the PM won't push the button without choosing to ask Parliament, given if they did we'd have a legal challenge which could risk the scope of their prerogative powers.

Maybe I was unclear. When I say "for us that means parliament" I mean that our democracy is a parliamentary democracy. The house has the final say not the government. This is constitutionally fact, its not debatable at all in any sense. Yes a government with a majority can rule the house but its an act of parliament that is the end result. Even our constitution is made up of multiple act of parliament.

deuse · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:35

Burnsy2023 said:
I'm reading a lot more constitutional law and politics blogs as well as some of the parliamentary committee meetings etc.

I'm making the mistake of listening to experts...

Who are these so called experts?
Project fear never worked with these so called EXPERTS and nether will Project Drama queen.

Burnsy2023 · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:36

deuse said:
Who are these so called experts?
Project fear never worked with these so called EXPERTS and nether will Project Drama queen.

Really? I'm trying to have an adult discussion here. If you don't have the maturity to sit at the big kids table, why are you still posting?

I get that you have a difference in opinion, fine, we don't have to agree, but show a bit of maturity.

Stretch · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:36

Burnsy2023 said:
The problem with that is defining what all those options actually mean.

What does partially leave the EU mean? EEA? EFTA? Some other trade agreement? These have substantial differences and practicalities.

Some would argue that we are already partially in the EU, hence why there is little scope for a better deal than we have now.

I see several months of hair splitting negotiations ahead of us, just ot get the same or worse deal than we have at the moment. Unless were prepared to completely turn our back on the EU, and go it alone... which we're clearly not.

deuse said:
Who are these so called experts?
Project fear never worked with these so called EXPERTS and nether will Project Drama queen.

No form of rational debate will work with the people who voted leave. This thread just confirms this. We will have to wait for real events to show the correct way forward.

jimjamuk · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:37

Burnsy2023 said:
The problem with that is defining what all those options actually mean.

What does partially leave the EU mean? EEA? EFTA? Some other trade agreement? These have substantial differences and practicalities.

What does status quo mean? I think it's true that neither the UK nor the EU are going to stand still, both will change. How? Nobody quite knows because the decisions haven't been made.

The point would be if the referendum came back with a partial then you could draw up options for EEA / EFTA / something else. The "experts" could then have made the "best " choice out of those and it would have met the referendum criteria. People have already moaned that the public doesn't understand this stuff and this would have given them options and not just a straight in or out which the ones left have to try and do. A half way house which might be the best option isn't going to sit well with both sides I expect

inogen · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:38

jimjamuk said:
Both sides I seemed to believe were spouting rubbish at every opportunity. The referendum should have had a extra choices

Leave EU completely
Partially Leave EU
Status Quo
Join Euro and go all in

Things just aren't black and white for most people

The only reason we had the referendum in the first place was because Cameron saw it as a way of achieving a parliamentary majority whilst garnering support from Tory Eurosceptics. It was a party political squabble which has been blown out of all proportion and hijacked by a populist protest vote. It's a farce.

Cern · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:38

Burnsy2023 said:
I'll find some sources when I'm home, but my reading of constitutional and other legal blogs is that this is not possible in reality. You would need to create new statutory agencies to cope with the missing regulatory oversight and then legislate to give them powers to do their job. And that's just to start with.

This isn't a simple find and replace on UK law.

Thanks, would be interesting to read.

Well if this isn't a viable option in reality, then I think this is a situation that the word "omnishambles" was coined for.

As usual with messy divorces the only winners are the lawyers.

Mr Badger · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:39

deuse said:
All the people I know that voted leave are already gearing up for it and most have companies.

Gearing up for it how? Stockpiling pornography and tins of corned beef?

Freakbro · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:39

deuse said:
Who are these so called experts?
Project fear never worked with these so called EXPERTS and nether will Project Drama queen.

lol, pathetic and childish response, to be expected though I suppose

Burnsy2023 · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:39

LOAM said:
Maybe I was unclear. When I say "for us that means parliament" I mean that our democracy is a parliamentary democracy. The house has the final say not the government. This is constitutionally fact, its not debatable at all in any sense. Yes a government with a majority can rule the house but its an act of parliament that is the end result.

It's not quite that simple either. There needs to be a balance of power between the executive and the legislature. They both have distinct roles and need to complement each other. Acts of Parliament can always be rejected by HM on advice of the Privvy council.

deuse · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:41

Burnsy2023 said:
Really? I'm trying to have an adult discussion here. If you don't have the maturity to sit at the big kids table, why are you still posting?

I get that you have a difference in opinion, fine, we don't have to agree, but show a bit of maturity.

You can't even name the so called experts you got your advice from...but you are quick to say what they post on blogs!!!!!!

And typical stay person goes to shouting names. Like that's going to hurt me DQ.

jimjamuk · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:43

inogen said:
The only reason we had the referendum in the first place was because Cameron saw it as a way of achieving a parliamentary majority whilst garnering support from Tory Eurosceptics. It was a party political squabble which has been blown out of all proportion and hijacked by a populist protest vote. It's a farce.

I agree on why we had this in the first place but the question being asked wasn't finalised until well after the election. If they hadn't been so blinkered that it would be a straight win then they could have done something like this to gauge who in or out the people wanted to be

Roar87 · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:43

I watched that Parliamentary Committee meeting too that Burnsy has been quoting for the past few pages (it was actually dead interesting), there is clearly a vast amount of work to do and it's nothing like anything we've ever done before. Ultimately though that's what the government has been tasked to do by a clear majority of the people, so they'll have to find a way to get on and do it and I'm sure they will.

FortuitousFluke · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:44

deuse said:
Who are these so called experts?
Project fear never worked with these so called EXPERTS and nether will Project Drama queen.

"What do you make of all these experts coming out in favour of remain?"

"I find what they're saying very scary, so I've chosen to ignore them."

1 month later

"The vote appears to have had a detrimental impact on markets, exchange rates, and job prospects, as predicted by the experts"

*Buries head in sand*

LOAM · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:45

Burnsy2023 said:
It's not quite that simple either. There needs to be a balance of power between the executive and the legislature. They both have distinct roles and need to complement each other. Acts of Parliament can always be rejected by HM on advice of the Privvy council.

Indeed but beyond simplistic there be dragons. I'm not arguing that the PM will or wont trigger without Parliament more that unless it can be seen that the government can use the royal prerogative, it need to pass through the house.

Hagar · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:46

Burnsy2023 said:
The problem with that is defining what all those options actually mean.

What does partially leave the EU mean? EEA? EFTA? Some other trade agreement? These have substantial differences and practicalities.

What does status quo mean? I think it's true that neither the UK nor the EU are going to stand still, both will change. How? Nobody quite knows because the decisions haven't been made.

I do not believe that we should start a negotiating position with a preconceived idea based on another countries experience.

We are neither Norway, Canada or Switzerland. the start position is what we can offer the EU and what they can offer us based on mutual beneficial rules and agreements.

This may result in similarities with existing agreements but it would be most suited to our economy. No one can predict now what the situation in 12/24 months will be so it is pointless trying to fix a negotiating case at this time.

Broadly any negotiating team must be provided a free rein to discuss anything and everything with reporting lines back to the Government and Parliament established prior to agreements being finalised by parliamentary vote.

deuse · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:47

So May will be the PM on Thursday. Lets hope she sticks to her word.

Cern · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:49

Roar87 said:
I watched that Parliamentary Committee meeting too that Burnsy has been quoting for the past few pages (it was actually dead interesting), there is clearly a vast amount of work to do and it's nothing like anything we've ever done before. Ultimately though that's what the government has been tasked to do by a clear majority of the people, so they'll have to find a way to get on and do it and I'm sure they will.

Where's the money going to come from to pay for all the legal costs and extra civil sevants needed to to handle this vast task?

I guess most of that £350m we were going to spend on the NHS :rolleyes:

will now get spent on lawyers instead.

inogen · 11 Jul 2016 at 14:50

Roar87 said:
I watched that Parliamentary Committee meeting too that Burnsy has been quoting for the past few pages (it was actually dead interesting), there is clearly a vast amount of work to do and it's nothing like anything we've ever done before. Ultimately though that's what the government has been tasked to do by a clear majority of the people, so they'll have to find a way to get on and do it and I'm sure they will.

If they do, it won't happen anywhere as quickly as many people would seem to want and expect.

And remember, although it was a majority vote, it was slim and only 37% of those eligible. This could, as Burnsy suggests, pan out that this doesn't get through a parliamentary vote. Things will look a lot different after the next election if a50 hasn't been invoked.