Brexit thread - what happens next

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I still think nothing will happen. Government will spend millions of pounds and years of negotiatinos and at the end they'll decide it's not worth it. In the mean time economy will suffer, we all be worse off and all because of few idiots in UKIP scared Cameron to calling this referendum.
 
bayo000 said:
I still think nothing will happen. Government will spend millions of pounds and years of negotiatinos and at the end they'll decide it's not worth it. In the mean time economy will suffer, we all be worse off and all because of few idiots in UKIP scared Cameron to calling this referendum.
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But David Davis says we will be out the door before you can say 'bargain'.
 
Cern said:
Well you could argue that you shouldn't hold referendums on "far reaching and huge issues" period. Many countries don't and won't because they recognise it is dangerous to make huge constitutional changes based on a snapshot of public opinion which can be influenced by all manner of extraneous and temporary factors. And those that do usually require a 2/3 majority.

Of course it's too late now, our government was too detached from the reality of most peoples lives, too smug and complacent to contemplate losing the vote and didn't expect the anti-establishment backlash they got.

The sad part is that whilst the anti-establishment backlash was a healthy thing, the EU was scapegoated for a lot of ills which were not it's fault.

Leaving the EU will not fix the problems of inequality, neglect and deep disenfranchisement which permeate vast swathes of Britain. It might even make it worse when the honeymoon period wears off and the reality bites that Brexit comes at a high economic price and does not solve any of the day-to-day problems that people are really disillusioned about.
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Exactly this^
 
With the EU trying to centralise as much as possible, if we're being honest would we want to properly be part of the EU in the future anyway? Maybe it would work for some years to come, but the EU has changed so much since we joined, and continues to do so.

I don't think the EU is a force of evil or anything, clearly not the case, but they are a big lumbering beast containing so many disparate nations, all with different cultures, identities, priorities.

It's not an easy thing to control, and the EU is having to try to have one set of rules that encompasses every Nation within it's borders.

I reckon we'll wind up on a Norway style deal, we will lose clout in some respects, in many not much will change given the strings attached to this.
 
HungryHippos said:
I reckon we'll wind up on a Norway style deal, we will lose clout in some respects, in many not much will change given the strings attached to this.
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Ask the Norwegians how much clout they've got cos I think you'll find we'll lose clout in all respects. :p
 
Darujhistan said:
Polls on CH 5 showing that hardly anyone on either side has changed their mind. So much for the 'buyers remorse' angle peddled by remainers.
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It's way way too early for any of that. The Pound and markets have taken a hit of course, but none of the real reality of any of this has bitten yet. We're still in the EU for the time being, we don't yet know what deals we will or won't get, many investors and businesses are waiting to see how it all pans out. So there's an element of trying to carry on as normal at present, even if many are unsure what that means anymore.

Let's see how people feel further down the line when the sweeping changes actually happen and Brexit really starts to have an effect (for good or for bad).

If Brexit is a long journey ahead and the referendum was opening the front door, then we're barely down the garden path at the moment (albeit an eventful trip down down garden path).
 
HungryHippos said:
I don't think the EU is a force of evil or anything, clearly not the case, but they are a big lumbering beast containing so many disparate nations, all with different cultures, identities, priorities.
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So like any other far-reaching international undertaking like ever? You've captured everyone there, from WTO through to NATO.:o Anyway, I posted a two-chapter report regarding Norway's relationship with the EU several pages back in reply to delta0, you may want to check it out. It's shorter than our own competencies report of 2014.
 
Cern said:
If Brexit is a long journey ahead and the referendum was opening the front door, then we're barely down the garden path at the moment (albeit an eventful trip down down garden path).
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Nah the referendum was unlocking the door, article 50 is starting down the garden path. ;)
 
VoG said:
Ask the Norwegians how much clout they've got cos I think you'll find we'll lose clout in all respects. :p
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OK we lose all clout, but do we truly have much anyway?

Norway deal may not be perfect, but it would open other doors, we would be able to get our own trade deals on top of the free trade with the EU.

I just don't see us being a good fit being properly in the EU in the future, it's wanting to go in directions we would not want to go imo.

datalol-jack said:
So like any other far-reaching international undertaking like ever? You've captured everyone there, from WTO through to NATO.:o Anyway, I posted a two-chapter report regarding Norway's relationship with the EU several pages back in reply to delta0, you may want to check it out. It's shorter than our own competencies report of 2014.
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I may check it out, but NATO and WTO aren't really the same thing as the EU, the EU is a much more all-encompassing movement compared to them.

On the other hand would it really be the most terrible thing in the world if we weren't in the EU or the EFTA or anything at all? We have a lot going for us as a country, if we can maintain access to the really important things like financial service passporting, then we may not in fact really need tariff free trade with the EU. We can import things from elsewhere with our own free trade agreements if needed.
 
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HungryHippos said:
On the other hand would it really be the most terrible thing in the world if we weren't in the EU or the EFTA or anything at all? We have a lot going for us as a country, if we can maintain access to the really important things like financial service passporting, then we may not in fact really need tariff free trade with the EU. We can import things from elsewhere with our own free trade agreements if needed.
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Short answer: yes. Treasury select committee goes into up to four excruciating hours as to why that is. It's your friend.

The worst projections you saw during the referendum were based around the WTO model, high migration (if that disappears we take another knock) and reasonable trade.
 
Its a simple point that trade is more important with the world at large rather then favouring just the EU.
EU isnt high growth, large sections of the world are growing exponentially now and will continue to grow massively and in ways they really do require UK expertise and quality assurance etc
Capturing those markets and trading compartitive advantage is vital, any path which allows us to do that best is the one to take. I dont think any studies or hypotheticals are required to justify that. If people think EU is how we get to be part of world growth then fair enough

I defer to the Scottish on these things, just not the current leader. Its all been asked and answered before theory and practise afaik
http://www.adamsmith.org/the-wealth-of-nations/

circa 1790 said:
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