Brexit thread - what happens next

[Jokester]

May gave a cracking first prime minister's question time in the Commons just now, she has left the pundits reeling with her humorously aggressive tone and confidence, one even questioned whether someone had slipped something in her tea She gives me confidence that she will either get on with Merkel this afternoon or at least not be intimidated if things turn sour. Well done Theresa! Brexit is looking in strong hands.

Aye, just seen her on the news as well, looked and sounded good.

 

[Cooper]

Aye, just seen her on the news as well, looked and sounded good.

Too early to tell of course but I suspect she's not going to become a figure of hate for so many like the last female PM either.

..Of course she won't have to face the same problem of de-industrialisation wrecking whole communities like Thatcher did.

 

[gettothechopper]

She was pretty on it I thought - savaged poor old corbs though

would like to hear some substantial answers for a lot of these questions now though

 

[Freakbro]

The tens of thousands commitment was a joke to begin with, a Cameronist big lie that he had not intention of delivering on - it wasn't even in his gift to make that promise in the first place since the bulk of our immigration policy is set in Brussels. That commitment is tainted now and it's right that the new government should scrap it and come up with something else.

Looks like you better U-turn and backtrack on your eternal spin....because in PMQs May just pledged to keep to the immigration commitment of 'tens of thousands'...

So is it still a joke and a lie?

And I look forward to us voting the Tories out in 2020 when they fail to keep to this pledge

 

[the_r_sole]

I have no personal vendetta against individual people who have immigrated to the UK, but I worry how we have an ever increasing population, with successive governments since ~1992 that have been doing far too little to sort out house renting and house buying prices for those on lower than UK average household incomes.

The overall UK population has grown by ~10 million since 1992, but where have been the extra houses to cope with this increase, which allow low income individuals/families to have a decent standard of living without serious debt?

In my opinion, you don't let the population increase via net positive migration, if you cannot house your native population properly and leave them with a decent amount of disposable income after having a roof over their heads, paying utility services and filling their belly.

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

According to the above, we have the 9th biggest net immigration total and we are nothing like the 9th biggest country in the world by area. Very scary reading regarding where the UK is heading in my opinion, if nothing is changed.

I realise that immigration is not the whole rent/buying problem, but it is part of it.

Addressing the housing crisis is not something any politician will ever do in this country - our whole economy is based on inflated house/land values, if they allow enough development to happen all their chums sitting on massive land banks will not be happy.
Even your average OCUK tory will be unhappy seeing their buy to let portfolios reduce in yield

It's absolutely nothing to do with immigration levels.

 

[nine_tails]

No doubt all here taking the jobs of honest working class folk, suppressing the wages of the disenfranchised forgotten majority.

Or maybe these are the kind of persons we'll throw open the door to under our new "points based immigration system", whilst shutting Eastern Europeans out, leaving Frank and Dave a free run at ripping people off by running substandard building firms.

Is this a sarcastic post? As an Immigrant , who is here , working; I'd like for you to elaborate if it is not. Are you saying all immigrants are dishonest in some way? The opportunity presented to me , was already present before i got here open to all "honest working class folks" to take advantage of as well.

 

[Mulder]

Four very interesting maps of immigration patterns in Europe. Very interesting that India is still the UK's biggest source of immigrants.

Really interesting, thanks for posting.

 

[Sankari]

Very interesting that India is still the UK's biggest source of immigrants.

Don't worry, leaving the EU will stop the Indian horde!

Er... oh. Oh wait...

 

[Stretch]

Is this a sarcastic post? As an Immigrant , who is here , working; I'd like for you to elaborate if it is not. Are you saying all immigrants are dishonest in some way?

Quite the opposite

It was being slightly sarcastic. I'm suggesting that some people voted leave because they want to rid the country of migrants in the hope that they can offer the same service (such as construction) at an inferior quality or a higher price. The so called wage suppression argument.

I don't think I've ever heard anyone moan about Indian immigrants in the same way, despite them forming the largest group of immigrants in the UK. They mostly work in white collar job such as doctors and IT.

There is/was the suggestion during the referendum campaign that the disenfranchise working classes bore the brunt of immigration, but this evidently isn't true. I've never heard a British doctor moan about India doctors coming hear and suppressing their wages.

 

[Stretch]

So the PM says we need to reduce immigration to sustainable levels of 10s of thousands.

Anyone slightly puzzled why immigration from non EU states is running about 200k a year, under a system where we have full control. Also many in the leave camp were suggesting throughout the referendum campaign that the current system "unfairly discriminates" again non EU immigrants, and that many who deserve to get in are currently turned away.

 

[joeyjojo]

So the PM says we need to reduce immigration to sustainable levels of 10s of thousands.

Anyone slightly puzzled why immigration from non EU states is running about 200k a year, under a system where we have full control. Also many in the leave camp were suggesting throughout the referendum campaign that the current system "unfairly discriminates" again non EU immigrants, and that many who deserve to get in are currently turned away.

It's something to do with the EU migrants all being brickies and shelf stackers vs. non-EU migrants all being doctors and lawyers.

 

[Bazzards]

Surely immigration should be based on the needs of the country. Do we need polish brickies and shelf stackers? Do we not have enough of those?

 

[datalol-jack]

So the PM says we need to reduce immigration to sustainable levels of 10s of thousands.

Anyone slightly puzzled why immigration from non EU states is running about 200k a year, under a system where we have full control. Also many in the leave camp were suggesting throughout the referendum campaign that the current system "unfairly discriminates" again non EU immigrants, and that many who deserve to get in are currently turned away.

Because under pressure from businesses, universities and the NHS and other public bodies with labour shortages May, Hunt et al were pressed into more U-turns than you can shake a stick at (three bigguns from memory). Still, one must also point out that points systems are designed to categorise labour coming in, amplifying national needs and requirements -- not to stop people from coming or to set arbitrary caps. Conspiracy? Go to the World Bank's migration stats page and pull up net figures for every major developed economy in the ball-park of the UK, particularly those with points systems; ditto for per capita figures. 10s of thousands? You're killing me, bros!

 

[Stretch]

Surely immigration should be based on the needs of the country. Do we need polish brickies and shelf stackers? Do we not have enough of those?

Define enough?

All industries/companies will say they have "shortages" if it means they can recruit more easily.

Speak to anyone in the constriction sector, they will tell you their company depends on a migrant work force. The same for shelf-stackers, factory workers etc.

I would say it worse in these sectors. No one born in the UK dreams of being a shelf stacker.

From personal experience, it's very hard to find a quality builder/gardener in my area, and there are already lots or Eastern Europeans in the trade.

 

[nine_tails]

Quite the opposite

It was being slightly sarcastic. I'm suggesting that some people voted leave because they want to rid the country of migrants in the hope that they can offer the same service (such as construction) at an inferior quality or a higher price. The so called wage suppression argument.

I don't think I've ever heard anyone moan about Indian immigrants in the same way, despite them forming the largest group of immigrants in the UK. They mostly work in white collar job such as doctors and IT.

There is/was the suggestion during the referendum campaign that the disenfranchise working classes bore the brunt of immigration, but this evidently isn't true. I've never heard a British doctor moan about India doctors coming hear and suppressing their wages.

Cheers for the post! It's just all this heat is making me a tad bit sensitive

 

[Mr Jack]

Surely immigration should be based on the needs of the country. Do we need polish brickies and shelf stackers? Do we not have enough of those?

It is. EU migrants, overwhelming, come here to work. Because they're getting work with no negative effect on the employment rate of UK-born workers they are clearly coming to fill the employment needs of the country.

Any point-based, or quota-based, system substitutes this with top-down, bureaucratic, centrally managed government control of immigration. We see this in Indian restaurants which are now closing in considerable numbers because the centrally-dictated government system is stopping these businesses from bringing over Indian-trained chefs to work in their kitchens.

 

[Avenged7Fold]

Surely immigration should be based on the needs of the country. Do we need polish brickies and shelf stackers? Do we not have enough of those?

Well according to the housing argument, we need as many brickies as we can get. As for shelf stackers, there is always a need for more shelf stackers. We also need the tax to supplement public services.

 

[joeyjojo]

It is. EU migrants, overwhelming, come here to work. Because they're getting work with no negative effect on the employment rate of UK-born workers they are clearly coming to fill the employment needs of the country.

What I find really weird is that most on the (fiscal) right are happy with some of the big causes of wage stagnation, i.e. a more free labour market and de-unionisation, but then push back against the same free-market principals when it involves foreign workers, in the name of protecting British workers.

Presumably it's because at that point nationalism becomes the dominant force, but it still seems a bit mad to me.

 

[bliss]

A UKIP councillor who said on social media that all Remain voters should be killed has apologised and said his comments were a joke.

Terence Nathan, a councillor in Bromley, south-east London, posted on Facebook it was "time to start killing these people".

He wrote: "There is no need for threats just a bullet".

A spokesperson from UKIP said the councillor was "obviously joking".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-36842940

Keep it classy UKIP.

 

[Greebo]

I don't see what difference that makes since it will happen. Companies aren't going to invest in the UK now unless they see a long term rosie post EU future so if they're predicting continued growth then it's increasingly clear that it was just scaremongering. Not to say the IMF figures will be accurate, one thing the last 10 years has taught me is that in reality, economists can't predict ****.

Other figures out the other day showed the UK building industry was already tanking prior to the vote.

i wouldnt saying "tanking". I work in the construction industry and in the two quarters prior to the referendum, the industry was technically in recession as we had had two consecutive quarters of negative growth but it was only something like 0.25% each quarter. This was on the back of two or three years of massive growth and the industry was almost back to where we were prior to the previous crash and recession.

since brexit, I can only speak for the firm i work for but we are already seeing days when people are having to finish at 3pm due to lack of work and in about 3 weeks time we will have to seriously consider making up to 25% of the workforce redundant or at the very least putting them on 12 weeks layoff.

currently sales are down 25 to 50% and my forecast for the year which originally showed growth of 10% (first five months we actually achieved growth of 13% and employed 16 new employees) has gone firmly out of the window.

My revised forecast is now (pessimistically) showing a 20% decline for the whole year unless something changes quickly which at the moment, I can't see what.