Brexit thread - what happens next

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Greebo said:
I will assume its just the boss spouting rubbish trying to shore up the share price. If he went on air and said they hadnt built a house since Brexit, their share price would be 10% of what it is now.,
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Pretty sure he isn't doing that since he's legally obliged to give accurate forward guidance to shareholders and the market.

Here's a link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36902116

Shares in housebuilder Taylor Wimpey rose 3.7% to 150.20p after it said it had not been affected by last month's Brexit vote.

Pre-tax profits for the first half of the year rose 12% to £267m, and the company said "current trading remains in line with normal seasonal patterns".

"Customer interest continues to be high, with a good level of visitors both to our developments and to our website," said chief executive Pete Redfern.
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bayo000 said:
So during the post recession recovery and on top of that with Torries' austerity measures in place. Either way I don't see how this is relevant to EU as all other EU counties, bar one, managed to do better than UK. Again this is just blaming EU for a failure of UK goverment to invest more money, though one can argue that tackling national debt is a good move.

Well those people that voted Leave because of low wages are in for a shock when they'll be left jobless and prices going up on top of that.
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I'm just challenging the view that being in the EU somehow made the UK the land of milk and honey. For millions of people it didn't. Of course, I'm sure that the unsustainable levels of EU immigration, especially affecting the unskilled and semi-skilled labour markets had nothing to do with the decline of wages in the UK....
 
Greebo said:
I see the 3 billion eu development fund has been suspended. This is money due from the eu as investment into the uk, but the rules are the home country has to match the payment.

Seems the reason it's paused is that they think they will need the money elsewhere.

That's a lot of schemes who had been told they were getting the money who now won't.

Great idea of our government.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...s-treasury-brexit-eu-referendum-a7154526.html

In other news I also see that making the minimum wage regional so poorer areas can pay less is been proposed again. Guess all those poor areas up north who voted out are about to become poorer still. So much for May saying she was going to look after the people who felt left out.
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Just to point out that 3 billion fund is actually only worth 1 billion.


As 66% of all monry given to the uk by the eu comes out of the uk rebate.

So 2 billion of that 3 billion is coming from the uk government.
 
Mulder said:
GDP figures for Q2 are out and better than expected, at 0.6%. This includes the week after the Brexit vote. The rise in GDP growth was down to strong retail figures and manufacturing.
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Doesn't really tell us whether Brexit itself has an impact, but it's good news none-the-less, with the bad Q1 figures and the uncertainty resulting from the referendum I was expecting mildly negative results. While I still think we'll see a retraction in Q3, it does now seem likely that we'll avoid a recession*.


* - defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
 
Cern said:
Leavers and Europsceptics have been moaning about the EEC / EU for 40 years, pretty much ever since Britain joined the EEC in 1973. They even blamed the EEC for the terrible tyranny of the decimal system, even though this was implemented before we joined the EEC.

Battling with the EEC (as it was then) and moaning in the British press about Europe was a constant feature of the Thatcher years, a time when a lot of the crazier Euromyths were born. Thatcher had a lot of trouble with Eurosceptics in her governments throughout the 1980s.

But of course it was John Major's administration which had the worst of it, particularly with the exit from the ERM and the fuss surrounding the Maastricht treaty in 1992. A period rife with Euroscepticism and constant moaning in the press.

And since Maastricht it's only got louder of course.

So none of this is anything new. It's been going on since Day 1, it's been a constant and never-changing stream of negativity about Europe. Some of it justified of course. A lot of it not. Much of it whipped up by the British media who have always had an unfailingly toxic anti-European stance. And all this constantly endorsed by Eurosceptic elements of the political parties, mostly on the right but not exclusively.

It's hardly surprising that this constant barrage of negativity has brought us to where we are with Brexit. Britain has never fully engaged with Europe in the past 40 years, not at any point. Always reluctant, always with opt outs, special vetoes, rebates, special clauses and of course never fully integrated into the Euro or political systems (nor was Europe demanding that the UK should be). All these concessions and yet still the UK moaned and moaned.

The UK never really gave Europe a chance by fully committing to it. The UK might like to think it did, but it didn't. Not even close.
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We never committed to it fully because we instinctively knew it was wrong for our country, just like it been completely wrong for southern Europe.

Tony Benn sussed the European project out for what it is was before we even joined.
 
scorza said:
Pretty sure he isn't doing that since he's legally obliged to give accurate forward guidance to shareholders and the market.

Here's a link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36902116
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Well thats very odd. Summer season is normally the busiest for TW and other house builders. In June they built 85 new houses across N Yorkshire and the Northeast. In July they have built ZERO.

And "customer interest" been high means nothing. Notice he never mentioned whether sales had plummeted to almost nothing. They might be lots of people looking at the new houses but nobody buying.

That seems more than normal seasonal swings to me but what do i know?
 
ron3003 said:
There's no hourly rate for fruit picking/veg cutting pal, it's piecework paid on results. If your good at it you can earn some good money but if you're rubbish then so is the pay. I knew loads of Brits who did it before the Eastern European criminals began flouting the rules as unlicensed gangmasters & it became a closed shop.
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This country has relied on foreign labour coming over during harvest time for at least 50 years. As I mentioned once before our local strawberry farmer turned to kids on school holidays because he could not get adults to do the work. It is also not unusual, apparently in China they have even started a TV soap to promote agricultural working as even there Chinese do not want to work the land.
 
do_ron_ron said:
This country has relied on foreign labour coming over during harvest time for at least 50 years. As I mentioned once before our local strawberry farmer turned to kids on school holidays because he could not get adults to do the work. It is also not unusual, apparently in China they have even started a TV soap to promote agricultural working as even there Chinese do not want to work the land.
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Probably not, I am 63, and do not remember too much foreign labour at harvest time when I was a kid. Certainly it was a family affair, whole villages turned out and school age children did work 'picking spuds' and all sorts of produce particularly in the countryside. It was good for the pocket money.

Probably with legislation on school attendance, minimum wage, working time directives, and age related operation of machinery etc. this would be (quite rightly in some respects) due for change.
 
scorza said:
I'm just challenging the view that being in the EU somehow made the UK the land of milk and honey. For millions of people it didn't. Of course, I'm sure that the unsustainable levels of EU immigration, especially affecting the unskilled and semi-skilled labour markets had nothing to do with the decline of wages in the UK....
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Since other EU countries managed to grow their wages I'd argue it didn't or at very least EU isn't the sole reason for it as you like to blindly portrait.
 
bayo000 said:
Since other EU countries managed to grow their wages I'd argue it didn't or at very least EU isn't the sole reason for it as you like to blindly portrait.
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Collapse%20in%20UK%20real%20wages_zpsfeehw5al.jpg
 
do_ron_ron said:
This country has relied on foreign labour coming over during harvest time for at least 50 years. As I mentioned once before our local strawberry farmer turned to kids on school holidays because he could not get adults to do the work. It is also not unusual, apparently in China they have even started a TV soap to promote agricultural working as even there Chinese do not want to work the land.
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Using kids was very common in the past. I remember my dad saying that all the kids would line up at schools etc during the harvest holidays, and farmers would drive by and pick them up and pay them for their harvest.
 
Greebo said:
Well thats very odd. Summer season is normally the busiest for TW and other house builders. In June they built 85 new houses across N Yorkshire and the Northeast. In July they have built ZERO.

And "customer interest" been high means nothing. Notice he never mentioned whether sales had plummeted to almost nothing. They might be lots of people looking at the new houses but nobody buying.

That seems more than normal seasonal swings to me but what do i know?
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Agree it is strange. What do you mean by "built" though? Starting development of a plot? Completing development of a plot? Actual completion of a sale?

Agree that customer interest means very little - it's still better than him saying that customer interest has fallen though. I'd expect that TW have week-on-week sales figures available to their management, so if sales had fallen sharply over the last few weeks he would have said that.
 
a1ex2001 said:
Yet if you look at economic growth, executive pay and a myriad of other fat cat perks the graph will be reversed this is just more evidence of the rich getting richer at the expense of the poor and immigration being a convenient scape goat!
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Except that's what happens when you increase the supply of labour - the cost of labour goes down meaning lower pay and conditions for workers, more profits for businesses, and people whose income is determined by profits (business owners, executives) get more money. Entirely predictable through the laws of supply and demand.

Poland's labour force is shrinking, as Poles emigrate to other EU countries to work. Their economy's real wages have grown by 23% in the same period. I'm not saying it's all down to immigration/emigration, but it's clearly a factor.
 
Cern said:
Leavers and Europsceptics have been moaning about the EEC / EU for 40 years, pretty much ever since Britain joined the EEC in 1973. They even blamed the EEC for the terrible tyranny of the decimal system, even though this was implemented before we joined the EEC.

Battling with the EEC (as it was then) and moaning in the British press about Europe was a constant feature of the Thatcher years, a time when a lot of the crazier Euromyths were born. Thatcher had a lot of trouble with Eurosceptics in her governments throughout the 1980s.

But of course it was John Major's administration which had the worst of it, particularly with the exit from the ERM and the fuss surrounding the Maastricht treaty in 1992. A period rife with Euroscepticism and constant moaning in the press.

And since Maastricht it's only got louder of course.

So none of this is anything new. It's been going on since Day 1, it's been a constant and never-changing stream of negativity about Europe. Some of it justified of course. A lot of it not. Much of it whipped up by the British media who have always had an unfailingly toxic anti-European stance. And all this constantly endorsed by Eurosceptic elements of the political parties, mostly on the right but not exclusively.

It's hardly surprising that this constant barrage of negativity has brought us to where we are with Brexit. Britain has never fully engaged with Europe in the past 40 years, not at any point. Always reluctant, always with opt outs, special vetoes, rebates, special clauses and of course never fully integrated into the Euro or political systems (nor was Europe demanding that the UK should be). All these concessions and yet still the UK moaned and moaned.

The UK never really gave Europe a chance by fully committing to it. The UK might like to think it did, but it didn't. Not even close.
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The UK had the rebate because a fundamental of the EU was the CAP, a mechanism designed prior to UK accession in the interests of economies structurally different to the UK, like France, and was funsamentally distorting. As the proportion of EU budget spent on the CSP reduced, so did the rebate.

That, however, perfectly illustrates the problems with the whole EU project. The two coee problems are aggressive expansionism, and trying to assimilate structurally disparate economies, not to mention legal systems, democratic histories and processes, cultures and so much more, into one amorphous, centrally-managed blob.

Just sticking with economies, even broad-brush macroeconomic policies require different adjustments depending on the size of and position in economic cycles and the different parts of the EEC/EU are, and always have. been in different places in those cycles at a given point in time. So what helps one hurts another, or what one needs it can't do because it would hurt another. The more the EU expansionism pushed into ever more different economies the worse this got. Ask Greece. Or Ireland. Or .... etc.

Various PMs have had problems with sectors, or factions, of their parties for a very good reason - they pushed ahead with ever-closer integration without bothering to get a mandate from the people. That was a very large part of why John Major had problems with the "*******s" - because he signed us up to Maastricht with no mandate from the people. We elected him and his party to govern, not to give the power to govern away to Brussels. And the same goes for Blair and especially Brown over Lisbon, though Brown at least had the economic foresight to honour those cycles I mentioned and keep us out of ths Euro until his economic tests were satisfied.

The UK has never been fully committed because our own governments, Labour and Tory, have never bothered to get a mandate from the people for what they were doing. And that anger grew and grew, with the real irony that had we had the referendum promised before Maastricht but then not given, or the one Blair/Brown promised before the EU Constitution/Lisbon, there's a pretty good chance they'd have won it, and if so, we wouldn't have had one this June.

All that reluctance, that lack of commitment, is because we were never given a chance to either commit to it, or to opt to leave. No doubt if we had, and the decision to stay had a referendum approval, there'd still be a rabid hardcore refusing to accept it, but my expectation is that a majority of leavers might not like the decision but that if it was a democratic decision of the people, would accept that that was that.

This seems to be something remainers have a problem with - accepting that the country actually did vote to leave. Instead, as is do often the case with the EU, they want us to vote again so we can get it right this time. Like Ireland, France and others.

So what then? If it's Leave again, best of five? And if it's Remain, Leavers will want best of three. We might as well do rock, paper, scissors.

We held a referendum. Both sides fought hard (if truly patronising and stupid) campaigns. We got the will of the people. Leave won, and Remainers need to get over it.

Having been stuck with something many of us said for decades the EEC was really about, centralisation and indeed, federalisation, for 40 years because our succsssive governments changed the game without asking if we wanted to play or not, who knows ... maybe over the next 10 or 20 years the EU will morph into something we can accept, like a closely cooperating group of nation states, and there'll be another referendum .... eventually. After all, not all is sunshine and apple pie in many other EU member states either, and I certainly wouldn't rule out the possibility that the UK will not be the last to leave, or that the EU will morph into something we can rejoin. Maybe.

Finally, and this is my single biggsst reason for wanting to Leave - the EU is, at it's very heart, a closed, navel-gazing, self-absorbed protectionist customs union. You can hear it in the subtext, or even overt tone, of Brussels bureaucrats over Brexit with threats of tariffs and other barriers unless the UK accepts their dictat over freedom of movement and "contributions" to the budget. It's small-minded protectionism at it's worst, designed to work for those on the inside at the cost of everyone on the outside.

Well, okay then. My vote is for the UK to be a smallish but economically still significant player in tne big, wide world rather than a coward huddling behind those protectionist barriers, afraid of the competition from the US, or China, or other developing and browing powers like India, China, etc.

The days of Empire have long gone, contrary to the little-Englander mockery some Remainers like to throw about. Nobody with a functioning brain thinks the UK can dominate either in or out of the EU. But we can and should look to talk to, work with and yes, trade with the rest of the world, not cower behind EU skirts, wanting Mummy Brussels to do it for us. And yes, that includes immigration both from inside and outside the EU but WHEN it is in our interests, not at uncontrolled levels and speeds.

There are risks with Leaving, exactly as there are with Remaining. Nobody sensible thinks the world is ready to come begging at our door now we're leaving. But all the early signs are that the "rest of the world" are at least amenable to, and in some cases, quite keen to increase trade, in both directions, with the UK. Let's get to it.

Leaving is without doubt a challenge with hurdles, but also an opportunity with great potential and now that we've had the vote, and Remain lost, we ought to stop refighting the last battle and get on with making a success of the future.
 
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