Brexit thread - what happens next

Zethor · 27 Jul 2016 at 17:02

scorza said:
Still relying on the discredited LSE to prop up your rapidly collapsing arguments I see.

No worries, scorza! As soon as Brexit is completed and immigrants are stopped, we should see a significant increase in wages. That or you eat your hat, deal?

Darujhistan · 27 Jul 2016 at 18:17

do_ron_ron said:
Really, please tell me the date Britain declared war on Argentina. It was an incident no more.

There was no need, they didn't declare war, so why why would need to declare war against them?

They invaded and then we kicked their arses back into the sea. Two nations fighting militarily over the control of territory. It was a war.

The clue's in the name given to the conflict as well bud.

Cern · 27 Jul 2016 at 18:36

Darujhistan said:
There was no need, they didn't declare war, so why why would need to declare war against them?

They invaded and then we kicked their arses back into the sea. Two nations fighting militarily over the control of territory. It was a war.

The clue's in the name given to the conflict as well bud.

Well the name is misleading as it happens, so the clue isn't in the name.

It was a conflict not a war. There is a difference. War was not formally declared by either side. Pedantic I know, but you seem to be making a big issue out of this and you're wrong I'm afraid.

Darujhistan · 27 Jul 2016 at 18:49

Cern said:
Well the name is misleading as it happens, so the clue isn't in the name.

It was a conflict not a war. There is a difference. War was not formally declared by either side. Pedantic I know, but you seem to be making a big issue out of this and you're wrong I'm afraid.

I don't think it is misleading. I don't care whether war was declared or not, it was a war.

I'm not making a big issue of it either, and it's you that's wrong.

scorza · 27 Jul 2016 at 19:30

Mr Jack said:
Unfortunately for you, your assertion that things are discredited does not actually make it so. I predict that, as usual, you will not bring a single shred of evidence to the argument and instead merely pout and assert that you're right.

Evidence? It's quite simple - every economics student learns about the laws of supply and demand in their first lecture. These laws have been proven to hold true time and time again. It's people who are paid to push the open borders agenda who dispute this with their dodgy academic studies.

Zethor said:
No worries, scorza! As soon as Brexit is completed and immigrants are stopped, we should see a significant increase in wages. That or you eat your hat, deal?

If the government are successful at restricting the supply of labour and demand doesn't decrease then yes, we'll see wages go up in those parts of the economy. Are you seriously disputing this will happen?

Skunkworks · 27 Jul 2016 at 19:41

Ideology trumps the law of supply and demand, Scorza. Didn't you get the memo?

Mr Jack · 27 Jul 2016 at 19:50

scorza said:
Evidence? It's quite simple - every economics student learns about the laws of supply and demand in their first lecture. These laws have been proven to hold true time and time again. It's people who are paid to push the open borders agenda who dispute this with their dodgy academic studies.

Empirical trumps theoretical every time. And time and time again the empirical evidence shows that your ultra-simplistic model of complex reality doesn't work. If your ideas were sound it would be easy for you to point to actual evidence but, as usual, you have nothing to point to.

Caged · 27 Jul 2016 at 19:50

scorza said:
If the government are successful at restricting the supply of labour and demand doesn't decrease then yes, we'll see wages go up in those parts of the economy. Are you seriously disputing this will happen?

The bit where the government restricts the supply of labour is the fantasy part. Big business wants cheaper unskilled labour? A party donation and some corporate hospitality and suddenly it's on the list of in-demand work and we're importing it.

scorza · 27 Jul 2016 at 19:51

Mr Jack said:
Empirical trumps theoretical every time. And time and time again the empirical evidence shows that your ultra-simplistic model of complex reality doesn't work. If your ideas were sound it would be easy for you to point to actual evidence but, as usual, you have nothing to point to.

Is that the same empirical evidence that said we could look forward to 13,000 migrants a year from Poland once they joined the EU?

Caged · 27 Jul 2016 at 19:57

How would a prediction class as empirical evidence :confused:

Mr Jack · 27 Jul 2016 at 20:01

scorza said:
Is that the same empirical evidence that said we could look forward to 13,000 migrants a year from Poland once they joined the EU?

No.

How could it be?

stewski · 27 Jul 2016 at 20:27

scorza said:
Is that the same empirical evidence that said we could look forward to 13,000 migrants a year from Poland once they joined the EU?

Are you attempting to discredit the very idea of empirical evidence?

delta0 · 27 Jul 2016 at 20:49

I see Clegg is back. I didn't know he used to be an EU trade negotiator.

Darujhistan · 27 Jul 2016 at 20:52

do_ron_ron said:
Really, please tell me the date Britain declared war on Argentina. It was an incident no more.

I don't care whether they declared war on not, that's just semantics. I'm sure the Falklanders didn't see it is an 'incident'.

bayo000 · 27 Jul 2016 at 20:54

^
You already replied to that post

scorza · 27 Jul 2016 at 21:04

stewski said:
Are you attempting to discredit the very idea of empirical evidence?

No, I'm saying it wasn't empirical. They made a bunch of assumptions that ensured the predicted migration figure was lower than they knew it was going to be. Hopefully once we Brexit we can go back to proper application of the scientific method rather than this academia-industrial complex that the EU promotes.

Greebo · 27 Jul 2016 at 21:05

scorza said:
Evidence? It's quite simple - every economics student learns about the laws of supply and demand in their first lecture. These laws have been proven to hold true time and time again. It's people who are paid to push the open borders agenda who dispute this with their dodgy academic studies.

If the government are successful at restricting the supply of labour and demand doesn't decrease then yes, we'll see wages go up in those parts of the economy. Are you seriously disputing this will happen?

You are forgetting that in these areas you are talking about the government is looking at bringing in £5 minimum wage instead of £7.50 plus removel of workers rights........can't see the lowest paid wages going up, more likely to go down tbh.

Darujhistan · 27 Jul 2016 at 22:00

bayo000 said:
^
You already replied to that post

I'm becoming desensitised to his Falklands nonsense!

Billies Bangers · 27 Jul 2016 at 22:34

Greebo said:
You are forgetting that in these areas you are talking about the government is looking at bringing in £5 minimum wage instead of £7.50 plus removel of workers rights........can't see the lowest paid wages going up, more likely to go down tbh.

So we've abandoned a race to the bottom in favour of an excavation? :eek:

dlite · 27 Jul 2016 at 22:54

scorza said:
Except that's what happens when you increase the supply of labour - the cost of labour goes down meaning lower pay and conditions for workers, more profits for businesses, and people whose income is determined by profits (business owners, executives) get more money. Entirely predictable through the laws of supply and demand.

Poland's labour force is shrinking, as Poles emigrate to other EU countries to work. Their economy's real wages have grown by 23% in the same period. I'm not saying it's all down to immigration/emigration, but it's clearly a factor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_net_migration_rate
http://static.independent.co.uk/s3f...image/2016/07/27/09/statista-wage-growth.jpeg

Considering that from that picture Spain, Canada, USA, Sweden and Switzerland all have higher immigration figures than UK and still have positive real wage growth, I'd go as far and say that correlation is very weak and causality cannot be proven.

I'm thinking that wages in Poland grow mostly because that is the only way for them to retain workers. Engineering agency in Poland either rises salaries every year by a lot or has a turnover rate of 50% as every person with 1 year of experience buggers off to Germany or UK.