Brexit thread - what happens next

[Cern]

Which I think will be a dumb time to invoke A50.

The Netherlands has elections in March 17.
France has elections in March/April 17.
Germany has elections in September 17.

Any negotiations in 2017 are going to be massively hampered by the various election cycles. All incumbent German and French politicians will insisting on punitive exit conditions as a cheap ratings booster for their own election chances.

A50 should have been invoked this summer.

They couldn't invoke A50 this summer even if they wanted to, only a fraction of the negotiating team are in place and/or trained up.

As for 2017, it's unlikely A50 will get activated until after elections in France & Germany, as we won't really know what political mood we're dealing with in those two major movers and shakers and don't want Brexit being a political football in their election campaigns.

Beyond that ... who knows. The Independent seems to think it might never happen:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...ropean-elections-france-germany-a7198736.html

Wishful thinking by Remainers? Not really, it's just the cold light of day shining on things. Brexiters best go find Nige to create some more hot air to hurry A50 along, I think he was last seen at the German embassy

 

[sityeuropa]

One thing is for sure, we better be well on our way to leaving before the general elections as the current government can kiss their next term goodbye.

More EU army talk lately. Nick Clegg was saying this was a fantasy.

It's all coming out now.

 

[Skunkworks]

It’s going to be fun watching the fundy Remainers crushed for a 2nd time when A50 is triggered. Kind of like buy one get one free.

 

[Amp34]

For all the Remain voters on here what would your red line be for leaving the EU if you don't really care about democracy, sovereignty, defence and borders?

I think you'll find most remainders care about all of those, but understand countries working together are stronger than individually, especially in a world where other powers are getting stronger.

Most remainers also understand what sovereignty actually means, and that there is democracy in the EU, that we have control of our borders (even if we don't use that control fully - I.e. Non eu immigration increases) and that scare stories in the express and mail do not mean something is actually going to happen, and if it does happen (such as this mythical EU army) it will only happen with the consent of the same elected officials leave voters are so kerb on (the British government).

Stop trying to play the whole "leave are patriots, remainers hate their country" game. It got boring months ago. Just because someone doesn't agree with you doesn't mean you're right (or that the other person is either for that matter).

 

[Amp34]

One thing is for sure, we better be well on our way to leaving before the general elections as the current government can kiss their next term goodbye.

More EU army talk lately. Nick Clegg was saying this was a fantasy.

It's all coming out now.

The current government will kiss their term good he if they invoke it as well. The conservatives are screwed, it's a poison chalice. The only way out of a complete drubbing is if labour are still fighting each other.

It’s going to be fun watching the fundy Remainers crushed for a 2nd time when A50 is triggered. Kind of like buy one get one free.

I wonder how much more the pound can devalue... Another 10+% drop when it happens?

 

[Chris Wilson]

This is the kind insanity that made British citizens vote to leave the EU, Juncker spouting forth the other day whilst Europe is overrun by economic migrants and faces a surge to the right. He doggedly denies the Liberal experiment is falling apart at the seams and continues rhetoric that will surely just add yet more nails to the EU coffin.

Meanwhile a top economist predicts the Euro is about to implode with massive consequences.

'Borders are the worst invention ever!' EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker widens rift with European leaders as he calls for open borders

Juncker risks widening splits with EU leaders with contentious remarks
Says borders should be scrapped despite migrant rush and terror attacks
Insists a stronger EU is best way to combating rising trend in nationalism


Full article is at:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ft-European-leaders-calls-borders-opened.html

 

[Bonjour]

Full article at.... Daily Mail

 

[n111ck]

I think you'll find most remainders care about all of those, but understand countries working together are stronger than individually, especially in a world where other powers are getting stronger.

Most remainers also understand what sovereignty actually means, and that there is democracy in the EU, that we have control of our borders (even if we don't use that control fully - I.e. Non eu immigration increases) and that scare stories in the express and mail do not mean something is actually going to happen, and if it does happen (such as this mythical EU army) it will only happen with the consent of the same elected officials leave voters are so kerb on (the British government).

Stop trying to play the whole "leave are patriots, remainers hate their country" game. It got boring months ago. Just because someone doesn't agree with you doesn't mean you're right (or that the other person is either for that matter).

Ok so what is your red line?

 

[Chris Wilson]

Full article at.... Daily Mail

Perhaps you don't believe he said this? Here it is in the Guardian, perhaps you find that source more credible?

"The trilateral meeting came as the European commission’s president, Jean-Claude Juncker, claimed at a forum in Austria that national borders were “the worst invention ever made by politicians,” prompting Theresa May’s spokeswoman to respond that the claim was “not something the prime minister would agree with”.

Full article at:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/22/beginning-new-europe-merkel-renzi-hollande

 

[Amp34]

A hostile/armed takeover of the U.K. by the EU?

We elect our leaders to to make those decisions, and hopefully the decisions they make are best for our country and follow the wants of the people.

There are plenty of things I disagree with regarding the EU, but I also realize that most of them are in place because they were agreed on (and in some cases instigated by) the British government. And in that vein I believe that the UK should be and stay an independent nation (which it is and was), but at the same time if in 50 years it makes sense for it to become part of a superstate, backed by the British government and people then so be it. That's how democracy in this country works, for better or worse.

So basically it goes back to the first sentence, my red line is a hostile/armed takeover of the U.K., but that doesn't mean I agree with everything or want the the UK to disappear.

Out of interest what is your red line.

 

[Amp34]

Perhaps you don't believe he said this? Here it is in the Guardian, perhaps you find that source more credible?

"The trilateral meeting came as the European commission’s president, Jean-Claude Juncker, claimed at a forum in Austria that national borders were “the worst invention ever made by politicians,” prompting Theresa May’s spokeswoman to respond that the claim was “not something the prime minister would agree with”.

Full article at:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/22/beginning-new-europe-merkel-renzi-hollande

At least that's a coherent paragraph, unlike the mails article.

Depending on context it doesn't seem hugely "wrong" . National borders have been the cause of a huge amount of friction around the world. I believe, reading the mails article, he was expressly talking about the re establishing of physical borders in the EU free movement area - I.e. the barbed wire fences between EU nations, which don't seem a particularly good idea do they...?

Ironically both articles are mostly about the worry of the rise of nationalism, which can end up with very negative consequences.

 

[Bonjour]

Perhaps you don't believe he said this? Here it is in the Guardian, perhaps you find that source more credible?

"The trilateral meeting came as the European commission’s president, Jean-Claude Juncker, claimed at a forum in Austria that national borders were “the worst invention ever made by politicians,” prompting Theresa May’s spokeswoman to respond that the claim was “not something the prime minister would agree with”.

Full article at:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/22/beginning-new-europe-merkel-renzi-hollande

That's better. Much more informative.

 

[StriderX]

At least that's a coherent paragraph, unlike the mails article.

Depending on context it doesn't seem hugely "wrong" . National borders have been the cause of a huge amount of friction around the world. I believe, reading the mails article, he was expressly talking about the re establishing of physical borders in the EU free movement area - I.e. the barbed wire fences between EU nations, which don't seem a particularly good idea do they...?

Junker is aggravating man, with no connection to the real world, he just wants his world view accomplished like every other rich bureaucrat, at any cost to the likes of the lesser nations.

Thankfully every comment he slings out of his drunkard mouth, is another farce that pushes Germany (the official bank roll of the EU) further away.

 

[Amp34]

True, Junker certainly isn't helping the EUs cause unfortunately.

 

[wildman]

Well lets just face it, if the EU collapses it will be GB's fault. If another war happens it will be GB's fault. If there is a recession anywhere it will be a Brexit fault.

What ever happens for the next 10 years will be a Brexit decision fault.

Obsessive 'part of the club' will remain for donkey's years to come. We haven't even triggered article 50 but Bremainers will only see the downside on some lost hope they can overrule democracy.

Can we not give the experts a chance before writing our country off?

you mean give the experts a chance even though the brexit hero squad said they were shills, but suddenly when they are tooting your horn they are experts again ? you mean those experts right ?....................

I can taste the ferrous flavors coming through strong like Iron Brew........................

 

[Concrete]

I think its fair to say that Brexit is never going to happen at this point.

Really glad that places like this forum are effectively going to act like a pressure relieve valve for people who voted to leave to vent as they gradually come to accept that. (I know, its going to take years!)

 

[StriderX]

I think its fair to say that Brexit is never going to happen at this point.

Really glad that places like this forum are effectively going to act like a pressure relieve valve for people who voted to leave to vent as they gradually come to accept that. (I know, its going to take years!)

Lol, sure.

Denial – The first reaction is denial. In this stage individuals believe the diagnosis is somehow mistaken, and cling to a false, preferable reality.
Anger – When the individual recognizes that denial cannot continue, they become frustrated, especially at proximate individuals. Certain psychological responses of a person undergoing this phase would be: "Why me? It's not fair!"; "How can this happen to me?"; '"Who is to blame?"; "Why would this happen?".
Bargaining – The third stage involves the hope that the individual can avoid a cause of grief. Usually, the negotiation for an extended life is made in exchange for a reformed lifestyle. People facing less serious trauma can bargain or seek compromise.
Depression – "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"; "I'm going to die soon, so what's the point?"; "I miss my loved one, why go on?"
During the fourth stage, the individual despairs at the recognition of their mortality. In this state, the individual may become silent, refuse visitors and spend much of the time mournful and sullen.
Acceptance – "It's going to be okay."; "I can't fight it, I may as well prepare for it."
In this last stage, individuals embrace mortality or inevitable future, or that of a loved one, or other tragic event. People dying may precede the survivors in this state, which typically comes with a calm, retrospective view for the individual, and a stable condition of emotions.

 

[n111ck]

 

[John40]

I think its fair to say that Brexit is never going to happen at this point.

Keep thinking that, who cares what you think.

 

[Skunkworks]

I think its fair to say that Brexit is never going to happen at this point.

Really glad that places like this forum are effectively going to act like a pressure relieve valve for people who voted to leave to vent as they gradually come to accept that. (I know, its going to take years!)

Bookmarked for future lols.