Theory question about probability in online casino games

danlightbulb

danlightbulb

danlightbulb

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Hi all.

Online slot machines work by using a constantly running random number generator. When you press the spin button, whatever number is in the RNG at the time is what determines the reel combination that will be displayed on the screen. Apparently, a slot has no memory of previous spins or payouts. Each and every spin is random.

For those who have played online slots though, it certainly doesn't feel like this is the case. I only play online slots with free money (essentially sign up offers and the like). But what I commonly see is that if I hit a win, then the slot feels like it goes on the rob. If it was truly random, I wouldn't expect to see this same pattern of win, rob, win, rob, over and over again.

Is this just misperception (because true randomness can often feel counter intuitive), or is there something else going on in the slot that allows it to switch on the robbing mode?



A second question relates to roulette. Let's say you are playing only red and black. Forgetting the zero for the moment, over a long period the number of reds and blacks would be equal at 50% chance each.

However it feels counter intuitive to say that the odds of 10 reds in a row are the same as the odds of any other mixed combination.

I have witnessed many long red or black streaks. If you were playing a strategy of sticking to one colour for 10 spins, does probability theory in any way help you decide to switch colours or not? For example let's say you bet on red 5 times in a row and black comes out every time. Should you switch colours?
 
I think its just perception - I don't gamble with real money but I've played various online games of chance, etc. from poker through to game related stuff and seen that pattern crop up all the time even on sites which fully published, with verification, their algorithms.

EDIT: The trick is always to know when to walk away - even when sometimes it isn't the obvious position. When I've played a disciplined game I've almost always come out on top even if not always lucratively/worth the effort - as soon as I start chasing wins eventually it goes down the pan one way or another.
 
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danlightbulb said:
A second question relates to roulette. Let's say you are playing only red and black. Forgetting the zero for the moment, over a long period the number of reds and blacks would be equal at 50% chance each.

However it feels counter intuitive to say that the odds of 10 reds in a row are the same as the odds of any other mixed combination.

I have witnessed many long red or black streaks. If you were playing a strategy of sticking to one colour for 10 spins, does probability theory in any way help you decide to switch colours or not? For example let's say you bet on red 5 times in a row and black comes out every time. Should you switch colours?
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in reference to your second question:

firstly you're obviously correct in that when ignoring zero the portion of reds and blacks (in the long term) should indeed be 50/50

probability can indeed be counter-intuitive - for example if you wanted to bet with a friend whether a particular sequence would come up before another then there are differing probabilities.

example, looking for a particular sequences of 3 spins, red black black is much more likely to occur first than black black black...(7 times more likely in fact) have a think about why that is.

unfortunately this doesn't however help you with the game of roulette (which has no memory) but could help you placing side bets with degenerate friends :)
 
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FurryLemon said:
Poker isn't a game of chance. I'd avoid giving advice on things you know nothing about.
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yes it is, it is a combination of both chance and skill... though the vast majority of offline recreational players won't play enough hands for the skill component (assuming that their level is sufficient for a +EV effect on their play in the first place) to even start to dominate the chance component(check any online variance demo for an illustration)
 
danlightbulb said:
For example let's say you bet on red 5 times in a row and black comes out every time. Should you switch colours?
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No. The previous spin makes no difference whatsoever. Makes me laugh when I see people at the roulette tables all looking at the board that shows previous spins and trying to work out what to place next based on those results.
 
G-MAN2004 said:
No. The previous spin makes no difference whatsoever. Makes me laugh when I see people at the roulette tables all looking at the board that shows previous spins and trying to work out what to place next based on those results.
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This, may as well just pick a colour and stick to it as it makes no difference at all. Pretending that it has memory is a fallacy that leads people to losing a lot of money.
 
It's very difficult to for anyone to understand chance imo. We place huge significance on future events and past and feel they should affect each other even though they do not.
We're taught conflicting stories, that are hard to deny, I.e chances of 5 blacks in a row is high and a 6th would be 1/64 chance, which seems like a very low possibility. But only in the context of the past, which doesn't affect the future. It's still 50/50 (or 48.5 to be pedantic) how can it be both 1/64 and 50/50, because the two frames of reference are different and we as humans can perceive both at the same time (past and future) regardless they don't affect the present. I suppose it's a bit like Schroedingers cat,until it's happened.
Boggles my mind.
 
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dowie said:
yes it is, it is a combination of both chance and skill... though the vast majority of offline recreational players won't play enough hands for the skill component (assuming that their level is sufficient for a +EV effect on their play in the first place) to even start to dominate the chance component(check any online variance demo for an illustration)
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I would have said it was a game of Chance, Skill and Psychology.

How can you play poker on-line?? You need to be able to see the other players sweat! :p
 
ive had 14 blacks on the trott whilst betting on red with free money at Ladbrokes online casino, seemed rather odd at the time, taught me a lesson... never played it since :)
 
People get chance wrong all the time. Ask a bunch of people whether a coin toss will be heads or tails after 10 consecutive heads and majority of people will say tails as they think in their head over time that the number of heads and tails will even out.

Of course its still 50/50. Same goes for the roulette table.

One of the few things I remember form Uni is that fact that you only need a group of 30 people for there to be a 50% chance that two people will have the same birthday (in fact its not quite right due to more birthdays being in August/September than any other months)

Logic to most people dictates it would be 183 people.

cainer said:
ive had 14 blacks on the trott whilst betting on red with free money at Ladbrokes online casino, seemed rather odd at the time, taught me a lesson... never played it since :)
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Just as likely as any other combination..............same way people would be amazed if 1,2,3,4,5,6 came up on the Lottery.
 
danlightbulb said:
[..]
For those who have played online slots though, it certainly doesn't feel like this is the case. I only play online slots with free money (essentially sign up offers and the like). But what I commonly see is that if I hit a win, then the slot feels like it goes on the rob. If it was truly random, I wouldn't expect to see this same pattern of win, rob, win, rob, over and over again.

Is this just misperception (because true randomness can often feel counter intuitive), or is there something else going on in the slot that allows it to switch on the robbing mode?
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Could be either, depending on how regulated the online gambling market is.

However, gamblers very often detect patterns in gambling that really aren't there. I see it myself, frequently. Even in games that are as close to truly random as is practical with current technology.

It's true for pretty much everything, but I think it's especially so in gambling.

Humans are so strongly wired to detect patterns that it's not unusual for humans to detect patterns that don't exist. Once a pattern is believed to exist, confirmation bias kicks in too.

There is a trend, though. AWPs are programmed to pay out a %age of what goes in. They will tend to oscillate around that percentage to some extent, though generally not on a scale that should be noticeable. The trends would usually occur over a larger number of spins than a person would notice, i.e. if the payout %age has gone over (or under) the target %age by enough then a slightly lower (or higher) %age over a larger number of spins is more likely than a far lower (or higher) %age over a smaller number of spins.

A second question relates to roulette. Let's say you are playing only red and black. Forgetting the zero for the moment, over a long period the number of reds and blacks would be equal at 50% chance each.

However it feels counter intuitive to say that the odds of 10 reds in a row are the same as the odds of any other mixed combination.
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Probability theory is often counter-intuitive. I found it the hardest part of A level maths to understand because of that. But being counter-intuitive doesn't mean it's wrong.

If my very ropey understanding is correct, 10 repetitions of something with 2 possible outcomes has 1024 possible combinations. So if we ignore the green(s) for the sake of simplicity, the chance of getting 10 consecutive reds is 1/1024th the chance of not getting 10 consecutive reds. Hardly surprising that 10 reads seems far less likely than any mixed combination - it is far less likely. But not less likely than any other specific single set of results.
 
I don't gamble but if I did, it certainly wouldn't be on a machine you are trusting to have a set probability of winning. I'd stick to cards, dice, roulette etc.
 
Orionaut said:
I would have said it was a game of Chance, Skill and Psychology.

How can you play poker on-line?? You need to be able to see the other players sweat! :p
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tells/reads are often unreliable

that falls under skill anyway

Greebo said:
People get chance wrong all the time. Ask a bunch of people whether a coin toss will be heads or tails after 10 consecutive heads and majority of people will say tails as they think in their head over time that the number of heads and tails will even out.
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Just curious but have you got a source for that? Or are you using 'majority of' in place of 'some'?
 
Orionaut said:
I would have said it was a game of Chance, Skill and Psychology.

How can you play poker on-line?? You need to be able to see the other players sweat! :p
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Online poker is not that much different from live poker in how you play. You still have to know how to play.

Seating position is key (you wouldn't raise with a4 in early posistion, but you could in late position. Against certain opponents there could even be an argument for a re-raise)

Knowing when to raise

Knowing when to check

Knowing when to fold due to implied odds, even if you think you're ahead

Knowing when to bluff, what hands you can bluff with and when you can check bluff all in on the river

Knowing your opponent. Are they a maniac, are they tight etc

and so on.

Some people think poker is out and out gambling, and they are soooooo far from the truth. There is an aspect of gambling, but skill keeps you from being felted (hitting hands helps of course..)
 
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