Bank Holiday Horror
- Thread starter Sliver
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Actually, the number of miles driven by humans is increasingly insignificant. As of July 2016 google's cars alone had driven 1.7 million miles, per Wikipedia, which I'm confident in saying is more than 99.99999999% of humans has driven in their lifetime.
Let's say we all - humans and driverless cars - start from the same point of knowledge of driving, based on the collective human experience of driving since the inception of the car to date. Except wait, no, as soon as you switch a driverless car on, it already has all the knowledge of every driverless car that has input data into the system it uses, so it's already ahead. Anyway. From there, we are taught to drive, then we learn from our experiences. No one human benefits from the driving experiences of other humans, except in the loosest sense. I mean, how often do you learn from something that happened to another driver? On the other hand, driverless cars do learn in that way because they all share that pool of information and they all learn from it. So while I have driven, say, 100,000 miles in the 16 years I've been driving, every single one of google's cars has already experienced 1.7 million miles of driving.
This ridiculous disparity will only continue to grow, as more driverless cars learn more. If a hundred of us humans went out and drove 8 hours one day, goodness knows why, we would all gain 8 hours experience, and it's unlikely we'd gain any more from each other, unless someone had some stupendous tale that actually merited telling, and we could learn something from it that we would assimilate into our driving practices. We can't share our experiences and all our data from our day of driving in anything but the vaguest sense. Conversely, f a hundred google cars drive 8 hours one day, they all gain 800 hours of perfectly detailed driving data, as though they had all driven those 800 hours in one day.
Remember when the terminator said that skynet learned at a geometric rate? Yeah.
@Vonhelmet That's actually a really good point! Well made.
As a "Pro-Driver" I'm up to about 2.2 million miles and have learnt from other peoples mistakes but now my reflexes, eyesight etc are no longer what they used to be I use "intuition" much more than ever.
I'm actually ok with Driverless vehicles taking over my job because they'll still need a "Steering Wheel Attendant" for a fair while yet and those night trunks from Peterborough to Taunton and back should be a lot less mind numbing.
There's a long way to go with equalising the technologies though...
I'm not going to retype it all out so here's my reply on The Reg
I'm actually ok with Driverless vehicles taking over my job because they'll still need a "Steering Wheel Attendant" for a fair while yet and those night trunks from Peterborough to Taunton and back should be a lot less mind numbing.
There's a long way to go with equalising the technologies though...
I'm not going to retype it all out so here's my reply on The Reg
except they're not starting from the same point... roads aren't/weren't built with driverless cars in mind
can you think of any other kind of automation that isn't strict programmed movements, or sensors/guides in place to direct the machine?
I'm thinking of the videos of robots trying to pick up a a box with symbols printed on them, and taking ages, dropping them etc!
They start with more knowledge than any of us start with, because the principles and rules and all past experience is programmed into them.
How exactly do you think roads are so unsuitable for driverless cars?
Try thinking about something that isn't from the 1980s then. Robots do surgery and fly planes nowadays. Segways monitor your balance 10,000 times a second, for heaven's sake.builder22 said:
And that is a big part of the problem.
As I have said to others, If I can't go down to the Pub in my "Autonomous Car", consume ten pints of Stella, and have "Jeeves" drive me home while I am lying semi conscious across the back seat. I cant really see the point...
And as for "Steering Wheel Attendant" When things go **** up on the road, you have about 500ms to react to it (If that).
I do not really see how a "Passenger" in an autonomous vehicle could ever be expected to be able to snap out of zombie mode quick enough to effectively take control if anything unexpected happens.
when you say driverless do you mean nobody in the car or more of an auto pilot? being able to take your hands off the wheel and not being in the car are a fair bit different..
is there really a fully autonomous robot used for surgery?? I searched and found a trial with one used to stitch up....a pig, took 30 mins for the robot but 8 mins for the human although the robot was neater...
planes have plenty space and not many variables...
is there really a fully autonomous robot used for surgery?? I searched and found a trial with one used to stitch up....a pig, took 30 mins for the robot but 8 mins for the human although the robot was neater...
planes have plenty space and not many variables...
Ok, well, whatever. It's coming and it will happen in our lifetimes. There's just too much to be gained in terms of safety and - crucially - money. Freight haulage, taxis, public transport, they all want to get the meat out of the driver's seat. All the whining in the world isn't going to stop it.
not whining mate, just being realistic. The roads won't be filled with Johnny Cabs and driverless trucks in 20-30-40... years time. That'll only happen when there's absolutely no risk of the computer causing an accident, which is what I can't see being possible with roads like what we have now
it's not like automated vehicles are a new thought, they've been working on them for decades...
also, I can't find a single video or article of a truck+trailer that can reverse!
who knows I might be wrong but think I'm being pretty sensible about it..
it's not like automated vehicles are a new thought, they've been working on them for decades...
also, I can't find a single video or article of a truck+trailer that can reverse!
who knows I might be wrong but think I'm being pretty sensible about it..
This^.
There are 5 levels of automation as shown on the chart below. Currently, driverless vehicles are at level 3. There was a documentary on this recently, maybe some of you saw it. As Vonhlmet pointed out, full automation is coming and it will happen within our lifetimes.
The table below defines each level of automation.
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Will a driver-less car be able to look at the youths in the car next to it at the traffic lights, see their agitated state, their blinged up car and suspect the driver may do something rash based on past experience of groups of youths in blinged up cars? Will it see the elderly lady with the hat, and judge her reactions may be suspect due to age and maybe poor eyesight? Will it look for shadows of vehicles hidden around blind bends, or look for HGV's across hedgerows and anticipate meeting them? Will it be able to judge if said vehicle is stationary or moving? Will it see the poorly secured sheet of steel on the artic trailer that the wind is starting to lift and might scythe the roof off a following vehicle? Will it intuitively correct a skid or decide to plant the car in the hedge rather than hit an oncoming vehicle with the combined speed of impact, or perceive an oil film from diesel spillage on a wet road? I'll take a competent human behind the wheel of a vehicle I am an occupant of for the foreseeable future, thanks very much.
And that is a big part of the problem.
As I have said to others, If I can't go down to the Pub in my "Autonomous Car", consume ten pints of Stella, and have "Jeeves" drive me home while I am lying semi conscious across the back seat. I cant really see the point...
And as for "Steering Wheel Attendant" When things go **** up on the road, you have about 500ms to react to it (If that).
I do not really see how a "Passenger" in an autonomous vehicle could ever be expected to be able to snap out of zombie mode quick enough to effectively take control if anything unexpected happens.
No it is more that the steering wheel attendance will be required for the first and last 100M rolling around the depot at 5mph or should there be an obstical in the road that the computer can not get past or becomes stuck in some way. Or pulling the car onto a driveway where there are no road markings etc.
When things go wrong on the road the machine is already capable of reacting to it much faster than a human just look at what Tesla's are capable of and that is only level 3 (this is what you are referring to in your post). What is being discussed here is level 5 autonomy (as in no driver, no steering wheel/pedals etc).
EDIT: too slow see above.
Yet you are presumably happy to fly on a plane, which flies it's self, despite the fact that a car crash is more survivable than a plane crash, generally speaking.
Not relevant because their car will be automated.... also your car would not try and race them like the current owner of said BMW/Merc/Audi.
Again see above.
Yes put simply. Also HGV's would be driven properly and not in the middle of the road....
If it came off it would stop far quicker than you could and would leave a safe distance to the vehicle in front unlike almost all drivers today, a normal driver wouldn't even bat an eyelid lets be honest.
The car wouldn't need to correct a skid because it isn't driving too fast for the conditions. Again human drivers don't anticipate this kind of danger but there is unlikely to be any diesel on the roads because you know electric and hydrogen cars/lorries
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CAN-BUS computer control of vehicle peripherals is already a major cause of technical issues on modern cars, what methods will be used for control of servo motors and suchlike where a failure could have disastrous consequences? Aircraft have many back up systems, the wiring is hugely complex, and heavy, even using modern Teflon insulated silver conductor cables, and the cost implications will be astronomic. Servicing and diagnostics will be similarly eye wateringly complex and expensive. We need less people, not autonomous vehicles, more rail links, more roads and more houses.
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To build a car to the same standards as a commercial or military aircraft, and maintain it to the same standards would put car ownership out of the reach of the vast majority of the population.
That hasn't answered my question. So let me try again. You are presumably happy to fly on a plane, which flies it's self, despite the fact that a car crash is more survivable than a plane crash, generally speaking.
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Oh, right, so there will be an instant change over to ALL autonomous vehicles, there won't be an interim period where they exist alongside vehicles under human control? That'll be an interesting cost and logistics issue....
