How long until manufacturers go completely electric?

BEV = Battery only.

Like I said, I don't disagree there will be vehicles that need to have a long range but we know that most of those American pickups do less than 32 miles a day (11.5k/year average). Most just own them as we do hatchbacks rather than being actual commercial vehicles. The need to have a mandatory 600 miles range is pointless for most people. They really just don't travel that far, 250 miles + 120kw fast charging at a price not that much higher than ICE is the tipping point for the vast majority of people.


And presumably by ICE you mean anything that isn't fully BEV (so ICE= PHEV and hybrid as well)?

Averages don't really tell the whole story. While there are undoubtedly a lot that of pickup owners that could do with a hatchback there are also a lot (arguably the majority) where that's just not the case (in my experience). Most people I know with pickups have them for a reason, and if they could do without a pickup they would need at the very least a large SUV.

To give you an example of that;
I have a pickup and only drive 7000-8000 miles a year but the majority of the time I'm in it I'm driving at least 130 miles (minimum, each way). Using your example of 250 miles of range that means I would have to charge on my way back (possible), but now we need to take 25%* off that range for winter (that is the realistic range loss of a Model S in -20) so I need to do a 70% recharge to get home (and currently go way out of my way to do so). Possible, but having to spend 30 minutes waiting to recharge would get boring fast. That's the minimum distance I travel in it. I could go with a hatchback but I need something with higher ground clearance and AWD/4WD, so it would have to be at the very least a crossover. Then I'd need something long enough to sleep and cook in (during the winter), so a crossover is out. That leaves me with a van (and having to drive around in a van even when I don't need it), or I can get a pickup and camper back. That also means I can use it (and do relatively regularly) to pick up 3/4 of a tonne of materials. Now, with the truck camper how much electric range would I lose on top of the 25% winter loss? I'd probably be closer to 150 miles on a charge and possibly have to recharge on the way out...

As another example my neighbor also has a Pickup truck. He probably doesn't do many more km in it than I do as he also doesn't commute in it. He has it because he tows a large trailer/caravan or a boat several times a year, so a hatchback is no good either. Using the Model X as a good example of what towing does to efficiency, we can chop 70 miles off that 250mile range (with just a 1.5tonne load), and that's in warm weather with a small trailer doing 55mph. So when it's cold and he's towing a (much) larger load and he's not slowing the traffic down, you 250 mile range is probably closer to 125 miles. A quarter to a third of third of his journey would be attached to a charger.

I could give you other examples, but presumably that shows the point I'm making. Many people have pickups, not because they are needed day to day, but because they are a good compromise for the times they are needed. The other alternatives could be a large SUV (with about the same efficiency), renting a vehicle regularly (and all the difficulty that entails, especially if you need a specialty vehicle), or buying two vehicles instead of just one.

That's not even discussing the requirements of businesses.

That's not to say an EV pickup would fail. For many it may well be a good option, but for many there really does need to be an option that gives a few hundred miles of range in cold climates pulling/loaded with large loads. Personally I'd love a BEV Pickup too, but it would need to allow me to do 260 miles in winter - so it would need at least 340 miles of range, plus another 10% so I'm not rinsing the battery every other week, plus a safety blanket just in case I get stuck overnight in subzero temperatures, so realistically closer to 400 miles). ICE/mild hybrid/PHEV in this sort of vehicle will make sense for at least the next decade, or until EV tech advances quite a lot to make that sort of range affordable.

(sorry, long meandering post, but it hopefully explains my position).

The point is how low do the ICE volumes need to get before a manufacturer will start to divest, they will not have the resources to have a full range of ICE and BEV alongside each-other especially against the backdrop of ever stricter emissions regulations. Once the divesting starts, the segment will die pretty quickly.

I agree in part. There are segments that BEV will make a lot of sense, and ICE derivative engines will likely die out pretty quickly when battery costs come down (and there's a sufficient supply). Small hatchbacks and saloons would be a good example, but other segments, especially in other parts of the world (outside Europe) will not be able to transition without a significant enhancement in EV tech. In those segments you'll probably see PHEV and BEV co existing for quite a while, hence why most major manufacturers are likely to have ICE related engines in their fleets for the next couple of decades.

*And that's generous, it appears it can be closer to a 50% range loss in double digit negative numbers.
http://fortune.com/2018/01/04/the-tesla-model-x-is-almost-the-perfect-winter-car/
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-range-sub-zero-snowy-weather/

EDIT: Ouch. More towing information.
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-x-energy-consumption-towing-various-trailers-video/
If that's right then you're looking at halving your range with something as simple as a horse box! So basically EV's aren't practical tow vehicles at all (yet) and it shows just why Tesla are so caught up on aero for their vehicles.

rnage-tow.jpg
 
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I think more petrol station owners should be looking at either buying or licencing charging technology. It makes sense for both them and consumers. They have the infrastructure in the right locations so could roll out charging stations quite quickly, which is what's needed if the hoped for fast transition occurs.
 
Looking forward to seeing a fast charger in every fuel station. As long as they're comparable in price to the ones from Ecotricity, I'd be happy. Will certainly help with range anxiety.
 
I've always thought the company that should get on board with this is McDonalds. They've all got small car parks dotted all over the country in ideal locations - and having a McDonalds meal is about the same time as fast charging a car.
 
Looking forward to seeing a fast charger in every fuel station. As long as they're comparable in price to the ones from Ecotricity, I'd be happy. Will certainly help with range anxiety.

Except when there is inevitably a queue. Or it's out of order like a lot of the ones at service stations seem to be :P
 
Except when there is inevitably a queue. Or it's out of order like a lot of the ones at service stations seem to be :p
I very rarely see a charger out of order these days. If they are - it's because some ham fisted moron has pushed the emergency stop button.

At a proper fuel station with ANPR cameras recording them, I'd imagine people might treat the equipment with a bit more respect.
 
I've always thought the company that should get on board with this is McDonalds. They've all got small car parks dotted all over the country in ideal locations - and having a McDonalds meal is about the same time as fast charging a car.

That’s actually a good call. Plug in, grab a milkshake and fries and relax for 10-15 minutes.

Hotel chains should get in on the action too, especially companies like Super8 as they are everywhere in North America.
 
No idea if it's been brought up but I think nearly all electric in Europe isn't as far away as some predict. They've lots of advantages which will see adoption rise and if it rises significantly the traditional petrol markets will have a rough time, meaning fewer stations and higher prices, producing a reinforcing feedback loop.

Still hard to stick any dates on it all though! City charging will take some work.
 
I've always thought the company that should get on board with this is McDonalds. They've all got small car parks dotted all over the country in ideal locations - and having a McDonalds meal is about the same time as fast charging a car.

It will be interesting to see if the supermarkets get in the game, contract it out to people like Charge Master or just ignore it completely. You can easily lose an hour in a supermarket when you do your shopping.

They must know their fuel business is going to start to decline significantly after 2030. Norway has already reported their first drop in overall petrol and diesel consumption which is a huge sign for the industry.

You would think they will want to go all in seeing as they are big enough and have the cash to do it. I suspect they will see it as a bit risky and go with the latter.
 
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It will be interesting to see if the supermarkets get in the game, contract it out to people like Charge Master or just ignore it completely. You can easily lose an hour in a supermarket when you do your shopping.

They must know their fuel business is going to start to decline significantly after 2030. Norway has already reported their first drop in overall petrol and diesel consumption which is a huge sign for the industry.

You would think they will want to go all in seeing as they are big enough and have the cash to do it. I suspect they will see it as a bit risky and go with the latter.

Our newest supersize lidl has charging points in the car park. So it is starting to happen.
 
Asda near me has had them for years. Rarely go but last night one was being utilised by a Vauxhall Corsa...

Of course to minimise installation they will be near the stores and hence prone to being ICE’d
 
Asda near me has had them for years. Rarely go but last night one was being utilised by a Vauxhall Corsa...

Of course to minimise installation they will be near the stores and hence prone to being ICE’d
My local shopping centre has put up new signs warning of fines and painted them all bright colours. They don't get ICE'd quite as often now.
 
Unless they are council issued fines, they aren't enforceable though. Plus someone will have to watch them all the time and actually check the vehicle type, so they probably CBA. It's a similar thing to the family parking spaces.
 
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Unless they are council issued fines, they aren't enforceable though. Plus someone will have to watch them all the time and actually check the vehicle type, so they probably CBA. It's a similar thing to the family parking spaces.
Depends how bothered the parking company were to get you. Unless you have fair grounds to appeal - I fear you'd do no better than this lawyer. Especially as parking in these spaces actually causes them financial loss.
 
Depends how bothered the parking company were to get you. Unless you have fair grounds to appeal - I fear you'd do no better than this lawyer. Especially as parking in these spaces actually causes them financial loss.

Most of the time simply ignoring private parking charges gets you under the radar. It's a lot of admin work for them to keep having to chase unresponsive people (vs those who panic and pay up), often ending with it going nowhere, so they don't bother.

Unless there is a physical barrier stopping people, it will get abused.
 
Understanding the different charging solutions is one of the bigger perceptive barriers for the adoption of EV's with normal consumers. Most people are just used to going to the filling station and picking up the green nozzle or the black nozzle. Lets be realistic once EV's get out beyond early adopters we are going to see people trying to plug their CCS car into a Chademo socket.

I spotted this interesting start up today to try and make it simple. They have assigned each type of socket a colour and the types of charging speed a number, the higher the number the faster the charge. They then put it all on a map like zap-map and are now trying to get everyone in Oregon to sign up to it and label their chargers appropriately. It's so basic and it takes out all of the technical jargon that just turns normal people off, I'm surprised its not a thing already.

http://www.chargeway.net/easy-to-use/


I imagine we will end up with some silly naming scheme like broadband here. It keeps getting faster so you have to keep adding a new word onto the front of fast to make it sound faster then the last word. Eventually no one knows which is actually the fastest its so stupid....
 
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Possibly some form of regulation regarding payment may be useful as well. Do companies really need to require you to have an account and sign upto each one? What’s the problem with just having a standard credit/debit card payment (via preauthorisation) as is standard with petrol stations now.
 
What about the environment impact of these batteries? We know that they don't last long, just like our mobile phones. If these batteries wear out after a few years use, can these batteries be recycled or be safely disposed of? Also replacing batteries for owners will cost thousands.

Just surprised that there is very little information of this everywhere I read about electric vehicles. Also that they don't last well in colder weather and what about that you may need to use evening headlights and heating on etc? Again, I don't see any information on this as well.
 
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