Soldato
When are you going fully electric?
- Thread starter Ricochet J
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Soldato
... and I'd still buy one if the RHD was available now! Maybe not in a year or so when there should be more choice or I can finally upgrade my i3 battery 
Should be some informative vids to follow.
Should be some informative vids to follow.
Soldato
The next 3-5 years should be very interesting in the EV market, not only do you have the likes of Volvo, VW, Porsche and many others releasing EVs with within the next couple years, there's also incredible advancements in battery technology coming that could completely transform everything, solid state batteries will be revolutionary and are already being tested in small volumes.
There also the rapid advancement of AI and autonomous technology which will disrupt the entire market, there's a good chance by 2025 that owning a car will be a thing of the past, I can imagine as a job, driving will be dead for all but the most complex of journeys.
Battery costs are continuing to drop rapidly, they are down by ~60% from 2014 prices and with Tesla's Giga Factory in Nevada pumping out more Li-Ion batteries on its own than the rest of the market combined I can imagine prices will high rock bottom very quickly.
There also the rapid advancement of AI and autonomous technology which will disrupt the entire market, there's a good chance by 2025 that owning a car will be a thing of the past, I can imagine as a job, driving will be dead for all but the most complex of journeys.
Battery costs are continuing to drop rapidly, they are down by ~60% from 2014 prices and with Tesla's Giga Factory in Nevada pumping out more Li-Ion batteries on its own than the rest of the market combined I can imagine prices will high rock bottom very quickly.
You really think this is going to be the case in six years? I’m convinced the technology will rapidly evolve, but some people way over estimate the rate it will happen. I’ll be very impressed if properly autonomous vehicles are available to purchase in 2035, never mind 2025.
Soldato
It's a massively disruptive technology that once it works, will just exponentially increase in use. 2019 is when Telsa will be releasing the Tesla Semi Truck which has autonomous features, numerous large companies in the USA have ordered them including Wallmart which own Asda. Give it a year or so of trials and rapid improvements by Telsa thanks to the huge amount of data they will be getting and its not at all impossible that autonomous trucks will be on the road by 2020/2021, most likely for the easier trips like distribution centre to store, probably with a baby sitter on board to take over control once it gets into a town or where needed.
Volvo already have some for trial that are in use at a quarry, they are operating between quarry and a port, presently they operate with a "supervisor" but they are generally completely anonymous and could operate 24/7.
https://www.cbronline.com/news/autonomous-truck
Volvo already have some for trial that are in use at a quarry, they are operating between quarry and a port, presently they operate with a "supervisor" but they are generally completely anonymous and could operate 24/7.
https://www.cbronline.com/news/autonomous-truck
Car ownership isn't going away by 2025.
The taxi trade, in certain cities, may be in serious trouble by then though. Same goes for truck driving; jobs for large businesses may have vanished completely.
But driverless cars won't be widespread enough to kill car ownership by then. While there may be early signs of reduced demand for cars in city centres, there is zero chance of this spreading out to smaller towns and rural areas by 2025.
Where I live, even the busses are struggling. The taxi trade is basically dead; they spend more time waiting for a fare than they do driving. Most people own their own car and drive everywhere. It will be harder for driverless cars to gain a foothold as they will be competing directly against car ownership, rather than public transport. The focus, in the short term, won't be on areas like this. It will be on cities, where there's a high reliance on taxis and public transport.
I think 2025 is a much more likely year for widespread protests and vandalism against self-driving cars, as it starts to become clear just how many jobs are going to be destroyed by the technology. I doubt the taxi trade in cities will last beyond 2030, bar a few specialist offerings (assistance for the elderly, chauffeurs, etc).
The taxi trade, in certain cities, may be in serious trouble by then though. Same goes for truck driving; jobs for large businesses may have vanished completely.
But driverless cars won't be widespread enough to kill car ownership by then. While there may be early signs of reduced demand for cars in city centres, there is zero chance of this spreading out to smaller towns and rural areas by 2025.
Where I live, even the busses are struggling. The taxi trade is basically dead; they spend more time waiting for a fare than they do driving. Most people own their own car and drive everywhere. It will be harder for driverless cars to gain a foothold as they will be competing directly against car ownership, rather than public transport. The focus, in the short term, won't be on areas like this. It will be on cities, where there's a high reliance on taxis and public transport.
I think 2025 is a much more likely year for widespread protests and vandalism against self-driving cars, as it starts to become clear just how many jobs are going to be destroyed by the technology. I doubt the taxi trade in cities will last beyond 2030, bar a few specialist offerings (assistance for the elderly, chauffeurs, etc).
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Driverless cars probably won't take off like they think it will. A lot of people like driving or just don't want an AV. As well as want to own their own transport.
It's great spending loads on advancing some tech, but if people don't buy/use it...
It's great spending loads on advancing some tech, but if people don't buy/use it...
Trust is going to be a major thing too.
Can I see my mother-in-law getting in a Driverless car... ever? Nope
She's not very good at driving. She doesn't like driving. But she's also a luddite. And I don't think she's unique on that front, either.Driverless cars could be cheaper, more reliable, and safer. She'd still own her own car, and drive herself everywhere.
All eyes are on the taxi trade, as this is the easiest sector to consume. Uber has demonstrated that many taxi users are price-motivated. Driverless cars can, potentially, deliver the same service for far less.
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This, lets not forget a driver-less car can easily be bullied into stopping and will not move until is path is clear, this can simply be achieved by standing in front of it. No need to damage the car, I'm sure the protesters will quickly work this out, I just wouldn't want to be the passenger if it kicked off in France....
Gotta look for AV passengers with a cup of coffee in their hands and then force them to stop suddenly
I can see them getting stuck all day at busy junctions. Since theres no safe way to have them muscle in to gaps like human drivers do.
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Gotta look for AV passengers with a cup of coffee in their hands and then force them to stop suddenly
I can see them getting stuck all day at busy junctions. Since theres no safe way to have them muscle in to gaps like human drivers do.
Or the next AV car coming along the road let's it out.
Or change road signs using stickers, either to something completely different, or to something the driverless cars can't read.
The cars that read the signs will either get confused, or do the complete wrong thing.
Soldato
Where’s the electricity to charge all these EVs coming from?
Number 1 reason I want an AV? So i can drive into the city and send it off driving round in circles so I don't have to pay for parking
At 5mph to conserve battery.
5 mph would be good going around Norwich city centre
Barring a small overlap with peak demand (4pm-8pm), most EV charging takes place overnight, where demand is at its lowest and there is considerable spare generation capacity. In the short-medium term, the solution is to reduce this overlap and push as much EV charging as possible in to low demand periods. The National Grid are planning to do this through a combination of smart charging and surge pricing.
Using fairly crude numbers as an example, the average driver does 8,000 miles per year, or 22 miles per day. This represents roughly 5.5kWh of electricity. If the car is charging from 8pm to 7am, it only needs to charge at a rate of 0.5kW. 40 million EVs would need around 20GW of spare generation capacity. At night, this is very much doable. Obviously the picture is a lot more complicated than this. But it gives a rough idea of the state of play. There is no immediate supply problem, if demand can be managed.
There are also early tests of V2G, where EV batteries are used to smooth out supply by charging when there's low demand, and discharging when there's high demand. Depending on how this goes, EVs could potentially be a key component of improving grid response.
In the long term, we may need more generation capacity, depending on what happens with the number of vehicles on the road (which could fall, depending on what happens with AV) and the effectiveness of smart charging and surge pricing. But for the foreseeable future, there's no need for a sudden increase in supply.
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Soldato
Soldato
I think you'll find road signs / restrictions etc will be pre-programmed into the database it's fly by night roadworks that could be an issue !