WINTER 2018/2019 - Chat thread!

Models have all gone back to mild (with a slight cool patch) outcomes out to the end of the month but I wouldn't say for sure. It will take a lot to bring the cold to us at the moment though as it is still all locked up half way around the planet from us so even some of the traditional high pressure setups, etc. would only bring cool rather than cold conditions.

The problem with these SSW type events and related though is that they are disruptive on normal patterns (which causes the models to struggle) and tend to come and go in amplifying or weakening pulses so a few days time the outlook could be very different.
 
Background signals have been rubbish all winter, models haven't been able to get a grip on anything past t+72 really and even got short range forecasting wrong due to the variables in place with our snow lines recently.

Winter isn't over yet, last year was evidence that late snow does happen. However currently there's no data to suggest anything about a return to a cold scenario.

We will probably end up with a sub-tropical SW flow rather than a continental SE flow, which means rain and lots of it.
 
So, that's winter over and done this year, another tame one. Heard on the radio Aberdeen had a record high temp for February, 18c...:eek:

This time last year we had that heavy snow, very cold spell which hit the country.
 
TonyTurbo78 said:
So, that's winter over and done this year, another tame one. Heard on the radio Aberdeen had a record high temp for February, 18c...:eek:

This time last year we had that heavy snow, very cold spell which hit the country.
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I wouldn't call it yet - though they seem to be in a hurry on the weather forums to write off winter.

Can't see any way for the cold to get to us with the current setup but on the off chance it does the conditions are still there for it to be notable - still enough going on over the arctic I'm keeping an open mind.

Really quite disappointed by this year so far versus the potential but we ended up locked out of it.

EDIT: Not really sure what to make of the data today - the 850hPa temperature projections I think are underestimating the change going into March - 500hPa anoms are suggesting an almost inversion going into March compared to what we've had in Feb, AO looks like it will flip while NAO is quite uncertain and the 1hPa temp output goes a bit strange into early March. Some flutter in the jet but no strong signals showing up yet.
 
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polzeath for a surf this morning ,who needs California


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Rroff said:
EDIT: Not really sure what to make of the data today - the 850hPa temperature projections I think are underestimating the change going into March - 500hPa anoms are suggesting an almost inversion going into March compared to what we've had in Feb, AO looks like it will flip while NAO is quite uncertain and the 1hPa temp output goes a bit strange into early March. Some flutter in the jet but no strong signals showing up yet.
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Ummm what?? Google translate doesn't help me much :p
 
So in the end we did hit record breaking mildness.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47360952

Kind of weird in a winter that had the potency for record breaking cold but it just never seemed to be able to deliver. I'm not ready to write it off yet as some are but think most of the potential for something truly notably wintery has now passed - might still get the odd snow day though.
 
Well 20C here!, first time I've ever seen anything like that in Wales in winter, winter is somewhere else for sure. :)
 
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