When are you going fully electric?

[Simon]

petrol is likely to become a specialist commodity at some point. Petrol stations are expensive to run, licence etc, so once the volume falls out of the market they are going to either have to charge a hell of a lot more, or just give up.
Refining, distribution, literally every thing thats now cheap will become more expensive as it becomes more niche. Companies will leave the market place and fewer companies will survive by price gouging with low volumes. It ain't going to be a cheap place to operate.

In the mean time, general public will moan about these silly old polluting cars holding everyone up

Real rich people will be fine, they will probably have a tanker come round, top up the car collection.

This is quite wrong as if demand for oil did drop then refinery cost drops (energy costs are lower) and so does fuel price. Remember most oil profits go to the sovereign states who own it.

petrol is incredibly cheap really. It’s the taxes that are giving EV the benefit on running costs. Which won’t last forever

Isn’t specialist commodity an oxymoron ?

 

[GinG]

I looked at electric but PCP and battery rental just didn't make it feasible.

Ended up with a 18 plate Aygo @ £25 per month.

Until the cars become sensible monies it will take a lot to make it worth while for 6-7k per year.

 

[Nasher]

petrol is likely to become a specialist commodity at some point. Petrol stations are expensive to run, licence etc, so once the volume falls out of the market they are going to either have to charge a hell of a lot more, or just give up.
Refining, distribution, literally every thing thats now cheap will become more expensive as it becomes more niche. Companies will leave the market place and fewer companies will survive by price gouging with low volumes. It ain't going to be a cheap place to operate.

In the mean time, general public will moan about these silly old polluting cars holding everyone up

Real rich people will be fine, they will probably have a tanker come round, top up the car collection.

Things will still need petrol for a long time yet (like portable generators). Petrol stations might downsize but it will still be around.

But as above. Its taxes which are making EVs cheaper to run right now. Plus government subsidies. Once they are mainstream expect energy prices or road tax on them to rocket to fill the void.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

This is quite wrong as if demand for oil did drop then refinery cost drops (energy costs are lower) and so does fuel price. Remember most oil profits go to the sovereign states who own it.

Its simple basic economies of scale unwinding. One of the early stages will be to

petrol is incredibly cheap really. It’s the taxes that are giving EV the benefit on running costs. Which won’t last forever

Indeed, but if anything your likely to see more tax not less. Most governments are moving to a position to try to stop people using fossils. So they are hardly likely to lower taxation when it gets to a point of Ev being a viable alternative.
Tax cigarettes, tax goes up constantly, government trying to influence via taxation.
If we got a trumpesque climate denier I could see the tax reducing, but not with the sorts of government we have had recently.

Isn’t specialist commodity an oxymoron ?

Not really no. I work in food mainly but the company I work for is also a chemicals company. The term specialist commodity is widely used.
A commodity : "A commodity is a basic good used in commerce that is interchangeable with other commodities of the same type. Commodities are most often used as inputs in the production of other goods or services. The quality of a given commodity may differ slightly, but it is essentially uniform across producers." Petrol fits that definition although kinda fails on the most often part.

Specialist tends to be added when its not for general consumption (it could be restricted), or become something few use. Arguably coal would be deemed a specialist commodity now, loads of sources with no real difference, but its hardly used and as such its become a specialist item.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Things will still need petrol for a long time yet (like portable generators). Petrol stations might downsize but it will still be around.

But as above. Its taxes which are making EVs cheaper to run right now. Plus government subsidies.

It will be around, but access will become far less available. It will be no different to anything that had a massive usage and the usage dwindled over time to become a niche product.
By the time its really starting to disappear things like small generators will probably be on bio fuels. They have been working on fuel cells for some time. Even things like lighting towers (the things you see in roadworks) are now often hybrid
The big users get the fuel bunkered anyway, direct specialist delivery, red diesel, thats unlikely to change short term, nor will it impact "high street" distribution.

Petrol stations continue to close, the economics is difficult, they are in effect marketing fights with people like Tesco etc trying to take market share, when the pendulum switches and they sell far less, and its not a battle to provide the best experience for the majority who want charging whilst they shop they will start to wind down the stations. When that happens the market will shift, is that 10 years, 20 years, 30 years who knows, but it will come as the customer switches.
The government will be a significant factor in this, no point taxing petrol to hell whilst its really the only option, once its not they will push it up. The tories scrapped it, but look at the fuel escalator Labour did, nothing to stop them.

 

[Nasher]

Not sure it really works like that. Old fuels which aren't as widely used anymore aren't mega expensive (like parafin). The governement doesnt bother when demand drops so low.

 

[jpaul]

So they are hardly likely to lower taxation when it gets to a point of Ev being a viable alternative.

But as Nasher/Simon imply it will be the increase in taxation on electricity for ev's to obtain similar revenue that will be interesting; the road/infrastructure costs are still there (indeed EV's are heavier on average no ? plus potential power grid upgdrades ... the next smart meters project)
Indeed do other EV populous countries (with nuclear) have as much cheap overnight electricity as UK (renewables), or can that pricing trend reverse in the UK ?
(cars or chargers coudl track KWHrs going into EV's to facilitate taxation.)

 

[b0rn2sk8]

But as above. Its taxes which are making EVs cheaper to run right now. Plus government subsidies. Once they are mainstream expect energy prices or road tax on them to rocket to fill the void.

You realise fossil fuels get more subsidies then renewables and electric cars, quite a lot more in fact. The UK is the biggest subsidiser in Europe.

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...sil-fuel-subsidies-in-the-eu-finds-commission

With freezing fuel duty we have effectively lowered it in real terms over the last few years because it’s a fixed amount per litre.

But as Nasher/Simon imply it will be the increase in taxation on electricity for ev's to obtain similar revenue that will be interesting; the road/infrastructure costs are still there (indeed EV's are heavier on average no ? plus potential power grid upgdrades ... the next smart meters project)
Indeed do other EV populous countries (with nuclear) have as much cheap overnight electricity as UK (renewables), or can that pricing trend reverse in the UK ?
(cars or chargers coudl track KWHrs going into EV's to facilitate taxation.)

what’s stopping you just plugging it into an unmeasured outlet? Most can get away with doing almost all their charging from a 3 pin plug.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

But as Nasher/Simon imply it will be the increase in taxation on electricity for ev's to obtain similar revenue that will be interesting; the road/infrastructure costs are still there (indeed EV's are heavier on average no ? plus potential power grid upgdrades ... the next smart meters project)
Indeed do other EV populous countries (with nuclear) have as much cheap overnight electricity as UK (renewables), or can that pricing trend reverse in the UK ?
(cars or chargers coudl track KWHrs going into EV's to facilitate taxation.)

For certain the replacement for revenue currently generated from fossil fuels will need a replacement. Will that be specific energy taxation or maybe rolled into general.
Its going to be practically impossible to control this to charge higher for EVs. The guy who has solar on his roof. Look at the BIK changes, its not a taxable benefit to charge at work if the provide Ev points (like we do)

When government policy is to transition the switch they are unlikely to hamper that switch by charging the tax. Once the transition is complete thats the point to be worried

 

[jpaul]

what’s stopping you just plugging it into an unmeasured outlet?

the car/batteries can track it ... and report back to the taxman.

cars or chargers coudl track KWHrs

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

the car/batteries can track it ... and report back to the taxman.

They could, its highly unlikely though as that approach would fall foul of the same as any tax thats collected afterwards.
Its why the principle of tax at supply point is the one they always try to default to. Its why PAYE works how it does, VAT etc collected at point of sale.

If the cars were to try to communicate there would be a whole industry trying to defeat it and change it. It would be the equivalent to clocking a cars mileage.

 

[Nasher]

It will all just go on road tax. The loss in fuel tax will become EV's road tax. But they will wait until close to 2040 then ambush everyone with it.

 

[sovietspybob]

Some kind of black box GPS and you pay per mile for road tax seems a fair compromise. That'd work regardless of what fuel you use.

I do around 15k a year so i should be paying more than my inlaws who probably only do 2 or 3k as im wearing the roads out more.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

It will all just go on road tax. The loss in fuel tax will become EV's road tax. But they will wait until close to 2040 then ambush everyone with it.

It may well do, its far easier to do that, the problems are its again a tax not at source.
People try to avoid road tax now. Imagine if petrol was really cheap, but road tax was £1000 a year, same outlay as you have now, but potentially a massive amount to be "saved" if you somehow avoid paying the road tax.
Again its why they attempt to collect tax at source.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Some kind of black box GPS and you pay per mile for road tax seems a fair compromise. That'd work regardless of what fuel you use.

I do around 15k a year so i should be paying more than my inlaws who probably only do 2 or 3k as im wearing the roads out more.

Variable and per use road tax was a plan, the issues surround the how to collect it, how to make it secure etc. remain
Which is why they like to collect it on fuel, its very hard to avoid. Yes a few will run red diesel etc but fundamentally tax avoidance on fuel is very very low.

 

[Nasher]

Some kind of black box GPS and you pay per mile for road tax seems a fair compromise. That'd work regardless of what fuel you use.

I do around 15k a year so i should be paying more than my inlaws who probably only do 2 or 3k as im wearing the roads out more.

To easy to cheat when its something attached to the car. You could just disconnect the tracker and no one would know.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

To easy to cheat when its something attached to the car. You could just disconnect the tracker and no one would know.

Unless its so integrated into the running that the car cannot function without it. Its far harder to just unplug it then eg the car could require a signal every so often which would allow it to be tracked, which it has to respond to, which can be correlated etc
Nothing is impossible to do though with enough time and effort though, eg the car lies about where it is, but adjusts the map position to match the journey being made, but maybe pretending to be out in the sticks when its really in a city centre

What would be more of a risk would be some kind of hack. Imagine some hackers just bringing down the whole tracking network.
its some of the same issues we face across society as we rely on tech more and more the disruption from a successful hack will get worse and worse.

 

[jpaul]

(e: google echo chamber) Seems some USA states have already imposed larger EV taxes than ICE (Texas is thinking)
https://www.consumerreports.org/hyb...tting-electric-vehicle-owners-with-high-fees/

A new Consumer Reports analysis shows that of the 26 states that currently impose EV fees, 11 charge more than the amount owners of similar gas-powered cars pay in gas taxes, and three charge more than twice the amount. And the trend is potentially for more EV fees: Among the 12 states considering proposals, 10 would have fees greater than what a driver on average would pay in gas taxes. Seven of those states would ratchet up the fees over time to twice the amount.

 

[Nasher]

Unless its so integrated into the running that the car cannot function without it. Its far harder to just unplug it then eg the car could require a signal every so often which would allow it to be tracked, which it has to respond to, which can be correlated etc
Nothing is impossible to do though with enough time and effort though, eg the car lies about where it is, but adjusts the map position to match the journey being made, but maybe pretending to be out in the sticks when its really in a city centre

What would be more of a risk would be some kind of hack. Imagine some hackers just bringing down the whole tracking network.
its some of the same issues we face across society as we rely on tech more and more the disruption from a successful hack will get worse and worse.

Doesnt matter how integrated they make it, it can still be hacked\disabled. Or you could simply wrap the gps receiver in tin foil.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

You also need to look at the costs of implementation. Taking the fuel is easy and cheap to implement. A few providers do all the hard work for you, pay it to the government and it’s easy to audit.

Changing that to collecting money from millions of people (33m cars?) is not something to be taken lightly. Not something that could be implemented easily.