Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Yucca · 12 Jun 2020 at 00:22

Skeptic said:
I rate your buys pretty highly. Many of them are solid long term performers and, while they will go down with the broader market, will prevail over the longer course. I think the best mantra is just to strap in (if financially viable) because we are really in unique territory. Not in the ‘this time it’s different’ sense, but in the ‘what will be left when the dust settles’ sense. Unfortunately the USA decision to ‘open up’ is fine in principle, but a virus and its consequences doesn’t bow to the whim of the tango man.

When this is all dealt with, say 6-12 months, what will the world look like? Will Greggs still be killing it? Will the world need copper? Homes? TV? Breakdown cover? Pubs?

There will always be somebody who timed it better, but don’t let ‘perfect’ be the enemy of ‘good’. If you are happy with your entry price, then that’s that, don’t give it another thought! If it’s cheaper tomorrow, so what? It could have been more expensive tomorrow and then you’d have felt that you should have bought more!

PS as some buys echo mine we will either celebrate or commiserate together!

Iv not changed my mind on what to hold. Just what price to hold it at.

If further large drops are likely in the coming days, wouldn’t it be a good idea to sell up and buy back in when things stabilise?

Yucca · 12 Jun 2020 at 00:28

From my very limited experiance... US market is usually much more optimistic than UK.

And from what iv seen recently the UK markets often follow the US movements. Certainly on the way down. On the way up too, just not as quickly with UK stocks (due to my first point above).

I predict a big UK fall tomorrow...

uzi9mm · 12 Jun 2020 at 01:44

The problem with the likes of IAG is how far will it fall? If you look at Lloyds it was over 1.00, now seems to struggle past 0.60p, even low at the moment.

I bailed out on IAG as I feel it can go really low to maybe about 1.50, but obviously this is all new times with Covid, recession and brexit deal. Anything is possible but need to buy near the bottom.

Fusion · 12 Jun 2020 at 06:16

Yucca said:
If further large drops are likely in the coming days, wouldn’t it be a good idea to sell up and buy back in when things stabilise?

Some people were saying this last time round. Problem is, we don’t know if large drops are likely. You could easily sell, crystallise losses, then miss a lower entry point (if there even is one) later on.

I generally (and it is a generalisation, not a rule) find that the more panic, uncertainty and hysteria, the better the buying opportunity. As soon as there is stability and hope, things have a tendency to shoot up rapidly. We had a day earlier this year where some stocks rose over 15% in a day.

inferno · 12 Jun 2020 at 08:46

During this recent turmoil its been really tempting to trade individual companies but I'm trying not to. Slow and steady wins the race, keep investing in the ETFs and slowly your wealth will build. Well that's my viewpoint anyway.

Yucca · 12 Jun 2020 at 09:08

inferno said:
During this recent turmoil its been really tempting to trade individual companies but I'm trying not to. Slow and steady wins the race, keep investing in the ETFs and slowly your wealth will build. Well that's my viewpoint anyway.

Which ETF are you in?

Yucca · 12 Jun 2020 at 09:09

Bit all over the place this morning.... some down loads (IAG), some flat (Shell, BP) and some up slightly, Persimmon.

IAG - big drop. Whilst my wizzair holds.

Real mix.

Russinating · 12 Jun 2020 at 09:26

Skeptic said:
There will always be somebody who timed it better, but don’t let ‘perfect’ be the enemy of ‘good’.

As is always quoted here, time in the market is better than timing in the market.

Funds get you used to that as well, since orders often execute 24 working hours later.

teknokid · 12 Jun 2020 at 09:47

Yucca said:
Bit all over the place this morning.... some down loads (IAG), some flat (Shell, BP) and some up slightly, Persimmon.

IAG - big drop. Whilst my wizzair holds.

Real mix.

Similar for me - Aston Martin dipped a load at opening, but is now recovering - likewise with oil. Some very fast moves going on.

tlrBeta · 12 Jun 2020 at 09:50

Yucca said:
Bit all over the place this morning.... some down loads (IAG), some flat (Shell, BP) and some up slightly, Persimmon.

IAG - big drop. Whilst my wizzair holds.

Real mix.

Clearly we are all trading for different purposes. For me, right now its a good recovery vs the losses of the last few days.

That said, why the rise on airlines? People see airlines as good long term? The government have made more announcements on 2 week return quarantine? News on air bridges?

Clearly some people in the know or day traders running riot. Even the banks are creeping up again...does the news this morning mean nothing? Are we still banking on the V recovery?

Yucca · 12 Jun 2020 at 10:07

tlrBeta said:
Clearly we are all trading for different purposes. For me, right now its a good recovery vs the losses of the last few days.

That said, why the rise on airlines? People see airlines as good long term? The government have made more announcements on 2 week return quarantine? News on air bridges?

Clearly some people in the know or day traders running riot. Even the banks are creeping up again...does the news this morning mean nothing? Are we still banking on the V recovery?

Just to clarify, I was talking about whats going on in the market. Not my holdings.

Russinating · 12 Jun 2020 at 10:31

Bought in on Lloyds and HSBC, doubled down on Whitbread. Tempted by Greggs just to join the party but not tempted enough

.

Yucca · 12 Jun 2020 at 10:43

Russinating said:
Bought in on Lloyds and HSBC, doubled down on Whitbread. Tempted by Greggs just to join the party but not tempted enough .

I just picked up HSBC, 10% of my total portfolio. Rightly or wrongly stockopedia ranks for HSBC are higher than Lloyds and Barclays which is why iv chosen HSBC. They are at an all time low today so I think they are 'cheap'. I know a lot of their business revolves around Asia/China. Thats ok with me. I expect China to do better than US long term. And any HK issues will get resolved sooner or later (Chinese will crack down soon enough and the west cant do jack about it).

Why did you buy Lloyds? And what are your thoughts on Whitbread that made you double? Hospitality is in a very bad way at the moment and likly to stay that way for a long time... So why Whitbread over Greggs?

Russinating · 12 Jun 2020 at 10:59

Yucca said:
I just picked up HSBC, 10% of my total portfolio. Rightly or wrongly stockopedia ranks for HSBC are higher than Lloyds and Barclays which is why iv chosen HSBC. They are at an all time low today so I think they are 'cheap'. I know a lot of their business revolves around Asia/China. Thats ok with me. I expect China to do better than US long term. And any HK issues will get resolved sooner or later (Chinese will crack down soon enough and the west cant do jack about it).

Why did you buy Lloyds? And what are your thoughts on Whitbread that made you double? Hospitality is in a very bad way at the moment and likly to stay that way for a long time... So why Whitbread over Greggs?

I'm predominantly looking at stocks that are still 40%+ down on 6 months and for whatever variety of reasons haven't seen the random upsurge of others. By contrast, stocks like William Hill are only 16% down on 6M, 5% down on 1Y, and up 383% since March's lowest, which given until 2 weeks ago there was literally nothing to bet on is crazy.

Lloyds for the same reason as HSBC; I think it's cheap. I'm a customer and they've maintained good customer service during the period and have a strong domestic brand. I can't claim to know nearly enough about the banking sector or the impact COVID's had, it's just a gut feeling.

Whitbread I mentioned a few pages back. Has risen since it's lowest in March but not much (in comparison to other stocks), basically still flatlining @ 55% down from end of Feb. They've raised a share issue, particularly to invest in Germany (growing from 1 to 30 hotels), and I can see domestic budget travel being a strong pull for many in the next 6-12 months, particularly over the winter, plus an increase in corporate travel as we get back to normality. I bought at the wrong time (last week) but I'm still confident about my prior thoughts and this dip is just in-line with the whole market rather than their individual forecast.

Reason for not Greggs is that I tend to float towards stocks that I'm either a customer of, have been, or can relate to. It helps me understand their business model, brand and the market a bit better, and means I keep up-to-date with what they're doing just through my own personal interactions with them rather than having to research specifically. I bought Tesla shares a week after I ordered a Tesla. I haven't been to a Greggs in maybe 2 years. Simple as that really!

Of course, all my own thoughts, and will likely be proven wrong...

EddScott · 12 Jun 2020 at 11:56

Skeptic said:
I don’t think I am a seasoned investor by any means, but I would say that you have a really good foundation for future investment decisions based on this experience.

Just popping in to say thank you for the pep talk

Russinating said:
I'm either a customer of, have been, or can relate to.

I really like Games Workshop. Having been a customer on and off for 30 years I have a fairly decent understanding of what they are about. Seems relatively stable since I've been watching it.

AKAK · 12 Jun 2020 at 12:10

Games workshop is the top holding of the CFP Buffettology fund if that interests you - I think because of the strength of the brand.

booyaka · 12 Jun 2020 at 12:12

For anyone interested Investor Chronicle did their top 50 EFT's in this weeks edition.

Not a recommendation - merely posted for information.

IC Top 50 ETFs 2020
ETF Inception date
■ CORE
UK equities (4)
iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (ISF) 27/04/2000
Lyxor Core Morningstar UK NT (DR) UCITS ETF (LCUK) 27/02/2018
SPDR FTSE UK All Share UCITS ETF (FTAL) 28/02/2012
New: L&G UK Equity UCITS ETF (LGUK) 13/11/2018
US equities (3)
iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF (CSP1) 19/05/2010
Xtrackers S&P 500 UCITS ETF GBP Hedged (XDPG) 27/02/2015
New: Invesco S&P 500 ESG UCITS ETF (SPEP) 10/03/2020
Global equities (3)
HSBC MSCI World UCITS ETF (HMWO) 08/12/2010
iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF GBP Hedged (IWDG) 22/05/2017
New: iShares MSCI World ESG Screened UCITS ETF (SAWD) 19/10/2018
Japan equities (2)
iShares Core MSCI Japan IMI UCITS ETF (SJPA) 25/09/2009
New: Lyxor Core MSCI Japan UCITS ETF GBP Hedged (LCJG) 18/10/2018
New: L&G Japan Equity UCITS ETF (LGJG) 13/11/2018
Europe equities (2)
Vanguard FTSE Developed Europe ex-UK UCITS ETF (VERX) 30/09/2014
iShares MSCI EMU UCITS ETF GBP Hedged (CEUG) 12/01/2010
New: L&G Europe ex UK Equity UCITS ETF (LGEU) 13/11/2018
Asia Pacific Ex Japan Equities (1)
iShares Core MSCI Pacific ex-Japan UCITS ETF (CPJ1) 12/01/2010
Emerging market equities (2)
iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS ETF (EMIM) 30/05/2014
New: iShares MSCI EM IMI ESG Screened UCITS ETF (SAEM) 19/10/2018
Bonds (4)
Lyxor FTSE Actuaries UK Gilts UCITS ETF (GILS) 13/10/2016
New: iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF (INXG) 01/12/2006
iShares Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF GBP Hedged (AGBP) 21/11/2017
iShares Core £ Corporate Bond UCITS ETF (SLXX) 29/03/2004
■ SATELLITE
UK equities (2)
Vanguard FTSE 250 UCITS ETF (VMID) 30/09/2014
New: SPDR S&P UK Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF (UKDV) 28/02/2012
US equities (4)
iShares S&P SmallCap 600 UCITS ETF (ISP6) 09/05/2008
Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF (EQQQ) 03/12/2002
iShares Edge S&P 500 Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF (MVUS) 30/11/2012
New: Fidelity US Quality Income UCITS ETF (FUSD) 27/03/2017
Global equities (4)
iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF (WLDS) 27/03/2018
iShares Edge MSCI World Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF (MINV) 30/11/2012
Vanguard Global Value Factor UCITS ETF (VVAL) 09/12/2015
New: Fidelity Global Quality Income UCITS ETF (FGQI) 27/03/2017
Japanese equities (1)
iShares MSCI Japan Small Cap UCITS ETF (ISJP) 09/05/2008
European equities (2)
iShares Edge MSCI Europe Value Factor UCITS ETF (IEFV) 16/01/2015
New: Fidelity Europe Quality Income UCITS ETF (FEUI) 09/09/2019
Asia Pacific ex Japan equities (1)
SPDR S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF (PADV) 14/05/2013
Emerging market equities (3)
iShares Edge MSCI Emerging Markets Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF (EMV) 30/11/2012
SPDR MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap UCITS ETF (EMSM) 13/05/2011
Xtrackers Harvest CSI300 UCITS ETF (RQFI)
Bonds (3)
Invesco US Treasury Bond 7-10 Year UCITS ETF GBP Hedged (TRXS) 14/01/2019
iShares Fallen Angels High Yield Corp Bond UCITS ETF (RISE) 21/06/2016
New: iShares JPMorgan $ EM Bond UCITS ETF (EHMG) 20/03/2018
■ NICHE
Commodities and precious metals (3)
Invesco Bloomberg Commodity UCITS ETF (CMOD) 10/01/2017
Invesco Physical Gold ETC (SGLD) 24/06/2009
Invesco Physical Silver P-ETC (SSLV) 13/04/2011
Thematic (4)
iShares Automation & Robotics UCITS ETF (RBTX) 08/09/2016
iShares Ageing Population UCITS ETF (AGES) 08/09/2016
iShares Global Clean Energy UCITS ETF (INRG) 06/07/2007
iShares Digitalisation UCITS ETF (DGIT) 08/09/2016

Yucca · 12 Jun 2020 at 12:23

EddScott said:
I really like Games Workshop. Having been a customer on and off for 30 years I have a fairly decent understanding of what they are about. Seems relatively stable since I've been watching it.

AKAK said:
Games workshop is the top holding of the CFP Buffettology fund if that interests you - I think because of the strength of the brand.

I too like Games workshop. And have played 40k as a kid. BUT they are now at an all time high and a lot of the hobby revolves around playing with others (from other households) in stores and in other places. Not sure sales will be good in the coming months. Staff/stores will have to continue to pay rent. And if there is a recession/huge job losses then many will be less inclinded to buy expensive models. And wow, they are expensive!

Also many fans are kids/teenagers where mum and dad pay for their models. Ok when times are good. When mummys lost her job and daddys worried about paying the bills.... not so good.

Russinating · 12 Jun 2020 at 12:30

Yucca said:
I too like Games workshop. And have played 40k as a kid. BUT they are now at an all time high and a lot of the hobby revolves around playing with others (from other households) in stores and in other places. Not sure sales will be good in the coming months. Staff/stores will have to continue to pay rent. And if there is a recession/huge job losses then many will be less inclinded to buy expensive models. And wow, they are expensive!

Also many fans are kids/teenagers where mum and dad pay for their models. Ok when times are good. When mummys lost her job and daddys worried about paying the bills.... not so good.

Yeah I'd agree with this. I too also used to play when I was ~14, so many moons ago. A couple of old friends still dabble though. You can play socially distanced, though, and I'm sure it's been a good lockdown hobby for many, with half of it (if not more) being the building and painting rather than playing.

But PE ratio is 38.5 atm, market cap of £2.55bn, way overpriced imo. They rely heavily on the high street to get new customers and that in itself is dying, particularly for their demographic.

Yucca · 12 Jun 2020 at 12:34

Russinating said:
I'm predominantly looking at stocks that are still 40%+ down on 6 months and for whatever variety of reasons haven't seen the random upsurge of others.

Lloyds for the same reason as HSBC; I think it's cheap. I'm a customer and they've maintained good customer service during the period and have a strong domestic brand. I can't claim to know nearly enough about the banking sector or the impact COVID's had, it's just a gut feeling.

Whitbread I mentioned a few pages back. Has risen since it's lowest in March but not much (in comparison to other stocks), basically still flatlining @ 55% down from end of Feb. They've raised a share issue, particularly to invest in Germany (growing from 1 to 30 hotels), and I can see domestic budget travel being a strong pull for many in the next 6-12 months, particularly over the winter, plus an increase in corporate travel as we get back to normality.

Agree with looking for stocks that are still down. Not easy though as so many have gone up. And most that are still down are down due to good reason ie Airlines/Cruises/Pubs.

Lloyds - Fair enough. Lloyds would be my second choice too after HSBC.

Whitbread: I (think) I have a good understanding of their business as iv worked in hospitality for many years at management level. Just playing devils advocate here: Costa was their biggest growth brand which they have sold. Domestic budget travel being a strong pull - Why? You mean more UK based holidays and hotel use? I assume you are talking about Premier Inn use here? I wouldnt call them budget... Id say middle of the road. And all hotels/restaurants will be slashing prices/doing silly deals to get bums on seats. So margins will be even smaller than normal. Plus they are still competing againt Air bnb. And with hotels.com, booking.com and the like its much easlier now for customers to find better/cheaper hotels than just go to the trusted brand website like years ago. None of that has changed with Covid. Their other brands: brewers fayre & beefeater will have the same serious problems JDW will have.

I dont think corporate travel will go back to normal any time soon. If at all. Businesses will be looking at cutting costs and this is an obvious/easy one to cut.

Welcome your further thoughts.