Effects of electric cars on automotive industry

Fuel stations will be an interesting one to watch. The small stations on the routes in/out of town realistically have no future if EVs catch on. Nor do supermarket fuel stations (they'll use the main car park for EV charging). There's potential for large out-of-town sites to survive (i.e. the ones in the middle of nowhere on a-roads) as specialist EV recharging stops, but I think the bulk of the ~6,500 fuel stations in the UK are stuffed if EV catches on.

Once they start shutting, I wonder if that could wind up having a snowball effect?
 
McPhee said:
Fuel stations will be an interesting one to watch. The small stations on the routes in/out of town realistically have no future if EVs catch on. Nor do supermarket fuel stations (they'll use the main car park for EV charging). There's potential for large out-of-town sites to survive (i.e. the ones in the middle of nowhere on a-roads) as specialist EV recharging stops, but I think the bulk of the ~6,500 fuel stations in the UK are stuffed if EV catches on.

Once they start shutting, I wonder if that could wind up having a snowball effect?
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Petrol will be around for a very long time yet. There are still loads of old petrol and diesel cars on the road and the ones around now until 2035 will probably survive even longer.

Also the ban does not include motorbikes. I suspect there will be a lot more people getting bike licences, especially in urban areas :)
 
Range anxiety when driving a petrol will become a thing.

People with bike licences are more likely to ride scooters than motorbikes imo.

Scooters are perfect for electrification as they cover limited distances and the batteries can be swapped out like gogoro.
 
There's already a lot less filling stations than there were even a decade or so ago. Watching them become less and less economical, as more and more relatively high-mileage drivers switch to EV will be fascinating to see. It's no about the number of drivers still driving ICE, it's about the number of litres supplied. Even if 50% of vehicles are still ICE, they may only account for maybe 10%-20% of fuel purchased. Thinking about it this way suggests the decline would be more rapid than first thought.

I think Jamoor is right - range anxiety for ICE will slowly but surely become more of 'a thing'.

Some filling stations will convert to EV charging hubs, with associated facilities (decent cafe, toilets, perhaps other forms of entertainment - hopefully of better quality than most existing motorway services....).

The same factors apply to bikes as well. Commuter bikes will switch before weekend bikes. The same fuel usage as cars will apply here too.

Edit: found some data on the decline in filling stations, and it's worse than I thought:

The proliferation of petrol filling stations across the UK peaked at around 40,000 sites in the 1950s. Since then, they faced a steady decline.

In 2000 the count fell to 13,107 due to consolidation by oil companies, and today there are just 8,400.
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https://eandt.theiet.org/content/ar...of petrol filling,today there are just 8,400.
 
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Nasher said:
Petrol will be around for a very long time yet. There are still loads of old petrol and diesel cars on the road and the ones around now until 2035 will probably survive even longer.

Also the ban does not include motorbikes. I suspect there will be a lot more people getting bike licences, especially in urban areas :)
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I wasn't suggesting otherwise. But reduced trade will see some shut their doors. The more trade drops, the more stations will shut. 20 years from now, petrol will still be available. But you may have to drive across town to get it.
 
Nasher said:
Buy you can always carry spare fuel without taking up much space.
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So, enough to offset the smaller fuel tanks in most modern cars?

Regardless, I dont consider that sensible advice to actually carry out for the vast majority of people.
 
Joe T said:
So, enough to offset the smaller fuel tanks in most modern cars?

Regardless, I dont consider that sensible advice to actually carry out for the vast majority of people.
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Yep, driving around with 20L of fuel in your boot isn't a thing.
 
Joe T said:
There's already a lot less filling stations than there were even a decade or so ago. Watching them become less and less economical, as more and more relatively high-mileage drivers switch to EV will be fascinating to see. It's no about the number of drivers still driving ICE, it's about the number of litres supplied. Even if 50% of vehicles are still ICE, they may only account for maybe 10%-20% of fuel purchased. Thinking about it this way suggests the decline would be more rapid than first thought.

I think Jamoor is right - range anxiety for ICE will slowly but surely become more of 'a thing'.

Some filling stations will convert to EV charging hubs, with associated facilities (decent cafe, toilets, perhaps other forms of entertainment - hopefully of better quality than most existing motorway services....).

The same factors apply to bikes as well. Commuter bikes will switch before weekend bikes. The same fuel usage as cars will apply here too.

Edit: found some data on the decline in filling stations, and it's worse than I thought:


https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2020/03/the-decline-of-the-petrol-station/#:~:text=The proliferation of petrol filling,today there are just 8,400.
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I think supermarkets opening filling stations are probably to blame too for the decline.
 
Supermarkets undercut the small stations massively. You rarely see any of the small ones with only a couple of pumps in villages now. When you do they are mega expensive :/
 
jamoor said:
I think supermarkets opening filling stations are probably to blame too for the decline.
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Supermarkets will be at the forefront of killing more of them when they all start sticking destination/rapid chargers for EVs in their car parks for people to use while shopping, Tesco/Morrisons/Lidl etc are already on the case with this.
 
I'm sure others will have said similar.

Even modern cars with combustion engines have a huge amount of electronics that regularly go wrong.

There's also the issue that as the cars are having more specialist electronics in them, it means that there's less that the DIY mechanic can do, and more requirement for a specialist mechanic.
 
on the pathway to FSD and catchup tv
yesterdays government document has some interesting driver monitoring proposals, for enabling hands off the wheel,
https://www.gov.uk/government/consu...ping-system-on-gb-motorways-call-for-evidence

Driver availability recognition system 2.11 ALKS is required to have a ‘driver availability recognition system’ that detects if the driver is present in a driving position with their safety belt fastened and is available to take over the driving task. If the driver is detected not to be in the seat for more than 1 second or if their safety belt is unbuckled, the system will issue a transition demand. 2.12 The system must monitor the driver to detect if they are available and in a position to respond to a transition demand. Driver availability must be determined by at least two criteria that are checked at least every 30 seconds. Examples of criteria include: • Input to driver-exclusive vehicle controls; • Eye blinking; • Eye closure; • Conscious head or body movements

...
2.15 Measures used to protect against unintentional steering inputs are varied according to driver attentiveness. The driver is deemed to be attentive if at least one of the following criteria is met: • Driver gaze direction is confirmed as primarily looking at the road ahead; • Driver gaze direction is confirmed as looking at the rear-view mirrors; • Driver head movement is confirmed as primarily directed towards the driving task; • Alternative criteria declared by the manufacturer have been met. A manufacturer may declare alternative criteria for determining driver attentiveness provided this is supported by evidence.
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I hadn't heard that manufactuers, yet, had any such sensing in production cars, to make supporting this, a software update,
probably enough computing power in a model3, but other cars might need that too.
 
Plenty of suppliers are working on driver facing cameras to monitor eye movement and head nod.

several already have ways to detect driver drowsiness by comparing steering wheel input to the stereo cameras tracking the road lines for lane discipline on the motorway. I’ve had a few “take a break” warnings pop up in mine.
 
jpaul said:
on the pathway to FSD and catchup tv
yesterdays government document has some interesting driver monitoring proposals, for enabling hands off the wheel,
https://www.gov.uk/government/consu...ping-system-on-gb-motorways-call-for-evidence



I hadn't heard that manufactuers, yet, had any such sensing in production cars, to make supporting this, a software update,
probably enough computing power in a model3, but other cars might need that too.
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Cadillac super cruise is exactly this.
 
jpaul said:
on the pathway to FSD and catchup tv
yesterdays government document has some interesting driver monitoring proposals, for enabling hands off the wheel,
https://www.gov.uk/government/consu...ping-system-on-gb-motorways-call-for-evidence



I hadn't heard that manufactuers, yet, had any such sensing in production cars, to make supporting this, a software update,
probably enough computing power in a model3, but other cars might need that too.
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The Model 3 already has a camera near the rear view mirror though I don't think it's used at the moment.
 
Neil777 said:
I don't think it's used at the moment.
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the new government doc had suggested one use
Whilst an ALKS-capable vehicle will not be able to pull over, it may be able to issue a transition demand to the driver. If listed under AEVA (as an automated vehicle), the driver would not be responsible for responding to the signalling of the police vehicle, only to a transition demand. However, there is no explicit requirement in the ALKS Regulation for the vehicle to possess rear-facing sensors. The vehicle may therefore struggle to 'know' to make a transition demand if it is being requested to stop by the police.
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...sorry I didn't see you, officer, I was watching netflix.
 
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