Soldato
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Bit of a shame we cant update post 1 mcast123 has been seen for a long while so the usefull info is one location
Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
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Soldato
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- 25 Nov 2007
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x3 and x5 leveraged etfs will cause you to lose money in swings on the downside which may not be that large.
So for example, stock is $10, goes to $9, then back to $10.
So if you invest in the stock you'd go from $100 to $90, then back to $100
If you are on 5x leveraged etf, you'd go from $100 to $50, then to $75, and are now at a 25% loss even though the share price is the same.
Ha yes there is a lot to be said about just not having to think about it.
In the good times it's great. But falls can be so quick. Its easy to lose if you aren't on top of stop losses.
Probably vanguard all-world ETF. If it drops then the whole world has dropped anyway. It also gets reviewed every quarter.
I have most of my money in there as I don't have to stress about it.
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I finally convinced my wife to check in to her US pension and updater our finance spreadsheet.
The last time she did this there was just over $100K at the end of 2018. Last week it was just under $400K. All she was tick the box "Low risk, Retire 2045" when she had started working in the US. From 2019 there wasn't a single deposit, the growth was purely the underling equities. The US pension provider used a standard Vanguard ETF that is mostly S&P 500 with allocations for small and mid-caps and foreign developed markets, + 10% treasuries.
Without ever logging in during Covid or the 2022 crashes, or getting scared in the current AI "bubble". Being as passive as you can get, yielded great returns with zero stress and minimal risk.
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Soldato
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- 24 Sep 2007
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Might not have remembered this right, but listening to Motley Fool podcast and they said S&P currently trading at a P/E of 25. Traditionally a P/E of 20 is high, and meant market likely to have a 20% correction.
What is true is that the market is highly valued at the moment. So you have to decide whether it's worth getting in, or waiting for a correction. However, sitting on the sidelines too long can also be costly. Or just forget about it and make regular buys.
What is true is that the market is highly valued at the moment. So you have to decide whether it's worth getting in, or waiting for a correction. However, sitting on the sidelines too long can also be costly. Or just forget about it and make regular buys.
This
Time in the markets is better than timing the markets.
Just fire and forget on a monthly basis.
Yeah that makes sense, but there’s way more money chasing the same limited pool of big-name stocks now. With zero-fee trading and everyone able to invest a tenner, higher P/Es are inevitable — the market’s just not comparable to 5 or 10 years ago.
20-35% of daily trade volume in US markets is apparently retail traders now.
U.S. households to keep buying stocks this year, Goldman Sachs says
Investing.com -- U.S. households are expected to remain major buyers of equities in 2025, according to a note from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), which estimates they will purchase $425 billion in stocks this year, second only to corporates at $675 billion.
uk.finance.yahoo.com
and thats just US households
More small investors → more demand → higher prices → higher P/Es.
It’s basically a Ponzi scheme in practice — new investors keep piling money in, pushing up prices for the old ones, until the market finally finds an equilibrium.
old investors money on the table, new investors join the club now the barrier is lower, they place the money on the table, and get a "share certificate" they then sit watching the table as more money is placed, people are waiting deciding when to redeem their "share certificate for the table"
once a few people start taking the PE of the table will drop fast and people will be less hesitant to place money on the table, people will say a bubble has burst.
but with enough new investors joining the table the PE will keep increasing and no one will want to take their money back.
The casino owners — BlackRock, Vanguard, etc. — don’t cheat the system illegally, but their algos and trading strategies subtly direct flows so part of the pile effectively ends up in their hands
a transfer of wealth from retail to institution via algo trading.
chatgpt and grok both agree the only flaw in my argument is mentioning ponzi scheme but they say that based on regulations and stocks having fundamentals even if people arent investing based on fundamentals but because they think the stock will just keep going up.
IMO anyone sitting out of the market right now is crazy because this could go on for years, but maybe not when the cost of living is increasing everywhere and wages are getting squeezed.
but this will probably be seen in a few decades time as the "chance in a life time to make some money" it could be the boomers all buying houses and getting rich moment.
how often do potentially billions of people suddenly just get access to the stock market for free?
just think how many people on here already paid of their mortgage due to this unprecedented event... and if they were still holding they coulda paid it off multiple times now.
I'm not a psychic but I'd expect this to continue for quite a long time.
Stock markets the new lottery/scratch card for poor people too, except your ticket never expires, its become one of the last ways you can get out of the minimum wage gig economy trap.
you dont need to research a stock to see people are going to put money in it, its almost common sense now retail money enters the market, you can guess where they will invest
Youth sees tech as strong and reliable, boomers see it as risky and dotcom PTSD hits hard, even as boomers die off and their money potentially leaves the market it probably won;t impact the new money stocks anyway
I could be wrong don’t invest more than you can afford to lose, and definitely don’t borrow money for this..
but logically I don't think there's really any flaw to this view point.
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You've made the fatal failure of using logic to assess markets which inherently defy logic. It's normally the retail investor who ends up "bag holding" after buying at the top of the market (FOMO effect) and then panic and sell at the bottom. All stocks are bad, just some are sometimes less bad. That said, My cautiously positioned portfolio is up 12% this year which I 'm very pleased about as someone who is recently retired.
Soldato
- Joined
- 24 Sep 2007
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For anyone following the Beyond Meat BYND short squeeze story, this chap is saying that a potential gamma squeeze failed to materialise on Friday:
Things still going well , i see numbers now nut real money , my plan is go big or go home ,you see i am getting on a bit but i still have a pulse. potential isa limits are a concern though and if it goes wrong this so called government love giving out benefits 
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Associate
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- 10 Jan 2005
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- 535
I don’t have the balls to fully go big on one stock. In fact I’m trying opposite just pulling out small amounts daily profit on lots and lots of small positions. Always be selling something.Things still going well , i see numbers now nut real money , my plan is go big or go home ,you see i am getting on a bit but i still have a pulse. potential isa limits are a concern though and if it goes wrong this so called government love giving out benefits
My plan was to try to earn 25% annually on initial sum invested and worked out daily figure profit needed to hit that. If I missed daily profit ALWAYS tried to hit weekly needed.
5 months in I’m on course for 50% APR. Missed a few day targets, never a weekly though.
I’m long term holding 8 stocks for half portfolio value and other half have around 130 stocks ranging from £100 to £600 invested (DCA started with £100 start buy at least). These are my “farming stocks” and will take minimum 10% profit to try to hit my daily profit needed. Then I will try to frequently sell/buy on any large moves either way. £600 max cash invested for any of my “farmer” stocks.
If you can get to a point on the stocks where you have removed principal cash, I try to let it run.
This is a double edge sword. For example MVST, Quantumscape have turned from farming to hold and doing well. BYND I got massively greedy as although I lost £600 profit on drop I didn’t really care, which is worrying. I already had my initial cash out and was letting it run
Soldato
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- 24 Sep 2007
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Things still going well , i see numbers now nut real money , my plan is go big or go home ,you see i am getting on a bit but i still have a pulse. potential isa limits are a concern though and if it goes wrong this so called government love giving out benefits
My take:
People that go big tend to have to go home. If you are taking too much risk, sooner or later it will turn against you, no-one is immune.
If you have made some decent money it is a bit silly not to put some risk management in place, such as taking a large % of profits and putting them in to lower risk stocks that pay a good dividend, or taking out some cash and waiting for a stock market downturn.
It's great that you've done well, but in my view stockmarket performance has been fuelled by lax Fed monetary policy, and this is not that far away from having a major hiccough, which will then have a big impact on the stockmarket.
Soldato
- Joined
- 24 Sep 2007
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In general, let the winners run where you feel prospects are good, and cut the losers.
Associate
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- 10 Jan 2005
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ASST could be another wild ride today
My worst position last year was minus 8.6 k , I have a few more stocks than my favourite one , just bought some beyond again this morning, not emotional about this one and have a small buffer already, seems some support around 2 dollars?
Every man has his price though I may bail if I don't keep my emotions in check ( dvlt) but I here analyst targets from $7 To $12 obviously dillition could effect this if they burn too much cash
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Soldato
- Joined
- 24 Sep 2007
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I won't be buying any more Beyond Meat now, I will just let the small fun holding I have sit and pray for a short squeeze.
I won't consider buying any more unless it gets back down to pre-squeeze rumour levels, i.e. around $0.53.
I won't consider buying any more unless it gets back down to pre-squeeze rumour levels, i.e. around $0.53.