Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)

[SpeedFreak]

Again, you gambled and got lucky. How are you not understanding this?

As I stated, long term outcome is the most important factor, not individual results. While the bookies have an edge, at 7/1 I estimate the true odds to be 8/1 (I work on 15% premium). The odds on me not winning after 10 consecutive bets at 8/1 are 25%.

Simply, I am confident that in 10 bets I will generate at least a £260 profit long term. Yes, most matched bets guarantee profits of about £32 so concede I am giving up certain value. But I enjoy the fun and try to bet on things I can research and see if there is further value to be realised.

 

[AHarvey]

yesbets signed up, betfair signed up, coral signed up, initial bet done on the footie tonight, lets see how it goes.

I couldn't find the webpage in the betfair video though unless I clicked the link, although doing it with a 4 year old bothering you isn't the easiest

 

[Skillmister]

3 horse racing refunds today. £25 Coral beaten by a length, £25 Sky 2nd place and £50 Bet365 winner @ 5.0+

£65 profit after QLs

 

[Simon]

As I stated, long term outcome is the most important factor, not individual results. While the bookies have an edge, at 7/1 I estimate the true odds to be 8/1 (I work on 15% premium). The odds on me not winning after 10 consecutive bets at 8/1 are 25%.

Simply, I am confident that in 10 bets I will generate at least a £260 profit long term. Yes, most matched bets guarantee profits of about £32 so concede I am giving up certain value. But I enjoy the fun and try to bet on things I can research and see if there is further value to be realised.

Exactly. Matched betting blog uses many offers which can lose a £1 or 2 but winnings are decent. Eg 25/1 on a bet that's more like 8/1.

In this case the expected variance in positive over time. Just like tossing a coin and getting 11p on heads and lose 10p on tails. Overtime choosing heads would result in a positive variance.

There is nothing wrong with this. Indeed many of the horse extra place offers rely on hoping for a 5th place. Just like MBS is hoping for a 2nd place ! You lose money of your horse doesn't come second.

 

[Simon]

3 horse racing refunds today. £25 Coral beaten by a length, £25 Sky 2nd place and £50 Bet365 winner @ 5.0+

£65 profit after QLs

Gambling on 2nd then

 

[Simon]

I think Btts 1st half has come in about 7 times in the last 10 offers too. It's made me and a lot of friend decent money.

I go for over 3.5 fh goals as qualifier and btts in play usually for 6-7 odds depending on game. £250-300 profit a game

 

[McPhee]

Good haul today. A modest £22.50 on a draw in Italy v Germany. A much less modest £75 from the penalties result from my £5 free bets.

Come on Iceland

 

[Goberpiles316]

For those using odds monkey or PA, do you have to track all your bets on a spreadsheet or do they keep a recorded them on the sites?

 

[bobbyspangles]

How do you manage £75 on a £5 free bet? Is it worth matching those small bets or do you just take a gamble on long odds?

 

[AHarvey]

ok, i am confused. I am not a betting/gambling person so it's hardly surprising

First intro bet on Yesbets.

Germany vs Italy, it tells me to bet on Germany.

Create Coral account, enter code, place bet on Germany for £5.
Create Betfair account and place a lay bet on Germany for £5.02

Germany won.

Zero balance + £20 free bets on Coral
Extra £4.77 on my betfair account.

Surely it should have been + on coral and - on Betfair?

Or have I somehow managed to mess this up and still come out ok?

and another quick question, do you have to place your £5 free bets individually or can you do so 2 bets of £10 with them?

 

[TurnipHead]

AHarvey, you haven't messed it up. Germany won but they didn't win within 90 minutes. The standard Match Odds bet (Germany/Draw/Italy) have to be decided within 90 minutes. So technically it was a draw after 90 minutes which is why you won on Betfair.

I believe Coral has given you four, £5 free bets. So you can either use them individually, making sure to select Free bet (Stake not returned) on the calculator.

OR you could place all four of your £5 bets on the same pick. You would have to place the bet four times, each time selecting the free £5 bet. Then all you have to do is put £20 into the calculator. But obviously a £20 bet will require a lot of money in your Betfair account. You can combine the £20 any way you wish. Four £5 bets, two £10 bets, one £5 and one £15 etc.

For example if you were to use all four of your £5 bets on Iceland to win tomorrow, at 8.5 odds. You would put £20 into the calculator and the back/lay odds. Which at the moment means you would need around £140 in Betfair.

 

[rhyswt]

I've been doing this for a couple of weeks now (fairly slowly) and was just wondering if there was any alternative way of depositing cash in the bookie accounts?

The more free bet sign up offers I use the more deposits are going to appear on my bank statements. While I know technically there's no problem with this I would rather them not be there given the choice.

Does anybody here do anything different? I was looking at the mondo card but I don't think you can withdraw onto that just yet.

Cheers

 

[Diddums]

I use a separate bank account for this. I also refuse to use anything other than a bank account for deposits. Paypal and Skrill are alternatives and in some cases Paypal is also quicker to work with but I just don't trust it, for me it's a flag for soeone who abuses bonuses.

EDIT:

This one:

ok, i am confused. I am not a betting/gambling person so it's hardly surprising

First intro bet on Yesbets.

Germany vs Italy, it tells me to bet on Germany.

Create Coral account, enter code, place bet on Germany for £5.
Create Betfair account and place a lay bet on Germany for £5.02

Germany won.

Zero balance + £20 free bets on Coral
Extra £4.77 on my betfair account.

Surely it should have been + on coral and - on Betfair?

Or have I somehow managed to mess this up and still come out ok?

and another quick question, do you have to place your £5 free bets individually or can you do so 2 bets of £10 with them?

It gets a bit tricky sometimes because of extra time and penalties. It's a bit weird the way it works but it all works out fine in the end, this threw me off at first too.

 

[dodg3rman]

3 horse racing refunds today. £25 Coral beaten by a length, £25 Sky 2nd place and £50 Bet365 winner @ 5.0+

£65 profit after QLs

Hey Skillmeister , nothing for me today but i didnt do many today. Do you have a criteria for selections or just as close a match as possible ? I dont seem to have much success with horse refunds and its annoying the heck out of me. All those qualifying losses mount up through the day

5 horses for the Sky refund yesterday and i picked the 3rd who was sitting nicely all race only to drop offat the death

 

[AHarvey]

Thanks for clearing that up Makes sense now

I'm also using an old account that I had before we moved to a joint account, just makes things easier for me to track and hide if needed

Are there any risks with doing this with the horse racing over football?

 

[Simon]

Horse racing match betting tends to be picking value bets (those with the tightest odds)

The problem is big odds sometimes win a bookies don't like this. Many of the 2nd place offers have dried up since start of the year. Used to be loads from both PP and WH. Now they just do '2nd to starting favourite'.


Football is always 90mins. Extra time and penalties are irrelevant unless your bet is for a team to qualify for the next round. Be vary wary of this. Especially on fixtures with 2 legs.

 

[Simon]

Hey Skillmeister , nothing for me today but i didnt do many today. Do you have a criteria for selections or just as close a match as possible ? I dont seem to have much success with horse refunds and its annoying the heck out of me. All those qualifying losses mount up through the day

5 horses for the Sky refund yesterday and i picked the 3rd who was sitting nicely all race only to drop offat the death

Are you picking every race. Or just looking for ones that 'look good'

Try and pick races with less than 8 horses. Ideally with two clear favourites. Betting on every race possible isn't usually worth it.

Ayr 15:25 today is a perfect example. Although it's PP 2nd to starting favourite 5 horses. Odds are 1.73,2.1,26,101,101.

2.1 /2.4 on the 2nd fav. Not ideal but this will probably tighten.

 

[itno]

I'm lost

Created accounts with Yes Bets (free for now), BetFair and Coral. Followed the guides and used the 4 free bets. But now what? Is that it for Coral or will they give me free bets over time? Are the free bets on a daily basis or occasionally? Should I sign up to more offers until the offers run out? Is it the case that the more bookies one signs up for the more chances of free bets hence how profit it made?

 

[AHarvey]

I'm lost

Created accounts with Yes Bets (free for now), BetFair and Coral. Followed the guides and used the 4 free bets. But now what? Is that it for Coral or will they give me free bets over time? Are the free bets on a daily basis or occasionally? Should I sign up to more offers until the offers run out? Is it the case that the more bookies one signs up for the more chances of free bets hence how profit it made?

My understanding is that they show you how to make about £15 from your free bets, which you can then use to pay for the yesbets monthly sub and go from there with all new bets

 

[doodah]

For those using odds monkey or PA, do you have to track all your bets on a spreadsheet or do they keep a recorded them on the sites?

A spreadsheet, there's a link to a blank one of the previous page. I think YesBets can track your winnings online.