Who will win the next general election?

Nitefly

Nitefly

Nitefly

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Just viewing the BBC coverage about the council votes. In all honesty I have no idea this was going on.

So who do you think will win the next general election, or what else do you predict? It's going to be tight between labour and the conservatives I think. A lot of people have been hit hard by the current rule, but for those that haven't, their policies may seem like 'necessary in hard times'. Sensible or a lack of compassion... who can say!

My only real prediction is that the lib dems are going to tank.

What say you?

FIGHT!

(A poll would be lovely - who will win the election, not who you want to win!)
 
After the current coalition, I would prefer not to see another one. I suspect that it is unlikely for one party to obtain an overall majority though.

I would prefer it to be the Conservatives.

Worst case Lab/Lib

Outside possibility (on todays votes) Con/UKIP
 
The next general election is over 2 years away (unless the coalition choose to call one early).

A lot can change between now and then.

Council Elections are so different to a General Election, that I'm not really sure you could draw much information from these results, even if the General Election wasn't so far off.
 
Pretty much what you said, if you look at the spending of the last Labor Government you could argue they operated a 'Scorched earth political policy' whereby they left the Conservatives in so much debt in their third term, and have made the system so difficult to unravel, i.e public sector jobs and the welfare system, NHS etc that there wasn't really much the Tories could do to change things, even though they are trying to implement 'austerity' they can't really find anything to cut. Pinch a few pennies from the poor maybe and try and get some political brownie points at the same time although JSA is a tiny fraction of even the welfare budget(3% i think). I think they did well on the Euro issue though, not giving into the demands of complete British integration and leaving it up in the air.

Lib dems seem to have really damaged their credibility, the polls show Labour about 5-10% in front. I can't really see what the Tories can do to. They are borrowing more money each year than last.
 
It's a bit to early for crystal balls :p so I'll make a prediction much closer to the actual election.
 
Hopefully not Labour.

If the economy shows consistent growth (albeit very low growth) over the next 2 years and the deficit is still coming down, the Tories might scrape back in.
 
I think Labour would have won it had they gone for the other Milliband. I think another coalition will happen with the tories.
 
I'd rather a coalition of the main parties, and all MPs free to vote as they wish. That way parties couldn't use their majority to push through poorly thought out legislation.
 
Labour, with a decent margin.

The Tories only hope was to deliver on the economy; they've failed. We're likely to be seeing growth by 2015 but not the kind of strong, election-winning growth the Tories need. Couple that with a disaffected right wing which will either squabble distractingly at the edge of the party or, worse, depose Cameron in a coup and yank the party hard right in a hopeless attempt to woo disaffected UKIP voters back to the true blue waters and the Tories chances look slim to non-existence before you even in factor in the UKIP factor. UKIP won't get the kind of showing in the nationals they imagine but they'll still take votes from all three major parties and the Tories most of all.

Against that backdrop, and helped by leftwing former LibDem voters returning to vote Labour in the absence of decent alternatives, Labour will gather enough support to win a majority.

I'll go further: Labour will win again in 2019/20. The cycle of growth will swing back and deliver the feel good factor that Labour need; meanwhile the Tory/UKIP spat will hot up and the Tories will lurch right, surrendering the centre ground needed to win elections.
 
We have two years yet and anything can happen in that time, particularly with the economy.

If we see a recovery, a successful re-privatisation of RBS, and a reduction in both the immigration and deficit issues then I suspect that the Conservatives will potentially have the upper hand. The Lib Dems I think are stuffed, they alienated their core support and promised things they simply could not deliver and I would predict that will hit them hard. As for Labour, it will depend on how the economy does and whether they can shake off the blame for the Economic Crisis in the meantime....it might also help if they actually get some definitive policies out there as well.

But overall, its too soon to predict and there is also the Scottish question to consider in future.
 
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