£80m EuroMillions jackpot

desires said:
Prove it.
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Really? You don't believe me that the lottery has one of the worst house edges in the gambling industry? How do you think it can afford to give so much away to charity?

For example, the chances of winning £10 on the Lotto is 57 to 1. In other words you'd have to spend £57 before you got £10 back (statistically speaking), that's a house edge of 82% on that bet alone. Your average table game for example though has a house edge of 1-5%.

If you went to a bookie and put a £1 on an accumulator of 6 bets with a 21 to 1 price against them that would equal a win of £85m and the chance of it happening would be less than the 116,000,000 to 1 odds on winning the lottery.
 
I seldom do the lottery and almost never the Euro one, so correct me if I'm wrong it's £1.50 for a ticket?

A long time ago in work I found a £1 (big deal) but joked with my mate it's a lucky quid to win the lottery with. Never spent it, and to this day I still have it.... this week I found a fifty pence piece..... gulp!
 
estebanrey said:
Really? You don't believe me that the lottery has one of the worst house edges in the gambling industry? How do you think it can afford to give so much away to charity?

For example, the chances of winning £10 on the Lotto is 57 to 1. In other words you'd have to spend £57 before you got £10 back (statistically speaking), that's a house edge of 82% on that bet alone. Your average table game for example though has a house edge of 1-5%.

If you went to a bookie and put a £1 on an accumulator of 6 bets with a 21 to 1 price against them that would equal a win of £85m and the chance of it happening would be less than the 116,000,000 to 1 odds on winning the lottery.
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It's not true though because bookies odds are calculated in different way. If you put £1 on 6 bets of 21:1 it's statistically less likely to happen than the lottery. The lottery has solid hard stats behind it, based on randomness, that aren't altered by prior draws, bookies odds (sports anyway) are based on priors and pretty much only offer those odds to tempt you even though the bookies know for a fact they've just taken your money.
 
DirtyJester said:
I seldom do the lottery and almost never the Euro one, so correct me if I'm wrong it's £1.50 for a ticket?

A long time ago in work I found a £1 (big deal) but joked with my mate it's a lucky quid to win the lottery with. Never spent it, and to this day I still have it.... this week I found a fifty pence piece..... gulp!
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It's £2 now so you'll have to find another 'lucky' 50p
 
desires said:
It's not true though because bookies odds are calculated in different way. If you put £1 on 6 bets of 21:1 it's statistically less likely to happen than the lottery. The lottery has solid hard stats behind it, based on randomness, bookies odds are based on priors and pretty much only offer those odds to tempt you even though the bookies know for a fact they've just taken your money.
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What the hell are you talking about?

I've done quite a bit of statistical analysis on bookies odds and I can tell you they are pretty darn accurate.

If anything, the fact sports odds aren't based on solid statistical probability means the punter has more chance of winning not less. Go on a bookies website, pick an event and calculate the odds of covering all events and you'll find that if you did that you would be guaranteed to make a small loss. And that loss would be small and constitutes their 'edge' which will be much, much lower than the lotteries.
 
estebanrey said:
Really? You don't believe me that the lottery has one of the worst house edges in the gambling industry? How do you think it can afford to give so much away to charity?

For example, the chances of winning £10 on the Lotto is 57 to 1. In other words you'd have to spend £57 before you got £10 back (statistically speaking), that's a house edge of 82% on that bet alone. Your average table game for example though has a house edge of 1-5%.

If you went to a bookie and put a £1 on an accumulator of 6 bets with a 21 to 1 price against them that would equal a win of £85m and the chance of it happening would be less than the 116,000,000 to 1 odds on winning the lottery.
Click to expand...

That reminds of the accumulator that Dynamo did. Odds were 10000:1 and he got it with a £1 bet. Was it a trick? Who knows, YOU DECIDE!
 
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