Am I bonkers for wanting to move now?

NotAGolf

NotAGolf

NotAGolf

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Moving...
We currently live in a 3 bed semi. We'd like to move for to a larger 3 bed detached. Our house is worth ~400k and the next place would be ~650k. We're fortunate enough to have saved enough money to be mortgage free in our current house and we'd have a decent chunk to go down on a deposit for the next one, so the mortgage would be larger than what we have now but fairly manageable (although things would start getting a bit tight if rates go much higher). Our current outgoings are relatively low so we're managing to save a fair chunk of cash each month too which is helping.

The main drivers for wanting to move are:
- Bigger garden
- Larger rooms for the kids
- Bigger living area
- Separate room for a home office (I work from home)
- Attached garage for storage

This isn't a question of "Should we move?", it's a question of "When should we move?" as we know we don't want to stay here forever.

Whether it's a good time to move depends on what house prices are going to do over the next year or two, so I guess there's 3 options:

1) If house prices were to drop over the next 1-2 years, then it would be good for us (assuming both properties decrease by similar %) as the reduction in house prices will result in a lower mortgage, as well as having saved a few more £££ over the coming months.

2) If house prices stagnate for the next 1-2 years, then this would be good for us as well as we'd still be saving and increasing our deposit amount whilst the house price doesn't increase.

3) If house prices increase by more than what we are saving each month, then this is where we lose out.

There's plenty of forecasts in the news that are predicting options 1 or 2, with 3 being unlikely. Having said that, that doesn't seem to be having an effect around here. Houses are still coming onto market and being snapped up quickly, presumably for the asking price or over considering how quick they're shifting. We live in the South and have a very specific set of criteria for where we'd move too. There's not many of those types of houses that come onto the market, so whilst option 1 and 2 would save us money, I don't want to miss the opportunity to go for a house that might only come up once in a blue moon.

I appreciate no one knows what's going to happen to house prices, but would appreciate any thoughts if people are in/have been in a similar situation.
 
I would say that life moves on in every way and if we worried about all the issues that are presented to us we would do nothing at all.

If you see a house you like and you sell your house then go for it. You won't be in any worse position than you are now but you would have all the benefits that you are looking for in a new house. This is your home, not a logic based investment fund.

I have to say that despite all the news about house price rises and house prices falls I don't really see any changes in the housing market around here (Lincoln) except that houses all seem very expensive.
 
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There's never going to be a perfect day to do these things. It sounds like you're in a fantastic financial position. We spent ages looking for a house; I would put yours on the market now and start looking because these things can take months and months.
 
The house that you're after won't be on sale forever, so I say - go for it. Also, it's unlikely that the mortgage rates will go below 5% again. Even if the markets settle down, it will probably stay at around 5% because that was the norm pre-2008. The 2%-3% that we had in recent years was unusual.
 
I would probably go for it , especially detached, our situation was different as we hated our part of west Yorkshire so mortgage free meant escape......
 
If your moving 'up' (which you are) then now is a good time to buy IMO. Even if you own house is currently devaluing in theory the property your looking to buy should be as well (assuming it's in the same area) in which case the overall delta between the two properties should narrow making it easier to buy.
 
NotAGolf said:
2) If house prices stagnate for the next 1-2 years, then this would be good for us as well as we'd still be saving and increasing our deposit amount whilst the house price doesn't increase.
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On the flip side, if you moved now then you'd have the benefit of living in a better house compared to waiting. I'd say the only scenario it makes sense to stay put is scenario 1 but even then you can't be sure what will happen in the medium term. We bought our house in Q4 2008 when the world was collapsing, it probably took a few years for our new house to 'break even' but obviously it's increased in value since then. The benefits of not living next door to a psycho outweighed the financial loss anyway.

It's also hard to time the dip if that's your intention. If you see prices falling and wait for the trough, by the time you mobilise to move (including selling your current home) prices will likely be on the rise again.

We're in a similar position (mortgage free and would like a bigger house) but feel like we've missed the boat compared to having moved a few years ago. My savings pot has also shrunk as a lot of it was tied up in Stocks&Shares ISA and I've been massively overpaying pension rather than putting in cash savings. Certainly we've dropped the ball by a six-figure sum compared to having bought somewhere a couple of years back. A £500k home is now a £650k home etc.

Schools complicate things a bit too. Feels like if we move it would be highly desirable to do so before my eldest son starts secondary school.

Keep in mind that housing supply is still an issue especially with people looking to upsize for home office space etc and net migration standing at over half a million people per year. In other words in two years time even assuming births/deaths is neutral that would be another million people needing a home.
 
I’d move if you want to move and you can afford to. House prices might drop temporarily but that’s the key word, temporary.

I’ve always been minded to get into what ever property you are going to stay in long term as quickly as possible.

To be honest, the biggest worry about moving is not whether the house prices will go down or up, (it’s sort of irrelevant if you are planning to stay for any significant period of time), it’s whether the house you actually want exists in the market once you have sold your own.
 
If I was unhappy where I was I'd move early 2023. (which would be probably what would happen if you started the process now).

But if house is nice but you just want the next thing I think I'd wait until things settle down a bit.
 
Thanks for the advice all. My wife is very much in the "go for it" camp, I'm the one who's dragging my heels. Maybe I'm subconsciously trying to come up with excuses to put off moving just to avoid the stress/hassle of moving :D
 
NotAGolf said:
Thanks for the advice all. My wife is very much in the "go for it" camp, I'm the one who's dragging my heels. Maybe I'm subconsciously trying to come up with excuses to put off moving just to avoid the stress/hassle of moving :D
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Go for it, it will be worth it when it’s all done.
 
I’m going to take a slightly different position to most in this thread so far.

Timing the market is notoriously difficult, and in general my view would be to simply move whenever you need or want to.

However, I think that a moderate correction in house prices is far more likely than not; and I think that the evidence suggests that it’s already begun - Remember, asking prices lag quite significantly.

Anyway, I’ve been watching this fairly closely as my wife and I are planning on upsizing soon also, and so far the indicators are supportive of that view; even accounting for the stealthy mortgage bailout in the autumn budget.

Personally, I would hold off for a bit. But whatever you decide, good luck.
 
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