Soldato
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AMD & Nvidia chip shortages on the horizon
- Thread starter opethdisciple
- Start date
Caporegime
- Joined
- 18 Oct 2002
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- 33,188
Its rubbish to be honest, someone put a big order in months ago, thats life. Lots of people put in LOTS of orders for Fermi's last October, look how they came in, in drips and drabs.
Likewise they've been making their gt240 type chips by the absolute bucket load, they've already used up over half the allocation because Nvidia have bigger market share and sales right now.
Big orders are done over time, and they'll have built up a huge supply of their tinniest chips they've been putting thousands of wafers through a month for well, best part of 9 months now. They'll have gotten out a huge supply now to Dell and the big buyers of those cards. So the majority of the new chips will simply be made instead of other bits. The gt240 as I understand is to be completely replaced, finally, with a full dx10 part in the GF108, the GF108 orders will be manitudes higher than those of the gf104 and most of them will simply be those instead of the wafers they currently make.
It sounds all but done that GF100 is out of production and never got more than a basic run as theres just not enough demand, they sit on shelves with large price drops and aren't in large scale production at the very least.
Its a none issue, companies will place massive orders of 10k-100k's of wafers at a time to get them to agree to a lower price.
GloFo production won't be till next year, and its debatable what point in the year. 28nm does seem like it will be around earlier rather than later in the year, but it doesn't really fit a production cycle to release new parts on Oct/Nov, then replace them all completely in April or so.
I reckon we might see a 4770 type card, a shrunk card on 28nm to have a little play around, but then theres less use. TSMC make crap processes and practice early obviously helped the current gen, but with GloFo AMD are incredibly highly involved with them, so its very likely a "practice" card is completely unnecessary as I wouldn't be surprised if test wafers at GloFo are focusing on AMD gpu's as its a complex design they can tweak the process until it works.
Next year will be uber, with huge huge headroom for more shaders and power, though don't expect them to go completely overboard, slowdown of process technology means we'll get two gens on 28nm aswell(maybe more), but that means the first cards on 28nm are going to be tiny, should hopefully be able to go very cheap again, and be probably very low power(for the performance).
Likewise they've been making their gt240 type chips by the absolute bucket load, they've already used up over half the allocation because Nvidia have bigger market share and sales right now.
Big orders are done over time, and they'll have built up a huge supply of their tinniest chips they've been putting thousands of wafers through a month for well, best part of 9 months now. They'll have gotten out a huge supply now to Dell and the big buyers of those cards. So the majority of the new chips will simply be made instead of other bits. The gt240 as I understand is to be completely replaced, finally, with a full dx10 part in the GF108, the GF108 orders will be manitudes higher than those of the gf104 and most of them will simply be those instead of the wafers they currently make.
It sounds all but done that GF100 is out of production and never got more than a basic run as theres just not enough demand, they sit on shelves with large price drops and aren't in large scale production at the very least.
Its a none issue, companies will place massive orders of 10k-100k's of wafers at a time to get them to agree to a lower price.
GloFo production won't be till next year, and its debatable what point in the year. 28nm does seem like it will be around earlier rather than later in the year, but it doesn't really fit a production cycle to release new parts on Oct/Nov, then replace them all completely in April or so.
I reckon we might see a 4770 type card, a shrunk card on 28nm to have a little play around, but then theres less use. TSMC make crap processes and practice early obviously helped the current gen, but with GloFo AMD are incredibly highly involved with them, so its very likely a "practice" card is completely unnecessary as I wouldn't be surprised if test wafers at GloFo are focusing on AMD gpu's as its a complex design they can tweak the process until it works.
Next year will be uber, with huge huge headroom for more shaders and power, though don't expect them to go completely overboard, slowdown of process technology means we'll get two gens on 28nm aswell(maybe more), but that means the first cards on 28nm are going to be tiny, should hopefully be able to go very cheap again, and be probably very low power(for the performance).
