This weekend will be interesting as it's the first weekend since Christmas and the New Year. Bet the network still dies. I've a sneaky feeling these problems aren't related to too many subscribers. I keep feeling that it's a DoS attack on Live and Xbox.com.
In 25 days time-ish when all the new "1 month free" users are gone it will all be fine. Only way to convince them to stay (they have probably got a worse view of the service than us long time users) is if they roll out this free game sharpish (everyone likes something free!!!).
It is a simple case of they sold a lot of 360's and a lot of the users tried the 1 month free gold and it overloaded their servers. I genuinely cannot think it is anything more complicated than that. If it was DoS or something else we would have heard about it by now.
rp2000