Current generation CPU longevity estimates

[q974739]

Afternoon all. I'd be very interest in your opinions on the longevity of the current generation CPUs. We currently have a set of very interesting offers available on Overclockers for AMD. We have a whole bunch of intels that aren't actually bad....and we have the 5800x3D dark horse coming shortly.

So how long do we reckon the current CPUs (and 5800X3D, it's close enough to here to count) will last as effective CPUs?

My first thought is that the 5600X will be the first to drop off first - and likely the 6 core intels (12600 and worse) shortly after. Not sure if this is going to be 2 years (devs finally start using 8 threads properly!) or 4, next console generation.

But at the high end, especially for games - I have no idea which will die first, the 5800X3D or the 5900x. The First being very vulnerable to larger engines in cache (but they'd have to stay reasonable for consoles, so it should be safer?) vs the vastly higher core count and larger surface for cooling.

Anyway, what do you guys think? (Yes, I'm procrastinating about the AMD offers. Hoping to spark dicussion that might help me make a decision.)

 

[q974739]

4690k is only just over 7 and a half years old.

I have a 4790k clinging on. I would have upgraded a long time ago if I’d made the mistake of going 4690k like many suggested at the time

I had a 6600k, and if it hasn't died of lightning, it was going to be replaced SOON. Was no longer cutting it in gaming.

 

[q974739]

The PS5 and Xbox have 8c16t Zen 2. That's the spec that PC games will be designed for. The last console generation lasted 7 years. So expect that spec of PC to last until 2027.

Also, Nvidia 4090 is supposed to be 100% faster than 3090. Nvidia 5090 will probs be 50% faster than 4090. If that's the case, the 5090 will be 300% faster than the 3090.

So you guys who mentioned the 5600x - do you honestly think it will keep up with a GPU that's 3x faster than a 3090? We only talking about September 2024 until September 2026.

Do you think the issue will be lack of cores,IPC, frequency, PCI version...?

 

[q974739]

At high resolution a modern cpu will last 3 years minimum easily.

Define "modern"

 

[q974739]

Anything from the 10900k era (even 9900k potentially) would be fine in my opinion.

There's people playing with older than that with no issues.

With a lack of pc focused game releases, there's nothing that really pushes the hardware unless it's badly optimised.

Not sure I'd include the basic 3600 in that...

 

[q974739]

4690 cannot run games at 4k, while doing typical background tasks (discord, youtube, spotify, few other apps) at the same time as a AAA game. A 6700k can't. Even 9900k's struggle with some games, when running typical apps at the same time.

Where would you draw the line? What predictions would you make?

 

[q974739]

If longevity is your primary concern you would be best waiting for AM5 latter in the year, Current AM4 and LGA1700 (six months left) are both EOL.
.

Not an option for those of us with AM 4

 

[q974739]

There definitely is a chance that consoles revert to 30fps towards the end of their cycle, in that case you should also expect a Zen 2 CPU to mirror that on PC as well.

Isn't cyberpunk 2077 borderline on an 3600?

 

[q974739]

FPS was 45-capped 60.

There you've lost me... 45?

 

[q974739]

Borderline in what sense? It handles Cyberpunk fine from GN's testing:

They found some hitching (still playable though) on the 3300X (4/8) and 8600K (6/6), but they said the 3600 was fine in their experience.

60 FPS on 0.1% lows, would be what I'm after

 

[q974739]

My answer is 5

My thanks for your helpful answer.