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Do You Think That We're Going To Have Another GPU Shortage Because Of AI? :o(

thesnowdog1971

thesnowdog1971

thesnowdog1971

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292
I'm planning the build of a new rig for VR goodness, but because of my financial situation I'm having to split the purchases of the main rig and the GPU into separate purchases, 6 months apart.

My current GPU is a 1080, which is REALLY showing its age these days! Seeing as you're better off with a GPU bottleneck than a CPU bottleneck, I was planning on getting the parts for the main build, minus the GPU, and using my trusty old 1080 with it until I can afford a 7900XT in April or May.

But I've seen a few YouTubers saying that there's going to be a shortage of high end GPUs because companies are going to buy them for AI usage.

So will I be better off buying these parts the other way around? Getting the GPU first then building the rig in April or May, because it may be impossible to get one next year?

What do you guys think? :o/
 
I think that's mostly click bait from desperate youtubers.

For the last gen there was a trifecta of issues as we had a crypto boom, a lockdown so lots of people with a lot of free time and lot of people skipping the RTX 2xxx gen and ready for an upgrade.

While some companies could choose to buy gaming GPU's for AI, it's not like crypto where you had both companies and private indiviuals scrambling on mass to get them.
And wheras with crypto some x1 risers and a PSU you were golden, AI likely needs decent PCI throughput so specialised boards, chipset CPU with no guarentee of a quick payback.

I can see most small enterprises renting cloud resource for development.
 
decto said:
I think that's mostly click bait from desperate youtubers.

For the last gen there was a trifecta of issues as we had a crypto boom, a lockdown so lots of people with a lot of free time and lot of people skipping the RTX 2xxx gen and ready for an upgrade.

While some companies could choose to buy gaming GPU's for AI, it's not like crypto where you had both companies and private indiviuals scrambling on mass to get them.
And wheras with crypto some x1 risers and a PSU you were golden, AI likely needs decent PCI throughput so specialised boards, chipset CPU with no guarentee of a quick payback.

I can see most small enterprises renting cloud resource for development.
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Great, thanks for that! I reckon I'll build the main rig in November then get the GPU in April or May then, thanks for the reassurance!
 
No one knows

I think it's pretty obvious Nvidia and amd and Intel are all incentivised to sell GPUs to AI companies instead of gamers because the profit margin is 4 times higher

Time will tell how much this affects nextbgen GPUs
 
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Slightly different to the last crypto shortages though.

Like already mentioned we are in global recession, so consumer spending is less.

After 20+ years, cheap credit is gone.

While wafers are wafers, is AI demand so insatiable that it can take up all the dropped demand from GPUs, phones, CPUs, etc.? Seems unlikely, although I'm sure that especially Nvidia will drop hints to friendly media about a GPU shortage to keep prices high.

Since AMD is barely interested in GPUs, that may work.

On the AMD side there a few factors.

RDNA3 is not as good as RDNA2 was compared to the competition. The biggest problem with RDNA2 was 7nm had huge competition from console and Zen 2&3. That's a bit different now but like I said, AMD seem barely interested in dGPUs and in terms of margins any Zen chiplet has far far higher ones.

Time will tell, but it doesn't feel like the previous crypto shortages, especially since that really was actually the crypto + covid + new consoles + money printing shortage.
 
AI has been around for years, it's gotten popular because of the success of ChatGPT which is It's the latest fad in this sector and as a result people have been losing their minds over AI.

The reality is we are a long, long, long way from true AI that can self learn and develop genuine intelligence. Ignore the clowns you see on YouTube (remember when people were pushing alt coins and NFT's that people didn't really understand and got conned?) as theres too many grifters peddling nonsense about AI trying to generate clout for themselves.

I'll be impressed when someone creates an AI that means it can play something Age Of Empire's without having to resort to cheating to beat the human player.
 
Doop! said:
I don't care any more, I've bought myself a Mac and I'm out of PC gaming. The consoles are good enough.
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cool story bro.

anyway... i don't think demand will be as great as it won't be every tom, dick and harry clamouring for them as it was for the crypto boom. There are plenty of overpriced cards sitting on shelves these days. I suspect it'll be ok
 
sunshinewelly said:
i disagree - jays latest video was pretty compelling
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I dunno whether your post is sarcasm or not because I don't watch much of his YouTube, assuming you mean JayzTwoCents?

I did happen to watch one the other day and he made a video going out of his way to prove a comment one of his sponsors made was wrong about which way to orientate a radiator.

Admittedly the comment his sponsor made was a little "loose" but basically he proved there is damn near no difference either way.

And actually he was using a custom loop, had the GPU been naturally fan cooled (as will be the case with the majority of builds) I'd argue for a few degrees higher CPU it'll be better for your GPU and other components.

But basically it was a big deal over nothing, and based on that I wouldn't be in a rush to watch any more of his content.
 
I think its all down to money. AI demand will not slow down. I have a feeling we will eventually be abandoned like VHS when DVD came out. They don't care about gamers only about money we generate.
 
Its just another buzz word the media have latched on to. AI has been around for years in one form or another. The auto brightness on your mobile phone is a low form of AI. It knows when to reduce the brightness on your screen or increase it. It will replace us as gamers. AI will sit there gaming for you whilst the AI in game provides the gaming environment. We can then go out to the beach. Remember META ? That was the buzz word a while ago it will take over the world and its gone down like a lead balloon. AI is not quite the same as META which never materialised in the first place only in the mind of the Facebook owner but as a buzz word it is exactly that. Same as "Cost of Living Crisis" same as "Climate Change" just buzz words the media like to use. Both these have been around for a while its nothing new but the media does like a buzz word.
 
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I also think with crypto there was a direct link between buying more gpus and making more money. With AI it's far less clear cut. You kind of need a plan to convert the processing power you have to some sort of commercial undertaking. And to be honest I suspect that a lot of these people are already running thin on ideas
 
AI is not going away and logically if nvidea can sell chips at a higher price for AI vendors than they can for gamers then why would they not do that. Jays recent video was enough to convince me yesterday to get a RTX4090 FE to replace my RTX 3080 FE.
 
KompuKare said:
While wafers are wafers, is AI demand so insatiable that it can take up all the dropped demand from GPUs, phones, CPUs, etc.? Seems unlikely, although I'm sure that especially Nvidia will drop hints to friendly media about a GPU shortage to keep prices high.
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...and drip feeding supply to give the impression of high demand while they sit on stock, hoping to sell at a higher prices.
 
There's so much discussion and information coming out regarding AI.
It doesn't really matter if it will create a true shortage for consumers or not. Companies will continue to use any excuse they have to withhold stock and charge more.
 
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