DX10 cards - when?

times_champion · 19 Jan 2006 at 12:50

Has anyone heard any concrete info on when we can expect the first DX10 cards? I had an interim upg on my rig this xmas (6600GT and 1gb RAM) but it probably isnt worth an expensive upgrade at this point if an expensive graphics card will be seriously superseded in a few months. Do you think they will arrive at the same time as vista (late 2006?) or earlier? I am excited by the 'console-esque' launch of vista where compatible games will be released at the same time as the os, like Far Cry 2 etc, so I may buy an entirely new PC at that time.

chaparral · 19 Jan 2006 at 13:04

it,s not really a question of when do the dx10 cards come out...It's more of case of went do the dx10 games come out...

Goksly · 19 Jan 2006 at 13:16

iirc the set after the next set (next set is going to be late jan (ati) / march (nvidia)) should be the DX10 cards.... so you are talking about an announcement around august and released sometime after that. As microsoft (to my knowledge) hasnt given a confirmed release date for vista (just second half of the year) - well they wont be rushing to get the cards out before each other ;p

Will DX10 cards be backward compatable with DX9 games / operating systems? I would assume so, but can anyone confirm?

Valleyman · 19 Jan 2006 at 13:16

No-one has concrete info... but we'll only see them emerging around 12 months from now when we are expecting the next generation. 8xxx series etc. It could infact be shorter... no ones knows the release schedule.

DX9 has only just been fully adopted by ATI (with SM3.0), and is fully implemented in very few games at present. DX10 will be nothing more than benchmark eye candy for a while yet. Vista will not be the coming of a sudden new age of computer games...

The big things on the horizon will be:
- The continued adoption of dual core, especially with Vista. And the introduction of quad-core in 2007. We can look foreward to full multi threaded 64bit windows, and games designed for multi thread chips.
- AMD's move to DDR 2 with the new AM2 chipset, and Intels move to DDR3 at some point.

Frankly nothing huge on the horizon. Those people who purchased a 4800+ and 2x7800GTXs in SLi 7 months ago are grinning, cause they know their system isn't going out of date for a while yet and will remain amoungst the best for an unprecidented amount of time in the world of computer upgrades.

12 months from now a top system will be, at a guess, an FX-64 with a 2x8800GTX (if we're lucky)... I forsee an 18 month old oc'd 4800+ and 2x7800GTX outperforming a single card version of this system fairly easy.

Sorry, think I went a bit off topic.

King_Boru · 19 Jan 2006 at 13:22

Valleyman said:
No-one has concrete info... but we'll only see them emerging around 12 months from now when we are expecting the next generation. 8xxx series etc. It could infact be shorter... no ones knows the release schedule.

DX9 has only just been fully adopted by ATI (with SM3.0), and is fully implemented in very few games at present. DX10 will be nothing more than benchmark eye candy for a while yet. Vista will not be the coming of a sudden new age of computer games...

Frankly nothing huge on the horizon. Those people who purchased a 4800+ and 2x7800GTXs in SLi 7 months ago are grinning, cause they know their system isn't going out of date for a while yet and will remain amoungst the best for an unprecidented amount of time in the world of computer upgrades.

12 months from now a top system will be, at a guess, an FX-64 with a 2x8800GTX (if we're lucky)... I forsee an 18 month old oc'd 4800+ and 2x7800GTX outperforming a single card version of this system fairly easy.

Sorry, think I went a bit off topic.

Very ambitous claims. Be carefull what you say on this forum. There are a lot of hot headed know it alls who will argue to the death on what they think will be out in the future.

Valleyman · 19 Jan 2006 at 13:29

King_Boru said:
Very ambitous claims. Be carefull what you say on this forum. There are a lot of hot headed know it alls who will argue to the death on what they think will be out in the future.

Heh... I havn't said much that can be disagreed with to be fair. Unless some people do indeed "know it all"... hehe

AMDs roadmap indicates a 3.0Ghz Dual core FX processor in 12 months. Logic states it will be named FX-64.

An 18 month turnouver between graphics card generation is about nomal too. And logic states a 60-80% increase in speeds, as with previous generations. Therefore todys SLi is approximatly tomorrows single card solution.

Therefore an 18 month old oc'd 4800+ and 2x7800GTXs in SLI
is approximatly similar to...
An FX-64 with a 8800GTX (or equivalent)...

I highly doubt I'll be THAT far off. And if I am I'll eat my proverbial hat.

times_champion · 19 Jan 2006 at 13:44

So if I hang on towards the end of the year, I would likely be able to get a system with an AMD dual core 3ghz processor, 8800gtx (or whatever) 1st gen DX10 card, and Vista? Sounds good to me!! I know what you mean about dual 7800GTX's being of similar performance, but when games do start utilising DX10 (and if rumours of the console style launch are true, that could be as early as this year) I dont want to have to upgrade again....

chaparral · 19 Jan 2006 at 13:45

Valleyman said:
Heh... I havn't said much that can be disagreed with to be fair. Unless some people do indeed "know it all"... hehe

AMDs roadmap indicates a 3.0Ghz Dual core FX processor in 12 months. Logic states it will be named FX-64.

An 18 month turnouver between graphics card generation is about nomal too. And logic states a 60-80% increase in speeds, as with previous generations. Therefore todys SLi is approximatly tomorrows single card solution.

Therefore an 18 month old oc'd 4800+ and 2x7800GTXs in SLI
is approximatly similar to...
An FX-64 with a 8800GTX (or equivalent)...

I highly doubt I'll be THAT far off. And if I am I'll eat my proverbial hat.

The new geforce card (g71)coming out in about a month or so...is rumored to be almost the speed of two 7800gtx in sli already..

King_Boru · 19 Jan 2006 at 13:46

But when the time comes when you could possibly by all that there will be better components just around the corner. So really, if you want a new pc then get one. upgrade later or you'll never buy new parts.

Valleyman · 19 Jan 2006 at 14:22

chaparral said:
The new geforce card (g71)coming out in about a month or so...is rumored to be almost the speed of two 7800gtx in sli already..

The 7800GTX 512 was approximatly 25% faster than a stock 7800GTX. Which make it about 15% faster than most 7800GTXs out of the box, as the 7800GTX is an excellent overclocker and had a decent stock cooler.

I can't see the 7900GTX improving things hugely... yes an increase... but 15%-20% above the 7800GTX 512 seems likely... though obviously I can't be certain. bsically it'll be just enough to beat the x1900XT.

So yeah I can see the 7900GTX being about 40%ish faster at best than an out of the box 7800GTX.

Now look at the last generation.... 6800 Ultra > 7800GTX was only about 35%.

If we do the maths:

7800GTX: 1
7800GTX 512: 1*1.15 = 1.15
7900GTX: 1.15*1.2 = 1.38
8800GTX:1.38*1.35 = 1.86

Gawd this is long winded... I really am rambling...

Anyway, that 1.86 indicates the first crop of the next gen will be 86% better than a 7800GTX ROUGHLY (don't quote me). Therefore 7800GTX in SLi will be fairly closely matching the first cards in the next generation.

Am not trying to prove anything at all here apart from indicating that in winter 2006 an 18 month old PC will still be up there with the best of them. Thats all... really

I guess...

What was I saying again?

:-P

edit: Realised my comment about 2x7800GTX "easily" outperforming a single card are probably pap... I admit it... where's my hat?

Goksly · 19 Jan 2006 at 14:54

DX10 is a lot more than just bringing eye candy on another level - it also (iirc) is the driving factor behind hardware developments such as a unified architecture etc etc. If the rumour is true that Vista is the only OS to get DX10, then yeah the shift is going to be slow for games to adopt it, but no doubt most will just provide DX10 and DX9 in the same why HL2 provides 9,8.1 and 7.

ben_j_davis · 19 Jan 2006 at 15:27

Vista wont provide DX9,8,7 compatibility, although apparently there will be some software layer that should do the job, although it will come at a price of performance.

lemonkettaz · 19 Jan 2006 at 15:30

that is where vista and some games will have you by the nether regions.

you will have to upgrade

Goksly · 19 Jan 2006 at 15:34

hmmm that is interesting... I take it a similar system will be put in place to support OpenGL etc? Wonder what the performance impact will be - although I cant see me having a PC with Vista on within the next 12 months, by which date the card im going to buy within the next 2 months will be out of date i guess.

D.P. · 19 Jan 2006 at 16:08

Goksly said:
DX10 is a lot more than just bringing eye candy on another level - it also (iirc) is the driving factor behind hardware developments such as a unified architecture etc etc. If the rumour is true that Vista is the only OS to get DX10, then yeah the shift is going to be slow for games to adopt it, but no doubt most will just provide DX10 and DX9 in the same why HL2 provides 9,8.1 and 7.

The unified architecture wont change the way games look though. Actual shader coplexity or whatever fundamently wont have changed since when he 6800 came. That card was well ahead of its time and showed us the future of computers gfx. DX10 tidies things up in the background, imporves efficiencies etc but the kind of shaders that can be made wont be any more advanced, ujust the fasts will be afster so more shaders can be used.

Visually, DX10 wont be ajything like the change form DX7-8, or 8-9b or 9b-9c.

GOCP · 19 Jan 2006 at 17:28

D.P. said:
The unified architecture wont change the way games look though. Actual shader coplexity or whatever fundamently wont have changed since when he 6800 came. That card was well ahead of its time and showed us the future of computers gfx. DX10 tidies things up in the background, imporves efficiencies etc but the kind of shaders that can be made wont be any more advanced, ujust the fasts will be afster so more shaders can be used.

Visually, DX10 wont be ajything like the change form DX7-8, or 8-9b or 9b-9c.

Afraid from the developer note's I've read this isn't true. DX 10 introduces Geometry, Vertex and Fragment shaders - the details for what Geometry shaders will allow for isn't 100% but from what I've seen looks like improved gemoetry instancing for sub-division and other level-of-detail systems. Plus Dx10 brings the end of the fixed function pipeline.

GOCP

times_champion · 19 Jan 2006 at 18:57

I see DX10 and vista as a real way for PC gaming to overtake consoles as within a year the PC world will have superior technology to the 360 and PS3, both of which will have a minimum of 4 years shelf life left.

ethan · 19 Jan 2006 at 19:39

"I see DX10 and vista as a real way for PC gaming to overtake consoles as within a year the PC world will have superior technology to the 360 and PS3, both of which will have a minimum of 4 years shelf life left."

Would it be worth changing your current dx9 card then for a new dx10 one if there isn't any games 2 support it?

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