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Fermi launch prediction

straxusii

straxusii

straxusii

Soldato
Joined
18 May 2003
Posts
4,894
I've just looked into my crystal ball, this is what will be:

Nvidia launch 470 and 480 on March 26th, literally 10s of cards are available worldwide at a price point of £350/£450 respectively.

Initial review sites that have hardware run Nvidia dictated tests which show Fermi to perform a little better than expected due to the slanted benchmarks, these sites are informed they should stress Fermi performance in dedicated tessellation tests proves it is the clear long term winner over ATI.

Rage ensues in the forums for a few days.

The independent review sites get Fermi cards and the proper benchmarks begin which show Fermi as expected: 470 ~5% less than 5870, 480 ~5% better than 5870.

The Nvidia marketing machine engages in their most important offensive since the 5800 Ultra citing Physx, 3d vision and tessellation performance as the be all and end all.

Rage ensues in the forum as people realise the fermi launch wont reduce ATI prices.

ATI announce the 5890 which beats the GTX480 by ~5-10% and weighs in at £350-£400


Am I right or am I right ? :D
 
Don't believe ATI will need a 5890 anytime soon, they have the 5970 which IMO will easily out do the 480, and I believe the initial 480 pricing will be in the same range as the 5970.
 
RavenXXX2 said:
Don't believe ATI will need a 5890 anytime soon, they have the 5970 which IMO will easily out do the 480, and I believe the initial 480 pricing will be in the same range as the 5970.
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Ah yes but they will want the single GPU crown if they can have it, they won't miss the palpable chance they have to crush Nvidia
 
You forgot the spike in sales of the 5850 after people realise that it can be OC'ed to similar speeds as the GTX480 for 1/2 the price!
 
What a time to release cards tbh, i heard there prices are increaseing by a few %?

i predict high end cards 26th march, then budget or smaller cards around april/may time.
 
Two minor differences as I see it, Fermi will end up being £400/£550 or so with price gouging, maybe even £600, the 480gtx will never appear in stock in stores, except on the release to sell day. IE they'll paper launch, then say they can only be sold on date X, that day a few places will have stock but will sell out immediately, you'll never see another 480gtx again.

470gtx will increase due to stocks, AMD pricing won't move an inch though a couple weeks later a 5890 will launch, replacing the 5870 at £300, with the 5870 moving down to £250.
 
I'm hoping the launch pushes ATI prices down a bit as I'm going to be in the market for a top end card come pay day.
 
Y'know we should have a thread where we keep track of predictions forum goers make just for a laugh. We could call it the hardware bookies or something.

Anyway, my predictions are as follows:

The GTX 480 and 470 are released at approximately £500 and £370 respectively including VAT. Review sites show the GTX 480 to be approximately 20% faster than the 5870 excluding some benchmarks where Nvidia always do well in, where the 470 overall will look to be about equal to the 5870 - the big difference being that the new Fermi cards utterly crush the older GTX 200 series in games that use PhysX where the GTX 480 is around twice as fast (or more) as the GTX 285. Some will be outraged by the price, whilst some will justify the price (after having bought 3 of the things) citing exclusive features and how they're priced relative to the GTX 200 series cards. The ratio swings heavily in favour of the former camp, however, and Nvidia drops the price by about £100 on the 480 and £50 on the 470 about a month after launch.
 
drunkenmaster said:
Two minor differences as I see it, Fermi will end up being £400/£550 or so with price gouging, maybe even £600, the 480gtx will never appear in stock in stores, except on the release to sell day. IE they'll paper launch, then say they can only be sold on date X, that day a few places will have stock but will sell out immediately, you'll never see another 480gtx again.

470gtx will increase due to stocks, AMD pricing won't move an inch though a couple weeks later a 5890 will launch, replacing the 5870 at £300, with the 5870 moving down to £250.
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i read it was 500$ not £500
 
I expect people to be continuously pressing F5 awaiting the cards being put up.
When they are put up there will be hundreds of angry posts saying "I'm not paying that", "Rip off Britain" , etc...

It'll be swings and roundabouts between NV/ATI in benchmarks.
Power consumption will be epic.
 
Emlyn_Dewar said:
I expect people to be continuously pressing F5 awaiting the cards being put up.
When they are put up there will be hundreds of angry posts saying "I'm not paying that", "Rip off Britain" , etc...

It'll be swings and roundabouts between NV/ATI in benchmarks.
Power consumption will be epic.
Click to expand...

The biggest problem is it shouldn't be swings and roundabouts, there aren't a huge number of times the 4870 was smashed by the 280gtx, but there were a few, but it was very rare, very very rare for the 4870 to actually beat the 280gtx, and quite often it was a good 20% behind, though often no real playable difference 80fps vs 100fps.

Fermi shouldn't be close, its 60% bigger, with 60% more transistors, it should be 60% faster. THe cores are costing Nvidia about 1000% more to make than a 5870 core, it doesn't matter if its 200% faster, they'll lose money on it for the amount they can make and what they can sell it at.

The fact that its likely to be far far closer to the 5870 than it should be, just makes it even more funny, its a bad card at 25% faster than the 5870, its a not great card at 60% faster(due to yields and lack of profit for the company selling them) and at 0-10% faster its the biggest disaster in Nvidia's history(well since they got the gf256 going back in the day, they had a couple big mishaps before then). The 5800(Nvidia's one several years ago ;) ) was bad, but was quickly turned into the 5900, they have zero chance of doing that on Fermi.

There is no question at all, Fermi sucks, the question is, how bad will it suck, and, depending on how bad it sucks, will Nvidia price them competitively for the performance, just so they can sell a few, so it might turn out okay for a handful of people that can get them. IT will always be a complete failure for Nvidia, the business, as a profitable manufacturable available product.
 
It really has more like 48% more transistors. And even then if you go by the ever-more heurstic 'Gelsinger's law', 100% more transistors is 40% faster, 20% faster is about right really.
 
Are they really going to launch before they can build the cards ? Surly retailers are not going to give and take orders for something that does not exist.
 
It's getting very boring now. Someone just make me a card for £130-180 that's a good step up from a GTX 260 and DX11. I don't care who.
 
Lightnix said:
It really has more like 48% more transistors. And even then if you go by the ever-more heurstic 'Gelsinger's law', 100% more transistors is 40% faster, 20% faster is about right really.
Click to expand...

But the core is 60% larger and supposedly more advanced than ATI's. It should be something around 50% faster than a 5870. Or at least have the potential to be.
 
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