Fixtures for the Coming Season

[Tombstone]

Announced this morning at 9am.

I bet that one of the newly promoted teams (probably Blackpool) will start the season against one of the "big 4" so that there is a nice TV game to show. Always seems to happen.

 

[Tombstone]

Ah there we go...

Man Utd v Newcastle
Chelsea v West Brom

2 promoted ones against big teams.

Nice opening day game though between Liverpool v Arsenal. Rough start for whoever is new Liverpool manager

 

[Tombstone]

Sat - 14th Aug 10
15:00 Liverpool vs Arsenal
15:00 Blackpool vs Wigan
15:00 Bolton vs Fulham
15:00 Wolverhampton vs Stoke
15:00 Man Utd vs Newcastle
15:00 Aston Villa vs West Ham
15:00 Blackburn vs Everton
15:00 Chelsea vs West Brom
15:00 Sunderland vs Birmingham
15:00 Tottenham vs Man City

Sat - 21st Aug 10
15:00 Fulham vs Man Utd
15:00 Arsenal vs Blackpool
15:00 Man City vs Liverpool
15:00 West Brom vs Sunderland
15:00 Newcastle vs Aston Villa
15:00 West Ham vs Bolton
15:00 Birmingham vs Blackburn
15:00 Wigan vs Chelsea
15:00 Stoke vs Tottenham
15:00 Everton vs Wolverhampton

Sat - 28th Aug 10
15:00 Man Utd vs West Ham
15:00 Bolton vs Birmingham
15:00 Tottenham vs Wigan
15:00 Liverpool vs West Brom
15:00 Sunderland vs Man City
15:00 Wolverhampton vs Newcastle
15:00 Aston Villa vs Everton
15:00 Blackburn vs Arsenal
15:00 Chelsea vs Stoke
15:00 Blackpool vs Fulham

 

[Tombstone]

That's because there's a ridiculously high probabilty of it happening! Strewth, I'm sure I worked this out last season because people always go "Oh fancy that, one of three teams playing one of another four teams, who'd have thought it!?" It's like an over 50% chance of happening.

Over 50%? Really?

I am pretty decent at Maths but got to admit its pretty astonishing that its over a 50% chance of it happening. Care to enlighten me as to the working out of it being higher than 50% chance?

EDIT : trying to figure this out quickly myself...

20 teams in the league, 3 newly promoted...

1st newly promoted one has 19 possible opponents (2 of which are the other newly promoted teams). Big 4 would then equate to a 4 in 19 chance. (roughly 20%)

Assuming that the first newly promoted didnt get a big 4 team, the 2nd newly promoted team would have 17 possible opponents (1 of which is another newly promoted team) , Big 4 would then equate to 4 in 17 chance. (roughly 25%)

Assuming that the second newly promoted also didnt get a big 4 team, the 3rd newly promoted team would have 15 possible opponents (none of which is another newly promoted team) , Big 4 would then equate to 4 in 15 chance (just under 25%)

Admittedly its early and I am doing that quickly while at work, but doesnt seem like its over 50% to me. Look forward to seeing it properly though cause over 50% is pretty good.

 

[Tombstone]

Very very roughly:

Let's say (A) is a relegated team drawing a top 4 team, and (B) is them not (and assume for now they don't draw one another).

First relegated team draws: (A) is 20% (or so), (B) is 80%. Simple enough right?

But for the second, the 25% of (A) only matters if you get (B) for the first. so really, it's 25% of 80 (20). Which means the probably of (A) for either 1 or 2 is 40%.

Same for the third. 25% of 60% is 15.

20 + 20 + 15 = 55%

The long method of doing it involves actually working out (A1) OR (A2) OR (A3) (I think), but I can't remember offhand how to do that.

So despite the 3rd having 15 teams to pick from, 4 of which are the big 4. (4 out of 15 possibles) its still 55% chance? Even though there are 15 possible outcomes for the opponent? It makes sense to me if there are only 8 teams to pick from , 4 of which are the big 4...as that would then be 4 out of 8.

Bit like this...

G = green , r = red.

GGGGGGGGGGGRRRR

If I have to pick one of those 15, is it a 55% chance that I would pick R? Or would that require it to look like this...

GGGGGGGRRRRRRRR

 

[Tombstone]

No, it's a 55% chance when you combine them all together. You're only interested in the 3rd outcome if the two before have already failed to produce the result you wanted! So it's not a completely independent 25%.

Why arent they independent? Surely the 3rd newly promoted one has 15 teams that they could draw (assuming the first 2 didnt get a big 4 team...if they did then they would actually have even lower chance as the big 4 would then be a big 3 or big 2). Surely at the end of the day its 4 in 15 chance of getting one of the big 4?

15 possible teams that they could be drawn against, 4 of which are the big 4. 4 in 15?

Or if one of the other 2 had drawn a big 4 already...then 3 in 15.

Or if both had drawn big 4 opponents already ..then 2 in 15.

Still trying to figure out why a 4 in 15 chance is 55%. Surely 55% would be an 8 in 15 chance?

 

[Tombstone]

*Smacks head*

If one of the other 2 have drawn a top 4 side you don't care because ONE OF THE OTHER TWO HAS DRAWN A TOP 4 SIDE.

So surely in that case its a simple straight forward 4 in 19 chance?

Sorry if my intellect is not as great as yours and is causing you to have to smack your oh so superior head...I am simply trying to figure out how a 4 in 19, or 4 in 17 or 4 in 15 chance works out as 55%. Just seems to me that it would have to be an 8 in 15 chance in order to be 55%. (or 9 in 17 , or 10 in 19)


EDIT : Rather than further polluting the thread I will pop down to the Maths faculty where I work and ask one of the Professors there to explain to me why its a 55% of getting one of the big 4. Perhaps they can explain it in a way I can understand and it saves you any further cranial damage

 

[Tombstone]

**** me the football season is months away and we already have people arguing, grow a pair

Discussion where two people have differing opinions does not necessarily equal argument, though I can understand how the conflict obsessed internet crowd might see it that way.

(though admittedly its semantics about when a discussion becomes a debate becomes an argument)