Football betting - Asian Handicap Model

[jupiter_man]

A few friends and me have studied past 10 years of major European football odds and below are our predictions for this weekend

These are all Asian Handicap prediction

Bayern Munich -1.5 Win full bet
Real Madrid -2.5
Sampdoria +1.25
Malaga +2.5 Win full bet
Chievo Verona +0.25
Burnley +0.25 Win full bet
Cardiff +0.25 Win full bet
Inter Milan -0.75


Small explanation for Asian Handicap
Different to normal Win / Draw / Lose, Asian Handicap looks at the result from a different point of view

For example, Bayern Munich -1.5 = Before the Game start, the score is:
Bayern Munich -1.5 vs 0
If it ends at 0:0, that means -1.5 : 0, then bayern lose
If Bayern wins by 1 goal, which is 1:0, then the result will be -0.5 : 0, then bayern lose
If Bayern wins by 2 goals, which is 2:0, then the result will be 0.5 : 0, then bayern WINS


More can be explained by checking out below link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_handicap

 

[jupiter_man]

interesting, you've built a model just based on historical odds? Or other parameters too?

how some this got moved to sports when there is a matched betting thread in GD?

we constantly updating it and calculate the relationship between the odds and the team characteristics / style / level etc.


I am no idea...I thought GD is better for betting rather than here

 

[jupiter_man]

im very confused

Check the wiki links above you may get a better understanding

For example, today you believe man city will have a big win, but the 'Man City Win' odds is only 1.2 , it is so low there is no point to bet on it.
Chelsea win today is only 1.33, you need to bet big in order to earn more, they have just lost to Crystal Palace for 1:2, people who bet Chelsea will have a big lost.

If you believe they will win by 2 goals or more, then you can go for Man City -1.5 asian handicap, that will give you much better odds.

 

[jupiter_man]

are you betting the same amount on each pick or do you vary your wagers - according to some criteria, Kelly etc..

yes I am betting exactly the same amount each time because football is football, like both Chelsea + Liverpool lost today

Malaga just won as well.
And Bale just scored!!!

 

[jupiter_man]

Doing well so far, 3 out of 3 that are finished, and the Malaga one is currently winning at HT.

I quite like betting using the Asian Handicap, I've had a couple of small accumulators come off using this method.

Yes today is a very good day
Asian Handicap is the main trend of betting in Asia, just not sure why it is not that popular in the UK. People here prefer goal scorer / scoreline etc but these are very very hard to bet

Like what I replied to above, this model work best if you bet the exact same amount every time. DO NOT ALL IN.