Forecast the future

[Burnsy2023]

So this is inspired by a podcast I listened to recently about competitions where people predict future events.

On 1st January 2018 at 00:00 what will the world look like?

1. Who will be the current President of the United States of America?

2. Will Jeremy Corbyn still be labour leader? Yes/No

3. Will David Cameron still be the leader of the Conservative party? Yes/No

4. Will the UK have voted to leave the EU in a referendum? Yes/No

5. Will the UK still be a member of the EU? Yes/No

6. What will the price of futures in Brent Crude oil? Prices will be in $10 ranges, i.e $30.00 to $39.99 rounded to the nearest two decimal points in USD. If anyone posts a single number, that will be regarded as the lower bound.

Only your first answers will count and you must answer all questions. We'll take a look in two years time and see who got them all right (if any). Yes/No questions must be answered with either a simple yes or no.

My answers:
1. Hillary Clinton
2. Yes
3. Yes
4. No
5. Yes
6. $60-$69 USD

 

[Burnsy2023]

Why is question 5 definitely a Yes/No... why is the OP's opinion/view final on that? If we vote 'Yes' to leave there will be a process where we're in the middle of leaving... it isn't necessarily binary we're in at the moment at some point we could be out and in between that, well there could be a more ambiguous arrangement for a period

The question is specifically designed to be black and white to avoid confusion when it comes to revisiting the thread. You're either right or you're not.

If you want to take part n my thread you need to abide by my rules, it's really that simple.

 

[Burnsy2023]

OK but in order to make it black and white can you define exactly at what point you'd consider us to be out of the EU if we chose to leave? I mean if we stopped sending MEPs to the parliament but were still party to certain agreements, free movement, EU rules etc.. while negotiations carried on?

Do you suppose that one day we're in and the next we're out or something?

Ok, that's a better question. I can work with that. I would define membership as still being subject to all the current EU treaties and being considered a full member by the EU itself.

 

[Burnsy2023]

what if we're considered a part member/hybrid situation but the EU - neither out nor in... I'm not nit picking... if we vote Yes then negotiations will take a few years and a hybrid situation is quite likely

Would the EU consider us still a full member at that point in time? This is a question about how long you think negotiations would take just as much as anything else.