Poll: General election voting round 5 (final one)

[D.P.]

So, Miliband won't do any sort of deal with the SNP even if that hands victory to the Tories. Way to go Ed, your party in Scotland is officially dead.

He knws he doesn't need an offiial deal.

The SNP's options are:
1) Vote yes to a Tory multi-coalition government with polar opposite ideologies.
2) Vote yes to a Labour minority (possible Labour-LD coalition) and block the 2) Tories, putting Miliband in #10
3)Vote no to Labour and Tories, forcing a re-election where the Tories will almost certainly do much better and the SNP can't possibly do any better (since they will win almost if not every seat).
4) Mosses' suggestion that they form some kind of coaliton with the Tories where the SNP gets devolution-max. But this is a deal with the devil, and the Tories are seen to help break up the union.
5) Remote chance the Tories and Labour form a grand coalition to ensure a stable government. It is irrelevant what SNP says.



Milliband is likely betting on outcome 2 because not saying yes to Labour is almost invariably worse for the SNP. I can't imaine 4 being a possibility, the SNP's will demand a referendum and a host of other thigns that the Tories just wont be willing to give in to just for the sake of being in power for 5 years. The Tories best bet is a re-election, they will have much higher odds of wining a second election, not least all the small parts will completely struggle

That is the point that some people don't seem to realize, Milliband doesn't have to say a word to the SNP but still indirectly will have the SNP on their side under most circumstances

 

[D.P.]

Postal Vote posted. Let's see what mess we end up with.

I fear disruption over the next few years.

It will be interesting that is for sure. A few things that are almost certain come May 7th:

• There will be no single party majority
• The only possible 2 party coalition majority is Labour-SNP, and that is off the cards.
• Multi-party coalitions almost certainly wont hit a majority. The most likely by the numbers is Labour+SNP+LibDems, but that is off the cards and can be ignored. The chance of Tories+LibDems+UKIP+DUP are extremely remote, and LibDems have refused to work with UKIP and likely DUP. It is also not clear the libDems will be able to go into coalition with he Tories, their party will implode.
• There is no real historic precedent, he rules are complex, and there are a lot of myths that are wrong. E.g., the party with the most seats has no priority in forming a government despite what many would suggest. Having the most seats is no guarantee of anything unless you have a majority. Also, you don't need a majority of seats to form the next government, you just need a to pass the vote of confidence which be done if other parties, e.g. SNP< vote in favor.

 

[the_r_sole]

It will be interesting that is for sure. A few things that are almost certain come May 7th:

• The only possible 2 party coalition majority is Labour-SNP, and that is off the cards.

do people actually believe this?

get a grip folks - politicians will be clambering over themselves to get a sniff of power, just because you've said something before the election doesn't mean anything once your vote's been cast when you are in politics!

 

[covenantuk]

It's Moses. I haven't said to do it in the form of a coalition. And it's not about 'breaking up the union', it's about sticking to promises which were labelled 'the vow'..

That's naive. Of course it's about breaking up the union. The SNP are pushing for another referendum and their whole rhetoric is designed to antagonise the rest of the UK in pursuit of this. If they get Devo-Max then another referendum really WILL be off the table for at least a generation and they are faced with having to prove they can govern with full financial control and no-one else to pin the blame on at the same time as record low income from oil revenue. Risky and pushes independence timespan out to decades, if at all.

Independence is the SNP's whole game. If they admit defeat on that then they risk support drifting away over time. They'll ally with Miliband.

Cameron's only hope is both winning more marginals and Labour losing more seats in the North than predicted.

 

[AGD]

The SNP will have to back labour or risk the tories getting in. Milliband holds the power and he knows it.

 

[SciNeT]

The Tories best bet is a re-election, they will have much higher odds of wining a second election, not least all the small parts will completely struggle

Why do you say this? I don't dispute it, just interested in your reasoning.

 

[D.P.]

It's Moses. I haven't said to do it in the form of a coalition. And it's not about 'breaking up the union', it's about sticking to promises which were labelled 'the vow'.

OK, it is not a coalition in a formal sense but a complete restructure of the UK political and legal system to give much more powers to Scotland

And you missed out the option of abstaining when it comes to a vote of confidence in a Tory+ government.

This is effectively the same as as saying yes to the Tories because without the SNP voting no then the Tories get a majority, especially if it i a Tory+LibDem coalition.

So why do you think the SNP will abstain?

 

[the_r_sole]

That's naive. Of course it's about breaking up the union. The SNP are pushing for another referendum and their whole rhetoric is designed to antagonise the rest of the UK in pursuit of this. If they get Devo-Max then another referendum really WILL be off the table for at least a generation and they are faced with having to prove they can govern with full financial control and no-one else to pin the blame on. Risky and pushes independence timespan out to decades, if at all.

Independence is the SNP's whole game. If they admit defeat on that then they risk support drifting away over time.

when exactly have they been pressing for another referendum?! Have you listened to anything they have been saying? Are you talking about the same rhetoric which has seen sturgeon gain big support following the debates?!
I honestly think I must have been watching a different election campaign here.

(just to clairfy again, I'm not and never have been an snp voter)

 

[covenantuk]

Some sound analysis.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gen...ore-than-Nick-Cleggs-tuition-fee-promise.html

 

[D.P.]

Why do you say this? I don't dispute it, just interested in your reasoning.

The Big parties will always do better in a re-election for many reasons. Small parties just wont have the resources or money to keep canvasing, doing the ground work. More over, people will be much more likely to vote for the big 2 in order to avoid another hung parliament, e.g. UKIP voters will move back to the Tories, green voters will move back to labour.

The reason the Tories will do better is they will get a much bigger share of the UKIP voters. Furthermore, if the tories get more seats than labour, say 285 to Labour's 270 then labour have a strong message that only they can become a majority, so marginal labour-tory voters will swing to the Tories more.

i have read other analysts suggest other reasons but can't remember them all at this time. I think it is also the case that the Tories have more money and wealthier funders so they can plow more money into the next election than Labour could, which should see them gain some marginal labour seats.
Also if the economy keeps growing then they can make more BS claims about their fiscal responsibility.

It isn't a guarantee but if the Tories have an option of letting Labour win or forcing a re-election they will choose the latter because they have good odds of winning a re-election. A deal with the SNP could easily be worse than a reelection for them.

 

[D.P.]

do people actually believe this?

get a grip folks - politicians will be clambering over themselves to get a sniff of power, just because you've said something before the election doesn't mean anything once your vote's been cast when you are in politics!

As a coalition I think labour-SNP is zero chance after what Milliband has said. The chances of some kind of confidence deal I think is still there despite what Milliband said. But as discussed above, if the SNP don't vote yes to Labour there is a very high chance that the Tories will get in, which is liekly highly damaging for the SNP.

It is really a game of poker. Labour are going to try and make it without any formal arrangement with the SNP, but Milliband's confidence that the shared desire to block the Tories will see him as prime minister.

 

[SciNeT]

The Big parties will always do better in a re-election for many reasons. Small parties just wont have the resources or money to keep canvasing, doing the ground work. More over, people will be much more likely to vote for the big 2 in order to avoid another hung parliament, e.g. UKIP voters will move back to the Tories, green voters will move back to labour.

The reason the Tories will do better is they will get a much bigger share of the UKIP voters. Furthermore, if the tories get more seats than labour, say 285 to Labour's 270 then labour have a strong message that only they can become a majority, so marginal labour-tory voters will swing to the Tories more.

i have read other analysts suggest other reasons but can't remember them all at this time. I think it is also the case that the Tories have more money and wealthier funders so they can plow more money into the next election than Labour could, which should see them gain some marginal labour seats.
Also if the economy keeps growing then they can make more BS claims about their fiscal responsibility.

It isn't a guarantee but if the Tories have an option of letting Labour win or forcing a re-election they will choose the latter because they have good odds of winning a re-election. A deal with the SNP could easily be worse than a reelection for them.

Interesting stuff.

 

[Dave]

So, anyone for a left-field coalition of Conservatives + Labour? I like to think that all of the talk at the moment of possible coalitions is a smoke-screen for a Con-Lab coalition (this may not be entirely serious)

 

[D.P.]

It depends how they are funded. Eg. the Tories could do okay, but Labour would find it difficult to find the money... then UKIP has rich folk who might stump up the wedges of cash they'd need, as they have done before... then the SNP have those fat Euromillions couple who'd probably give them a load of cash. Then the Greens can obviously focus their spending on a few seats, so the money they'd need to find to fight for winnable seats wouldn't be huge.



That's just a guess/assertion from you, right? Unless you can evidence that from polling on that issue? And I don't think it's as clear as that - eg. some UKIP people might move back to Tory if their seat was 36% Lab 35% Tory and 15% UKIP.... but if it was 50.5% Tory and 49.5% UKIP they might stick with UKIP. It'd largely depend on constituency outcome and even loads of switchers might not change much across lots of the country given the number of marginals vs the number of seats overall.

No, I am just re-iterating what I have read other analysts and professionals report, which is the only things I have been saying in all these threads. Whenever you disagree with my posts you are NOT disagreeing with my opinions but with other experts. I don't have a degree in political science, I just read what the experts have to say on such matters.

 

[deuse]

For those that missed it, here's Nigel Farage's programme last night

If you watched last night QT then you owe it to yourself to watch this too for balance if anything

That was good. And seeing someone give a honest answer is like a breath of fresh air.

 

[McGray]

Real meeting of minds there.

 

[Schlong&Stable]

No, I am just re-iterating what I have read other analysts and professionals report, which is the only things I have been saying in all these threads. Whenever you disagree with my posts you are NOT disagreeing with my opinions but with other experts. I don't have a degree in political science, I just read what the experts have to say on such matters.

No, we are disagreeing with your understanding of the 'experts' you've selected, ignoring those who may not agree with your balmy world view.

 

[AGD]

Some sound analysis.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gen...ore-than-Nick-Cleggs-tuition-fee-promise.html

Sound really bad analysis (by a completely discredited, advertiser-run newspaper I might add). If the SNP abstained on a Tory queen's speech, the Scots would never forgive them. The SNP would definitely work with a minority Labour government.

 

[ubersonic]

[*]The only possible 2 party coalition majority is Labour-SNP, and that is off the cards.

Going off current forecasts LabSNP would fall short, they would also need either the LibDems or the Greens+Plaid on board.

 

[do_ron_ron]

That's naive. Of course it's about breaking up the union. The SNP are pushing for another referendum and their whole rhetoric is designed to antagonise the rest of the UK in pursuit of this.

Silly, silly tabloid rubbish. The SNP know they cannot succeed in another referendum for a number of years. Having another one so soon after the last one will only damage them. It is the Scottish people who decide in "breaking up the union", not the SNP. Most Scots wanted Devo-Max and it was Cameron's folly that he rejected this option. From his viewpoint he could have dragged out the negotiations for years before offering anything.

If they get Devo-Max then another referendum really WILL be off the table for at least a generation and they are faced with having to prove they can govern with full financial control and no-one else to pin the blame on at the same time as record low income from oil revenue. Risky and pushes independence timespan out to decades, if at all.

Yes, which is why it was folly to reject it in the ballot. Plus there is no agreement for what constitutes Devo-Max so arguments over exact powers would be given would take ages ... booted into the long grass as politicians would say.

Independence is the SNP's whole game. If they admit defeat on that then they risk support drifting away over time. They'll ally with Miliband.

No, independence is the SNP's ultimate goal not their whole game. It is the tabloid press and other's folly in not seeing the difference.

Cameron's only hope is both winning more marginals and Labour losing more seats in the North than predicted.

Clegg may have problems though getting back in bed with the Tories.