Poll: General election voting round 5 (final one)

Voting intentions in the General Election?

  • Alliance Party of Northern Ireland

    Votes: 3 0.3%

  • Conservative

    Votes: 403 42.2%

  • Democratic Unionist Party

    Votes: 2 0.2%

  • Green Party

    Votes: 59 6.2%

  • Labour

    Votes: 176 18.4%

  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 67 7.0%

  • Not voting/will spoil ballot

    Votes: 42 4.4%

  • Other party (not named)

    Votes: 8 0.8%

  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 1 0.1%

  • Respect Party

    Votes: 1 0.1%

  • Scottish National Party

    Votes: 37 3.9%

  • Social Democratic and Labour Party

    Votes: 1 0.1%

  • Sinn Fein

    Votes: 2 0.2%

  • UKIP

    Votes: 154 16.1%
  • Total voters
    956
  • Poll closed .
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lovelyhead said:
The Lib Dems and Labour alone wouldn't have enough seats to outvote the Tories. Going by the latest polls the SNP and Labour would.

Labour will need the SNP support 100% of the time that the Tories vote against Labour policy. Labour and the Lib Dems alone wouldn't be enough.

End result, concessions coming to Scotland.
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Latest forecast has them short.
 
D.P. said:
They have slipped less than UKIP.
UKIP have slipped from 18% to 12.5%, greens from around 7% to 5%. The Greens a polling higher now than this time last year, the UKIP is polling lower than this time last year.
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12.5? BBC have them at 13, and some poll trackers slightly higher.

18 - 13 is a 28% slip
7 - 5 is a 29% slip

So they've slipped the same in relative numbers. I think the polls will be less accurate than 5 years ago anyway.
 
satchef1 said:
It's funny, isn't it? Five years ago we were blaming the bankers and the super-rich for our troubles. Five years is all it has taken to move that anger to the poor, vulnerable and powerless. Five years of stories about the extreme of benefit cheats, used to justify cuts that have left many in poverty.

I'm all for clamping down on benefit cheats, on reducing the ridiculous benefit incomes of those at the extreme, but the welfare system needs to be there for those that need it.
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I think it was more of a Tory tactic relentlessly regurgitated by the media. One tactic that has been used numerous times past and present is that the poor are to blame for being poor, it is their fault and they should be punished for their 'lack of effort/laziness'. The Tories have taken the usual targets and expanded them to include almost everyone. Divide and rule. The trouble with this tactic is that it assumes a life of it's own that cannot be controlled.
One example of the above was over-large families. The tabloids had a field day venting their bile. You got the impression it was a massive problem with many thousands of cases. A question in the Commons asked what were the numbers, the answer(very large families) - 2, large families - 7.

Of course the real reason for the various problems are, of course, MPs.

The crash - lack of financial regulation - culprits - both parties going back to 'the big bang'. Something Ken Clarke admitted on TV two budgets ago.
Housing - Selling of council houses and not building others - culprits - both parties.
Education - various ministers with their pet theories and need to be seen to be doing something - both parties.

MPs will never say they screwed it up so they blame others.
 
Sliver said:
I disagree. The current 'coalition', and I use that term loosely, is almost entirely dominated by the Tory party. The Lib Dems are simply window dressing with little power to effect any policies that the Tory party want to implement. So if Labour got in bed with the SNP, the same would be true for that marriage of inequality.
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Exactly, which is what I have been saying for a while. The SNP are more dependant on Labour than vice versa.
 
delta0 said:
Con and lib will have similar number of seats as lab and SNP. So doesn't matter if lab and SNP don't support. They will need to outnumber Con, Lib, DUP, UUP and UKIP which is literally a hairline of difference in total seats.
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If you think a 5-way coalition amongst those parties is even remotely doable you are completely off your tree.

The baseline to avoid a Queens Speech being voted down will be Labour+SNP block vote, which based on the current forecasts looks to be around 320 seats (270+50), a hair short of a majority - both will always vote against the Tories so unless they can build a coalition that trumps that they are screwed. Given there is a decent chance Nick Clegg is going to lose his seat (along with quite a few other Liberals), the idea of another centre-right coalition is already running on fumes for the Tories. UKIPs projected 1 seat isn't going to help much either.

Its highly likely (check the bookies) it will either be a Labour minority government or a month of squabbling followed by another election.

http://electionforecast.co.uk/
 
lovelyhead said:
That won't happen unless 66% of MP's vote against the government in a no confidence vote.

That would require all the Tories, the SNP, smaller parties and maybe even some Labour MP's to vote against the government.

Not going to happen.

Labour are going to be in power for the next 5 years with the SNP pulling the strings! Lovely Jubbly!
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Politicians want power which is why Ed will grab whatever comes his way. The SNP will not be pulling the strings, you only need to look at the last five years. Cameron has not been Clegg's puppet. Nothing will change with a new coalition/agreement/whatever, the large party are always in charge.
 
do_ron_ron said:
Politicians want power which is why Ed will grab whatever comes his way. The SNP will not be pulling the strings, you only need to look at the last five years. Cameron has not been Clegg's puppet. Nothing will change with a new coalition/agreement/whatever, the large party are always in charge.
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Given the SNP electorate is basically the old Scottish Labour electorate, their only real option is to vote along with Labour (they will probably try it on a few times, but the first moment of possible government collapse bringing the Tories back in would ruin them for a generation).

You will probably see their one 'red line' being Trident, which they know they can confidently vote against as the Tories will always help push it through instead.
 
delta0 said:
It is unlikely SNP and Lab will have enough for majority. It will come down to a few seats and basically who gets the most. Con, Lib, DUP, UUP and UKIP will vote together if they have 322 between them. If not then Lab, Lib, SNP will get the chance. The default will be the former and if that is not possible then the latter.
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Lib dems won't join any coalition with the DUP or UKIP. So it has to be cons and lib dems getting 323 seats, which is unlikely at the current polls.
Even just the Tories is debatable, I know Clegg suggests they will but most of the party absolutely don't want that.
 
delta0 said:
Con and lib will have similar number of seats as lab and SNP. So doesn't matter if lab and SNP don't support. They will need to outnumber Con, Lib, DUP, UUP and UKIP which is literally a hairline of difference in total seats.
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You are ignoring greens, the welsh party I can never spell :p, and SDLP.

The anti-Tory bloc should outnumber the anti-labour bloc, this is especially true if the lib dems form a coalition with labour.
And for Moses, that data comes from may2015.com that have a good analysis of the labour-Tory spilt and the challenge Cameron has to win. A lot of things have to go very very well for the Tories without loosing any marginal seats, labour mostly just has to not be very very unlucky.
 
Judgeneo said:
12.5? BBC have them at 13, and some poll trackers slightly higher.

18 - 13 is a 28% slip
7 - 5 is a 29% slip

So they've slipped the same in relative numbers. I think the polls will be less accurate than 5 years ago anyway.
Click to expand...

The poll of polls I used had them at 12.4 and 12.6 the last 2 days.

UKIP has lost far more voters than the greens have, which is the only thing that matter.

And if you are going to do some kind of proportional calculation you will need to be much precise, these figures are rounded. E.g. Green might have been 6.7% and now 5.4%.
 
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D.P. said:
You are ignoring greens, the welsh party I can never spell :p, and SDLP.

The anti-Tory bloc should outnumber the anti-labour bloc, this is especially true if the lib dems form a coalition with labour.
And for Moses, that data comes from may2015.com that have a good analysis of the labour-Tory spilt and the challenge Cameron has to win. A lot of things have to go very very well for the Tories without loosing any marginal seats, labour mostly just has to not be very very unlucky.
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At the moment it is very borderline. Conservatives with 283 will put them on track for minority government with lib. That is likely but not certain to happen.
 
delta0 said:
At the moment it is very borderline. Conservatives with 283 will put them on track for minority government with lib. That is likely but not certain to happen.
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minority but not a majority it would be around 307-310 seats, compared to labour + SNP of 322-327

And 283 seats for the conservatives is on the high side of most predictions.
An average of 5 professional forecasts is 277 seats for the Conservatives and 269 for Labour. The Li Dems average 26.
However you can't add a LibDem average and a Tory average together since they are not exlcusive, polls that have the Tories doing better comes at the expense of the Lib dems, partially.


The Conservatives need to do very well, get very lucky in a lot of marginal Labour seats, prevent the UKIP getting more than about 1 seat. The Lib Dems then have to do very well in marginal Labour seats, and it would help with the SNP have to win every marginal labour seats.

That is possible but it isn't what the current predictions are. It is just easier for the Labour as long as the SNP vote yes to Labour and no to the Tories.

things have got slightly closer in the last 2 weeks though, a fortnight ago Labour was predicted to win more seats than the Tories. And part of the reason the Tories are gettign mroe seats is the UKIP vote is dropping:
http://may2015.com/featured/electio...e-polls-but-tied-with-labour-in-online-polls/
 
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D.P. said:
minority but not a majority it would be around 307-310 seats, compared to labour + SNP of 322-327

And 283 seats for the conservatives is on the high side of most predictions.
An average of 5 professional forecasts is 277 seats for the Conservatives and 269 for Labour. The Li Dems average 26.
However you can't add a LibDem average and a Tory average together since they are not exlcusive, polls that have the Tories doing better comes at the expense of the Lib dems, partially.


The Conservatives need to do very well, get very lucky in a lot of marginal Labour seats, prevent the UKIP getting more than about 1 seat. The Lib Dems then have to do very well in marginal Labour seats, and it would help with the SNP have to win every marginal labour seats.

That is possible but it isn't what the current predictions are. It is just easier for the Labour as long as the SNP vote yes to Labour and no to the Tories.

things have got slightly closer in the last 2 weeks though, a fortnight ago Labour was predicted to win more seats than the Tories. And part of the reason the Tories are gettign mroe seats is the UKIP vote is dropping:
http://may2015.com/featured/electio...e-polls-but-tied-with-labour-in-online-polls/
Click to expand...

It is about the middle. The high side have been 288. Middle about 280. Some of the seats switch between UKIP and con so it isn't quite as straight forward as putting one number down as a threshold. I think on the day labour and conservative will push towards upper end of their ranges.
 
Phreaky said:
Given the SNP electorate is basically the old Scottish Labour electorate, their only real option is to vote along with Labour (they will probably try it on a few times, but the first moment of possible government collapse bringing the Tories back in would ruin them for a generation).
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Assuming that Labour can form a government, the SNP can "try it on" as much as they like with no fear of bringing the government down.
 
People should also realise that the Labour party isnt cohesive, there are still some left of centre people that would happily vote with the SNP on killing certain things. (no party is really cohesive, though i would say perhaps the minor ones sorta have to be)

This isnt as clear cut as people think.
 
StriderX said:
People should also realise that the Labour party isnt cohesive, there are still some left of centre people that would happily vote with the SNP on killing certain things. (no party is really cohesive, though i would say perhaps the minor ones sorta have to be)

This isnt as clear cut as people think.
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Very true.

Here is Alex Salmond making this point. It also shows that the SNP have a game plan for getting the most out of the Labour party. The SNP is not going to be the Lib Dems MK2.

https://youtu.be/YeSCVhrliQc?t=10m6s
 
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