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How likely are 5000 series price drops?

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16 Jul 2009
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491
Having recently fudged my 5850 somehow while changing the cooler I've started thinking about its replacement. I know that price drops for the eol 5000 series will be largely dependent on what stock levels are like, but does anyone have an educated guess?

At the moment I think I would like to pick up a cheap 58xx and wait it out for the 7000 series. With the way the prices have gone so far I'm not going to hold my breath, but no harm in asking.

Thanks
 
I doubt they'll go down much until the 6 series comes out....... which isn't for a while. They're very popular cards, so I reckon they'll be around for a long time yet. Remember how ATI work, the release the flagship cards first, so the 5 series will become the mid-range cards until they can build mid-range 6 series cards.

If i were you I'd wait for a "this week only" and pick up another 5850. Either that or go green.
 
AMD launched the 5770 within a month or so, maybe even just a couple weeks of the 5870, and this time around the 6770 is likely to be the first card available, followed by the high end , followed by the low end, high end probably within a couple weeks of the 6770. Mid November at a guess for the 6870, couple weeks after that for a 6970 maybe, 6850 somewhere inbetween, the 6770 around the 25th of October with the launch on the 12th October.

It sounds, much like I guessed AMD are going for a roughly 400mm2 die, so a 15% increase, which is all you can go up before yields kick you in the crotch like the GF100(500mm2 and couldn't be sold at a profit at all). Redone uncore(rops, tmu's) to fill out a different shader, 4 medium complexity shaders vs 4 simple + 1 complex. Hardest stuff it has to do should be much faster as rather than 1600 shaders, of which 1280 were simple ones and 320 were "complex" ones, you'll now have all shaders able to do more complex things and simple things when thats all thats required. THe 4 new shaders are smaller than the 4+1 previous arrangement, but bigger than 4 of the simple shaders, but with a die size increase and some other die space improvements, 2000 would be a sensible number to aim for, but with better shaders and better optimised tmu's/rops to feed them.

Remember the 4xxx series cards were made on 55nm, the 5xxx series were made on 40nm and the 6xxx series will be on 40nm.

IE as production ramped up on the 5xxx series production was unaffected for the previous cards as they are made in a different building, the 6000 series cards will replace the 5 series and have almost certainly stopped production on almost everything 5000 series. I wouldn't expect stock to be around for long as the 4870-4350 were TINY cores, made in massive numbers, and still produced long after the new cards hit. 5xxx production essentially stopped a couple months ago most likely, they are much bigger with much lower volume production and they've been selling like hot cakes. Theres probably not a whole lot of cores left on shelves waiting to ship.

2nd hand market is probably the best place to look for a great 5xxx series deal as people dump them for 6870/6850's.
 
They will just EOL fermi and wait until March to get some cards out .:p

March? 28nm won't be in mass production till WELL into Q2 and Nvidia will be very unlikely to get anything out before late Q3, AMD will almost certainly beat Nvidia to 28nm cards anyway and will be competing with Nvidia's 1st 28nm card, with their own 28nm card, AMD's 6xxx series will be competing with GF104, which is slower than a 5850, until probably early Q3 next year at the VERy earliest.

I also find it quite funny you manage to mention the slim profits on 5xxx cards, yet have a go at others for mention Nvidia's lack of profit and how we can't possibly know how much it costs to make their cards. The fact they use the same plant, the same wafers at the same cost and every card they sell in any price range uses a larger lower yield core that costs more.

So you refuse to accept Nvidia is selling at cost, or even a loss, but AMD conversely have ZERO room to drop prices due to lack of profits. Despite the 460gtx being 10% bigger, 30% slower and costing 30% less than a 5850. If AMD can't drop the price on a 5850, how can you also claim no one could know if the 460gtx is being sold at cost/loss.
 
Sorry to interrupt this thread Bergkamp but I also have a 5850 and am seriously considering putting a Zalman VF3000-A cooler on it but I am more than a little worried by all the horror stories I have seen concerning replacement coolers for these cards resulting in them being bricked.
So a quick couple of questions..
Was it the Zalman cooler you fitted and do you have any idea what caused your card to die?
Thanks.
 
Defunkt, it was the vf3000 and I have no idea what exactly wrecked the card. Installed the cooler and put it back in the system and it just wouldn't POST. My asus board has that q-led or whatever it's called and it hung at the vga check. Wasn't aware of these horror stories before I got the cooler... What sort of thing was being reported?

By the way, thanks for all the other replies folks. Wasn't holding out much hope for big prices drops coming up to the 6000 release, so I'll just keep an eye on things and if nothing takes my fancy I'll wait and see what the new cards offer.
 
well i have read a lot of comments on various sites about this cooler killing cards the American newegg for 1 has plenty of complaints. (comments in the product section)
I put it down to bad application/heavy handedness by many to begin with but as it only seems to apply to people using the cooler on ATI cards and not nvidia having problems I have a feeling it's more to do with the 58XX being super fragile.
I don't think i'll bother trying it now. Hearing that it was the very same cooler you used is one bridge too far for me.
I'm sure it is possible to fit these coolers safely to ATI 58XX cards but it just isnt worth the risk to me.
 
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