Ice Lake Xeon delayed to 2021, likely that Alder Lake delayed to 2022 also

[g67575]

Ice lake is based on Intel's standard 10nm fab. process, which is used in Xeon server processors due to release in 2021. Originally, Intel's '2019 investor meeting' roadmaps showed Ice lake server processors releasing in 2020, and the Sapphire Rapids 10nm server processors releasing in 2021.

A recent Intel roadmap shows that Xeon Ice lake will actually release in 2021, and Xeon Sapphire Rapids in 2022 / 'the future'. Sapphire Rapids will use the same 10nm Enhanced SuperFin fab. process that Alder Lake will use, so I conclude that 10nm Alder Lake desktop CPUs will also be delayed until 2022. New server roadmap here:

All this is contrary to current rumours, which for some reason suggest a 2021 release for Alder Lake CPUs. Perhaps Intel is just trying to appease investors?

 

[g67575]

It's interesting though, because it means Intel's 7nm CPU generation almost certainly won't release until 2023, or, in my view 2024.

 

[g67575]

If Alder Lake is delayed till 2022 it will make an easy year for Zen 3+ refresh

I just checked AMD's net profit margin for Q4 2020 and they reported a net profit margin of 54.9%. This is a very large increase from previous quarters, which were between 9.07% - 13.92% in q1-q3 2021, and 3-5% in 2019.

Intel's net profit was just 29.32% in Q4 2020.

 

[g67575]

This is Xeons. So the AMD server chips based on zen3 Milans haven’t even been released yet.

I think AMD will struggle with supply of their Milan CPU due to the TSMC 7nm demand.

True, the Milan server CPUs are delayed, so no Genoa in 2021 either. Which probably means no major improvements to Ryzen CPUs either.

 

[g67575]

'Sunny Cove' (10nm+ Ice Lake) / 'Cypress Cove' (14nm backport) are the first major Intel CPU microarchitectures since Skylake (excluding the problematic 'Palm Cove' based Cannon Lake).

Rocket lake uses the 'Cypress Cove' core, which is basically a 10nm Ice Lake core, backported to 14nm. Like Ice Lake, the memory controller supports DDR4 3200mhz.

Because of the 'new' microarchitecture, which runs at higher clock rates than can be achieved on 10nm Ice Lake, I think it will be a significant improvement on the Skylake (released August, 2015!) based Comet Lake.

There were some early CPUz benchmarks showing Rocket Lake pulling ahead of the Ryzen 5800x, in a single threaded test.

I don't think AMD will allow their advantage to slip away, when Rocket Lake releases.

Intel microarchitecture info:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Intel_CPU_microarchitectures