Intel to skip 10nm and bring up 7?

[Orangey]

https://www.semiwiki.com/forum/content/4834-intel-skip-10nm-stay-ahead-tsmc-samsung.html

Intel 10nm Update
"The last thing I'd like to share with you is an update related to our 10-nanometer technology transition..."

BK did a nice job of spinning the 10nm delay in the prepared statement. In the Q&A however there was a more direct question and response:

"No, I'd call it similar to what happened on 14-nanometer. Remember, on all of these technologies, each one has its own recipe of complexity and difficulty, 14-nanometer to 10-nanometer same thing that happened from 22-nanometer to 14-nanometer."

One of the possible scenarios I see here is that Intel will improve the performance of 14nm (similar to what TSMC did with 16nm and 16FF+) and skip 10nm in favor of accelerating 7nm. This makes complete sense if Intel wants to maintain their process lead against TSMC and Samsung. It also makes sense if Intel wants to continue to cut expenses. Sound reasonable?

7nm is going to be ditching silicon in favour of a new compound called Indium Gallium Arsenide, which should/could allow for MUCH higher GHz. If this article is true it could only be a couple of years until MAJOR gains return.

 

[Orangey]

Note the "?" and "if"s

 

[Orangey]

I'd say 5 years before mass production, if everything goes to plan.

That's exactly it, 2017 for 10nm and the cadence is now 3 years between nodes so 2020 is what we are looking at. No need to guess.

The problem I think is getting chips bigger than 100mm2. In my view if a major change is needed to make finfets work at regular dimensions Intel might simply cancel 10nm and stop throwing good money after bad, plow that money into 7nm and dominate desktop/workstation/server for another 10 years.