Intel Xe GPU Speculation

[Troezar]

Given almost no mention of this on here I thought I'd make a thread for a bit speculation. I've just watched this video:

Now I'm sure there are plenty on here that don't like the channel but take it for what it is. It sounds like it could be Q1 22 and in decent volume priced to compete. All seems common sense being a new player and could be guessed at. That said anyone else considering Intel for a GPU if they're competitive?

Given their production capacity and track record of well validated hardware it could be a real boost to competition in the GPU market. That's coming from someone that's no fan of Intel's previous business practices.

If you find any other information on these cards please post it here.

 

[Troezar]

Thanks, I can see what I missed those, not really specific to the desktop GPU. No interest in integrated graphics and the other is generic speculation about an alternative to Nvidia and AND. I'd like to concentrate the info on DG2 specifically. Do you have any sources?

 

[Troezar]

Unfortunately I don't think intel are really there yet. They are being sensible and approaching this in steps. From what I hear now the performance is not expected to be anything like the 3070/3080, rather is aimed more at the low end.
NVIDIA should be seriously worried though. Intel is a very serious company and within a few years could offer some serious competition.

At least going by the video top end could be 3070Ti territory. Good enough for me, no change for the high end boys but the masses could definitely profit from a third player in the GPU market. I'll take well priced midrange over £1000 high end. As the year progresses I expect we'll get a clearer idea on how far they've come.

 

[Troezar]

The big threat from Intel is that they have their own fabs, right? The rest are left clamouring for time with TSMC or Samsung, while Intel can just allocate their own fab capacity as they need to fit demand. I know these first products are destined for TSMC but surely that's a huge advantage for them going forward in this supply:demand nightmare. Maybe the end of the current mining boom will blunt this somewhat.

I think this is underrated, capacity is a big issue and Intel have much more control of the whole process. I'm expecting them to capitalise on it, they could do with some good PR too after 14nm++++++++!

 

[Troezar]

I think 3070ti like performance, 16GB vram at 3070 price would tempt many people. It might work out as a blessing for those currently unable to get a gpu at a reasonable price if they have to carry on waiting

Yes I find it hilarious that we might be waiting for Intel to rescue us with affordable tech! As for their pedigree, I think Raja may be underestimated. He has been guilty of putting the cart before the horse but is well aware of what is required to be successful in the GPU market. I'm quietly confident they'll make a decent job of it and I'm quite an AMD fan.

 

[Troezar]

I just hope Intel does compete so it can drive down prices

I think we can all agree on that! A bit of a price war would be nice.

 

[Troezar]

My expectation is that it won't match 3070 in gaming performance. Driver maturity will be an issue, NV/AMD have a couple of decades under their belts in terms of tuning drivers for high end gaming parts. I honestly think people are kidding themselves if they expect it to compete at that sort of level, as we get closer to launch people will be looking at the hardware and making interpolations that get people's hopes up, but if people have such high expectations I reckon they will be sorely disappointed when the benchmarks on launch drivers hit.

I hope I'm proven wrong but that's just how I see it, you look back historically and drivers have always held back challengers to NV/3dfx and AMD/ATI, i.e. PowerVR, S3, Matrox etc had some really interesting technology but let down by naff drivers or lack of adoption by developers. Admittedly the adoption of generic APIs like DX12/Vulkan should made things easier for developers but there might be some optimisations in there for NV/ATI that won't have been made for Intel day1.

What Intel need to do is target the lower midrange segment, where the big boys aren't offering much of late, price competitively (their size and manufacturing capability can help here) and grab market share. This will in term give them a platform to build on in terms of polishing the drivers ahead of future releases perhaps targeted more at the upper midrange.

What we really need to know is have Intel poached any driver people? What they lack in experience can be bought. That's what I would do. I'd also get a programme going well in advance to liaise with developers. If they ever starting from scratch with no-one with any experience is be less confident but Raja knows the GPU industry. He also knows what it's like when it doesn't go smoothly. Given that and Intel's resources there should be no excuses.

 

[Troezar]

I don't have as much faith in Raja as others seem to.

Always hard to say unless you worked with them. There may have just been a clash of personalities, creative differences, lack of resources whilst Ryzen was ramping up. Who knows? If he has issues a second time, that might be cause for thinking he's the common denominator

 

[Troezar]

Am I missing something with all this talk about drivers? Haven't Intel been making iGPUs for many years? AFAIK these new dedicated cards are based architecturally on their iGPUs so shouldn't a lot of the driver code also be shared?

Point is they aren't starting from scratch. They're actually the largest maker of GPUs on the planet and have been for years.

That's a good point. I think they're recent issues with CPUs have lead many to underestimate them. I'm expecting a strong bounce back from them in the next few years.

 

[Troezar]

I used to game on a HD 530 pretty often, so driver support doesn't bother me. What bothers me is being able to buy something reasonable for less than £200, instead of a 1050 ti.

I hear rumours that Intel will be particularly pudding the $200 & $300 price points. Makes sense really if their top end will be 3070Ti territory. Most of the sales are below that level and the market is desperately in need of affordable GPUs.

 

[Troezar]

Apisak tweeted that the 448 EU version is close to 6700xt/3070 performance. He has good info from the industry, unlike RGT or MLID.
https://twitter.com/TUM_APISAK/status/1405709858402226182

If it is true then we should expect the biggest card to be above 6800/3070TI performance. Which is amazing for Intel and if the price is right, good news for a lot of people. And even if it is expensive, the competition will bring better prices in the future.

Bring on the competition! I'm expecting Intel to have a lot of volume too.

 

[Troezar]

Judging by that SKU chart, it looks like SKU #2 may be the sweet spot if pricing is sensible (sub-£300). But 12GB of GDDR6 is probably quite expensive atm.

SKUs 3-5 look too weak with crippled memory bus and far less units.

I suspect DG2-512EU parts will be priced too close to the competition making them more of a gamble - do you want to take a punt on the fact that drivers could mature a lot (Intel's answer to FineWine) seeing them get faster and faster over time, versus the risk of finding random games just don't perform well because developers won't have much exposure to the architecture? That's the sort of punt you might take at £250 but not at £500.

You never know maybe we get blown away and Intel come out with 3060Ti performance, good availability and a price under £350, would be quite a shake up but I still have a lot of doubts.

That's a pretty fair assessment. If they can get decent performance for £300-350 that would really change things.