Is Intel likely to release 10nm desktop CPUs in 2021?

[g67575]

I've found some info suggesting that Intel will release desktop and server 10nm++ CPUs in 2021, links here:

Desktop CPU:
https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/intel/microarchitectures/alder_lake

Server:
https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/intel/microarchitectures/sapphire_rapids
https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/File:intel_2019_investor_meeting_sapphire_roadmap.png

Link to estimate of 10nm++ availability in 2021:
https://www.patentlyapple.com/.a/6a0120a5580826970c0240a45c1b1e200c-pi

There's also some talk of a new CPU socket in the near future, with an upgrade to DDR5 RAM.

There were rumours that Intel wouldn't release 10nm desktop CPUs at all, but Intel denied this.
I think since there are apparently plans for 10nm server CPUs in 2021, this significantly increases the possiblity of desktop CPUs also.

 

[g67575]

Lol, that's partly true. 10nm existed for laptops with Cannonlake and now Icelake. I agree though, desktop is what matters for most of us.

I would imagine 10nm+ will be for laptops released this year, link here:

https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/intel/microarchitectures/tiger_lake

 

[g67575]

"if they come as late as 2021 they might try DDR5 to give it something to make consumers smile.

I'm sure it will be at least 2021. They already have the 10th generation planned out for this year and it's 14nm chips + some 10nm laptops.

Also, no planned improvements to 10nm beyond 2021 according to the investor info, suggesting that they will either release desktop 10nm CPUs in 2021, or perhaps not at all.

 

[g67575]

Do you guys think that 10nm desktop CPUs in 2021 makes sense, based on the schedule for 10nm++ in 2021? Or, could this just be Intel blowing smoke to their investors?

Another possibility is Xenon / server CPUs only, if production volumes are low, with 7nm desktop CPUs in 2022 or later. Which seems more likely?

 

[g67575]

Panos - thanks for your reply, I wonder if your reply could be shortened to 2 separate responses, such as, 'I don't know the answer' regarding 10nm and release in 2021 and 'a move to 10nm is problematic for Intel because of potential performance issues related to changing the CPU die size' regarding reasons for delays to 10nm Intel CPUs. If that is so, couldn't a die size shrink potentially be avoided by improving the 10nm process to 10nm++ / whatever they want to call it?

On the other hand, they may simply be running into limits related to the laws of physics, as they approach 7nm/5nm, something that was speculated on years ago when these new process shrinks were hypothesized.

Then, you mention development of 7nm Nvidia GPUs and how you think Nvidia will not be able to shrink the die without removing parts of the chip's design. I suppose what I wonder about this is - Are CPU designs as large, complex and compartmentalised as modern GPUs? And if not, is a direct comparison between GPUs and CPUs informative? Also, isn't the graphics chip included with most CPUs a completely optional feature of chip designs?