Maths help!!

[Ultra_Extreme]

Right this will be really easy im sure to some maths minded folks out there but i need to know this for a system im working on.

If you have 14 results (actually football but doesnt matter)

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N

All of these have a 1pt bet and return @ odds of 1.45

Only 11 win

Each selection also has a secondary 1pt bet of over 1.5 goals which pays at odds of 1.25

Only 12 win

Then each selection has a 1pt double of every over 1.5 goals bet with every win bet this pays average of 1.6



Does this make profit?

 

[Reginald]

Right this will be really easy im sure to some maths minded folks out there but i need to know this for a system im working on.

If you have 14 results (actually football but doesnt matter)

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N

All of these have a 1pt bet and return @ odds of 1.45

Only 11 win

what are we working out?

 

[Ultra_Extreme]

Did you look before i finished m8? sorry should all be there now

 

[Ultra_Extreme]

i should add the addendum that when you double the first bet and the second bet they can be doubled with every game except their own so each double has 13 bets

 

[Ultra_Extreme]

Ive worked it out as follows

These are the combinations of doubles that can be bet, each is 1pt 14x14

Thats 196pts total with 1.6 average odds on double 3 lost and 2 were below 1.5. Capital letter dictates a win bet and lower case dictates +1.5 bet


Abcdefghijklmn
Bcdefghijklmna
Cabdefghijklmn
Dabcefghijklmn
Eabcdfghijklmn
Fabcdeghijklmn
Gabcdefhijklmn
Habcdefgijklmn
Iabcdefghjklmn
Jabcdefghiklmn
Kabcdefghijlmn
Labcdefghijkmn
Mabcdefghijkln
Nabcdefghijklm

Lets take worst case 3 losses A F G + 2 less than 1.5's b n

Same table with losses in red

Abcdefghijklmn
Bcdefghijklmna
Cabdefghijklmn
Dabcefghijklmn
Eabcdfghijklmn
Fabcdeghijklmn
Gabcdefhijklmn
Habcdefgijklmn
Iabcdefghjklmn
Jabcdefghiklmn
Kabcdefghijlmn
Labcdefghijkmn
Mabcdefghijkln
Nabcdefghijklm

thats a 134 winning bets if we assume 1.6 return on doubles

1.6*134-196

This week on doubles thats an 18.6 point profit

very very interesting

 

[Ultra_Extreme]

in case anyone is wondering WHY im doing this and has any interest in spread betting.

The point is that with a complex home vs away form system we can reliably predict about 80% of win matches, selections stretch to about 14 per week with good success. But the profit is only 1-2%

We also have a solid system predicting goals over 1.5 in a given match.

It just so happens that in the foprmer system 95% of games, win or lose, end over 1.5 thus a combination system is in order.

However this sort of system requires substantiual investment (196pts per throw which is almost £200 on even the most frugal betting bank) Thus profit needs to be established first

 

[apeZ]

I'm glad you seem to know what you are talking about, as I sure as hell don't!