Moore at an end

[ozzyDe]

It's seems that Moore's has run out of time it looks almost imposable to keep up the rule of every 2 years a proc will almost double in clock speed when they are having so much problems with the amount of transistor they can get on the present proc's that the time is almost on us that the chip can not be shrunk much more some where around 2024 @ 9nm, so where do we go from here, is bio tech, quantum tech, the manipulation of atoms that will run our PC using holographic storage.
Any one have any Idea's or info on the next step.. Or is the question how much more computing power does the house hold user need.

1995.......100MHz
2000....... 1GHz
2005....... 5GHz
2010.......100GHz
2015....... 1THz (todays super computer)
2020....... 10THz
2025.......100THz
2030....... 1PHz (IBM blue gene)
have a look

Cheers
D

 

[weescott]

welcome to the forum.

You are measuring Moores Law in pure Mhz and not processing power. Moores Law is still valid.

 

[GAMEfreak]

i could see CPU's becoming bigger in size to facilitate more transistors. Moore's law is pretty much irrelevant now as clock speed is no longer important to the future of cpu's if you ask me. we will see a more and more super computer like structure with a lot of parallel chips or quad/8core chips becoming a standard and so on.

as for GPU's and physics processors, i can GPU's going a similar path, becoming dual core then quad core, with more vmem etc, although i question the longevity of crossfire and SLi, after all 3dfx attempted the same sort of thing with its voodoo 2 cards and well, thats died hasnt it?

 

[spookywillow]

moores law is predicted to come to an end in 2020, http://www.processor.com/editorial/article.asp?article=articles/P2713/39p13/39p13.asp&guid=
________
XT225

 

[sinister_stu]

I'm sure that Moore's Law is actually regarding the complexity of ICs as opposed to the clock speed. So it is the number of transistors which doubles every 18 months and not the clock speed as you suggest.

 

[smit101]

I'm sure that Moore's Law is actually regarding the complexity of ICs as opposed to the clock speed. So it is the number of transistors which doubles every 18 months and not the clock speed as you suggest.

Correct.

 

[div0]

It's seems that Moore's has run out of time it looks almost imposable to keep up the rule of every 2 years a proc will almost double in clock speed

it seems someone should have spent more time reading the actual article and less time reading the "user comments"

 

[div0]

Oh and considering my current 2.8GHz CPU is at least 2 years old, then it would seem that your "GHz doubling very 2 years" actually came to an end a long time ago!

 

[Efaws]

Its hardly a law, just something a random bloke came up with, duno why they call it that?

Personally I think Intel made that as a statement so that they could make as much as possible out of their industry, its possible for them to make the die bigger and add some bigger cooling, to bump up the CPU speed, but do they do it ? Nope. Saying it should double every 18 months gives them basically nearly a hundred years in the industry of making ridiuclous sums of money from people who constantly upgrade - if they just went for power and pure power we might be at 100ghz by now, but then they would have hit the CPU limit, and wouldnt be able to make any more money out of slight clock ramps.

Its similar to phones, you can get PDAs with 800mhz processors that can play quake 3 easily, althought there slightly bigger, why dont we have this in a phone? Simple, if you churn out crap VGA cameras bolted to 20mhz CPU phones, and upgrade them slowly but surely, as people upgrade every 12 months NOT just when they see something slightly better your business model will last another 5 or 10 years if you stretch it out until the latest innovation is out - in Japan they have full internet phones with 5gb hard drives and 10megapixel cameras, why dont we? Because people are still paying plenty of cash for phones with 1.3 and 2 megapixel cameras, and they will buy 3 megapixel... and 4 and 5 megapixels.... if a 10megapixel with a hard drive came on the market over here, everyone would want it and any other phone out would look absolutely abismal, who would buy a 2 megapixel phone when they can have a 10 megapixel and not need to upgrade for ages? no one

 

[VIPER__]

Its hardly a law, just something a random bloke came up with, duno why they call it that?

I disagree.

My opinion on the matter is that its called Moore's law is because companies like Intel and AMD. Have Tried to keep to it! If we all remember Moore's law was modified from every 12months too 18months, i think a few years ago!?. But unfortunitly because of the silicon tecnology that these companies have been using Its been very hard, near impossible for them to continue to produce Chips that double there Transistor count and/or processing power every 18months.

I agree it would be nice to have that kind of performance increase, every 18 months. But not using silicon based chips. I think using opticfibers are been developed to further increase processor performance. But not sure about the others suggested. But iam not knocking them as potentials.

VIPER.

 

[janesssssy]

Its hardly a law, just something a random bloke came up with, duno why they call it that?

Personally I think Intel made that as a statement so that they could make as much as possible out of their industry, its possible for them to make the die bigger and add some bigger cooling, to bump up the CPU speed, but do they do it ? Nope. Saying it should double every 18 months gives them basically nearly a hundred years in the industry of making ridiuclous sums of money from people who constantly upgrade - if they just went for power and pure power we might be at 100ghz by now, but then they would have hit the CPU limit, and wouldnt be able to make any more money out of slight clock ramps.

Its similar to phones, you can get PDAs with 800mhz processors that can play quake 3 easily, althought there slightly bigger, why dont we have this in a phone? Simple, if you churn out crap VGA cameras bolted to 20mhz CPU phones, and upgrade them slowly but surely, as people upgrade every 12 months NOT just when they see something slightly better your business model will last another 5 or 10 years if you stretch it out until the latest innovation is out - in Japan they have full internet phones with 5gb hard drives and 10megapixel cameras, why dont we? Because people are still paying plenty of cash for phones with 1.3 and 2 megapixel cameras, and they will buy 3 megapixel... and 4 and 5 megapixels.... if a 10megapixel with a hard drive came on the market over here, everyone would want it and any other phone out would look absolutely abismal, who would buy a 2 megapixel phone when they can have a 10 megapixel and not need to upgrade for ages? no one

I personally agree with you, totaly!

 

[m3csl2004]

I disagree.

My opinion on the matter is that its called Moore's law is because companies like Intel and AMD. Have Tried to keep to it! If we all remember Moore's law was modified from every 12months too 18months, i think a few years ago!?. But unfortunitly because of the silicon tecnology that these companies have been using Its been very hard, near impossible for them to continue to produce Chips that double there Transistor count and/or processing power every 18months.

I agree it would be nice to have that kind of performance increase, every 18 months. But not using silicon based chips. I think using opticfibers are been developed to further increase processor performance. But not sure about the others suggested. But iam not knocking them as potentials.

VIPER.

you are indeed correct matey - allough not gonna be used anytime soon, light ray interconnects offer massive bandwidth and will allow components to talk to each other much faster