Mortgage Rate Rises

dirtychinchilla said:
I'm set on 5 years now. Weathering current politics is likely going to be a good thing. Rates dropping far below where they are now seems unlikely, and I appreciate the financial predictability.

We've got a rate from Santander of 3.89% with an LTV of 67%, which I'm happy with.
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Sensible. The upside of a potential small saving in a couple of years on a shorter term is much lower than the potential downside if something happens that causes things to go **** up. Security is king on a residential mortgage.
 
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jaybee said:
I just can only see rates dropping. Slowly dropping, but still dropping.
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Remember we have an election in max 3 years, of which reform are likely to win. I'm not normally a doom and gloom guy, but reform are a totally new party, with barely any experience to fall back on. No one to give help advice etc. Everyone for the most part will be new to government. Who do they go to for advice? When kier become prime minister Tony Blair spoke tm him and gave his advice. Who does that for farage? Trump?

It's a huge unknown and markets don't like unknowns. They like stability and reliability which reform can't give yet.

So at that point, it's very easy to see things going all over the place and rates following.
 
jaybee said:
True. A good tactic maybe to fix for 5 years in 2-3 years time, before all the election uncertainty kicks off. I'm hoping by early 2027 we see rates in the low 3% range.
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Is my wish. I renew 15 days. I have 2 years fix. I wanted 3 but with the higher interest rate decided against it. At that point I intend to fix for 5 years and enjoy whatever sub 3 percent rate I hope I get then. I could even happily go for 10 years to see me through the apocalypse that follows reform government
 
But in times of uncertainty and economic crisis, we could see rates hit the floor. Next thing you know, rates get low, low, low, low. Ask Flo Rida.
 
jaybee said:
But in times of uncertainty and economic crisis, we could see rates hit the floor. Next thing you know, rates get low, low, low, low. Ask Flo Rida.
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We’re not in times of economic uncertainty. It’s not even a time of fiscal constraint in terms of bank lending.

Retail mortgage interest rates are basically the same now as they were in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. They were around this rate up until 2016.

Something happened in 2016 where by rates cracked down to near zero. They were starting to creep back up again back to post 2008 levels between 2018 and early 2020. They then crashed again in Covid and subsequently spiked.

As mentioned, now rates have come down, we are back in our post 2008 position.
 
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unwashed potato! said:
Remember we have an election in max 3 years, of which reform are likely to win. I'm not normally a doom and gloom guy, but reform are a totally new party, with barely any experience to fall back on. No one to give help advice etc. Everyone for the most part will be new to government. Who do they go to for advice? When kier become prime minister Tony Blair spoke tm him and gave his advice. Who does that for farage? Trump?

It's a huge unknown and markets don't like unknowns. They like stability and reliability which reform can't give yet.

So at that point, it's very easy to see things going all over the place and rates following.
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We'll they're all going to be tories by then anyway :D
 
b0rn2sk8 said:
We’re not in times of economic uncertainty. It’s not even a time of fiscal constraint in terms of bank lending.

Retail mortgage interest rates are basically the same now as they were in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. They were around this rate up until 2016.

Something happened in 2016 where by rates cracked down to near zero. They were starting to creep back up again back to post 2008 levels between 2018 and early 2020. They then crashed again in Covid and subsequently spiked.

As mentioned, now rates have come down, we are back in our post 2008 position.
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Here's the historic rates:

The 2008 financial crash is easy to see, and covid reset the recovery that was just beginning.

I think we might see one or two 0.25% drops this year, or it will remain largley flat...but that's about it if nothing mental happens in the global economy, but of course thats no guarentee!

 
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b0rn2sk8 said:
We’re not in times of economic uncertainty. It’s not even a time of fiscal constraint in terms of bank lending.

Retail mortgage interest rates are basically the same now as they were in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. They were around this rate up until 2016.

Something happened in 2016 where by rates cracked down to near zero. They were starting to creep back up again back to post 2008 levels between 2018 and early 2020. They then crashed again in Covid and subsequently spiked.

As mentioned, now rates have come down, we are back in our post 2008 position.
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I meant if Reform got in in a few years. :)
 
mattyfez said:
Here's the historic rates:

The 2008 financial crash is easy to see, and covid reset the recovery that was just beginning.

I think we might see one or two 0.25% drops this year, or it will remain largley flat...but that's about it if nothing mental happens in the global economy, but of course thats no guarentee!

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I didn’t post the bank rates because they don’t really mirror the retail mortgage rates over the same period except very recently.

The table 1/3 down this page gives a much better picture of historical retail mortgage rates:

www.mortgageable.co.uk

History of Mortgage Interest Rates UK - Mortgageable

How have mortgage interest rates changed over time in the UK? Here we explore the historical timeline in more detail.
www.mortgageable.co.uk www.mortgageable.co.uk

You can see there was a fairly flat baseline between 3% and 4% from 2009 to 2016. It dropped down for a few years post the referendum and only started crawling back up just before covid where all hell broke loose.
 
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unwashed potato! said:
Remember we have an election in max 3 years, of which reform are likely to win. I'm not normally a doom and gloom guy, but reform are a totally new party, with barely any experience to fall back on. No one to give help advice etc. Everyone for the most part will be new to government. Who do they go to for advice? When kier become prime minister Tony Blair spoke tm him and gave his advice. Who does that for farage? Trump?

It's a huge unknown and markets don't like unknowns. They like stability and reliability which reform can't give yet.

So at that point, it's very easy to see things going all over the place and rates following.
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We have had an eighteen month learning period from Labour which is just about settling down. No recent experience of government at any level.
 
Without wanting to turn this into a political thread.. unless they get an outright majority then they're not winning and I don't see that happening.

However what the likely ushers in is a ranbow coalition and repeated collapses which to be fair Italy etc do fine(ish) with but is new to us. So yes I also predict instability.

Just not with Nigel in charge going turbo Truss thank god.
 
mattyfez said:
Here's the historic rates:

The 2008 financial crash is easy to see, and covid reset the recovery that was just beginning.

I think we might see one or two 0.25% drops this year, or it will remain largley flat...but that's about it if nothing mental happens in the global economy, but of course thats no guarentee!

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Looking at this, I'm tempted to fix for ten years at 3.x%!!
 
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