My Official £50-£46,000 betting challenge

robfosters

robfosters

robfosters

Caporegime
Joined
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Welling, London
At the weekend I will be embarking on a gambling challenge that I have been told about.

The aim is simple.

Each day, I will pick 3 bets which have prices of 1.02. Extremely low odds which really should be coming in every single time without fail.

I'll put my whole bank (starting at £50) on each one. Basically if this is done every day for 16 weeks, the £50 will become £46,000.

Sounds easy....probably isn't. There are a few hazards.

1. Although 1.02 shots come in 99% of the time, like anything, they can fail. However, the chance is rare. For example, a game at 0-0 at half time will have odds of 1.03 for their to be 4 goals or less in the second half. Very likely to come in.

2. Courage. If I get to £10k+, will I have the guts to stick it all on for a profit of £200. I will wait and see. I can't say until I get there.

3. Liquidity. Sometimes, particularly towards the end, the money wont be available in betfair on one bet. I may have to end up splitting it between different bets. So my 3 bets a day may have to turn into 9 or so.

I'm gonna give it a go as I have nothing better to do. I'll update this post periodically for anyone interested to show how i'm getting on.

Rob
 
booyaka said:
EDIT - in fact if the OP doesn't mind me crashing this thread - i'll start tomorrow with a £10 again and go from there??
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Not at all. Let us know how you get on.

For me it's 3 bets a day at 1.03 or under.

Sports I will be playing are football (leagues and teams I know), Cricket and Snooker.

All the rest are minefields and should be avoided. particularly tennis :mad:
 
peterattheboro said:
Will you only be doing live betting then?
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Hardly any 1.02-1.03 prices before the off. Usually just in-play.

Football is the best. You can decent 1.02's before the off. Sometimes more. For example, Liverpool play Newcastle on Friday. This fixture always and I mean always has goals.

The price for 1 or more goals is 1.07. That's 5 MORE points than 1.02. So in theory, if you bet on that game, you could do your entire 3 bets in one bet. Although you would be breaking the 1.02 rule. If it came in, great. But if not, you would be kicking yourself.

All you want is one goal. Nailed on imo.
 
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booyaka said:
betting.jpg
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How are you doing this? Do you have a spreadsheet setup?
 
If you bet with Betfair, particularly in the total goals markets, you can lay your bets off if it looks like it's going wrong. At least you can then recoup a fair chunk of stake money rather than losing the lot. It might then take you an extra week or so to hit your target, but it's better than no chance at all.

I was speaking to a regular betfair gambler today. He told me that the 46k target is virtually impossible. However, he runs 2 banks. He varies the bets on each bank. However, one bank is left to run to see how far it gets towards the 365 bet target (46k) as it accelerates rapidly towards the end. The other bank has it's profits withdrawn regularly. He tries to do around 6 bets a day. This gets him to 5k in 40 days. He then withdraws £4950 and starts again.

He said this year he has not reached the 46k target once. However he has reached 5k 3 times. A 15k return can't be argued with.

If I am lucky enough to reach 5k, I will withdraw and do the same as him.
 
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Clipsey said:
Surely you could do this in a much shorter space of time, no? Just keep placing bet after bet?
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You could, but you would end up just searching for the right prices and lumping on blind. Bad move. Only bet what you know about.

Bloke on betfair done his bank tonight laying Hamilton to beat Chisnall 4-0 in the darts. Idiotic. Never lay straight sets victories in darts unless the likes of Taylor or Wade involved. Then obviously lay their oppo to win in straight sets.

I still maintain goals markets are the best for this. I would like to know statistically, when a match is 0-0 at half time, what are the likelihood of there being 5 goals in the second half.

EDIT: just checked the prem and there have been no games this year where a HT 0-0 has had 5 second half goals. Couple of 4 goalers involving Man City, but I would stay away from them anyway as they have the ability to turn it on and knock in 4 goals in 30 minutes.
 
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I have'nt updated since my OP!

Anyway, I got up to £650, then blew it all on a tennis match. It hurt.........a lot.

Gonna start again though at the start of the season, possibly look at some Olympics bets as well.
 
Tito said:
Thread revival, Any one up for doing this again? i'm going to start today, only with £10 though something to do when bored.

Going to try and stick to the strict rule of 1.1 odds or less.
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OK. I'll start tomorrow with a tenner.

One thing I have noticed lately is that the prices for the over/under 0.5 market have improved. I can get 1.05 for there to be a goal in the Bilbao V Barca game. A year or so back that would have been 1.02.
 
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Actually fellas, betting these 1.02-1.10 shots is too mind numbingly dull for me.

If you are working on that basis of a goal being scored. then I've realised it's utterly pointless to go for that market at the ridiculously low odds that are offered and making your 50p a time. You are much better off laying the draw with a view to back when a goal is scored.

Even a £4 lay bet with a £10 liability will get you on average around £1.80 profit when greened up.You can use the basic cash out on Betfair for this. No brain work involved. Although I would deffo go via the exchange. you can calculate manually using this calculator http://www.backlaybettingcalculator.com/

By the time you get to £50, you can be bringing in profits of over £20 on each bet for a goal being scored. Plus there is far higher liquidity on the match odds market than the over/unders.

If you wanted to, you could even setup an automated bot to do this for you.

If you pick 10 matches correctly in a row, you'll be far far higher than you would be on overs/unders markets.

One thing, dont pick mismatches. If you pick matches where the teams are priced 1.4 and 5.0 respectively, you will fall into the trap of the draw price lowering if the outsiders nick a goal. Then the likely outcome will be for the favs to nick a goal back, lowering it even further. Stick to nice, evenly matched games, like West Ham V Palace for example.

The soccer mystic tool on Bet Angel is brilliant at predicting price movements. You can play out loads of scenarios on it to see your possible profit.
 
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